RADIO
It's a cliché to say that those managers who finally dip their toe into salary cap leagues never go back to snake drafts. Snake drafts have their own charm. There is simply more going on, and thus, more fun to have when participating in a salary cap draft. There become no bounds on how one wants to build their roster.
Snake drafts require managers to keep their eye on late targets to fill out their roster. In salary cap leagues, however, a manager can build their entire roster around multiple stars and then continually fill in with late-round values. The cheaper players are key; finding those that elevate and extend a roster.
For this exercise, we're targeting hitters $5 and under. That rules out roughly the top 200 players in drafts. From this vantage point, some managers may look for high-risk, high-reward plays to strike big with a small investment. There are plenty of safer guys to acquire as well, to balance out a stars-and-scrubs draft approach.
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Kyle Schwarber (OF, WAS) - $5
The only reason Schwarber is in this position is because of his terrible 2020; that weird, unparalleled 2020. How much you hold 2020 performances against someone is the big separator in this year's draft. Yet with Schwarber, his batted-ball profile wasn't all that far off from his career standard.
Schwarber hit the ball super hard last year, ranking in the 95th percentile in exit velocity and 86th percentile in hard-hit rate. He continued to have an excellent walk rate, and his K-rate wasn't that far off from recent seasons. What happened last year was a plummeting launch angle thanks to a career-high 51.2 ground-ball rate and a 27.8 chase percentage.
Schwarber is going to be playing nearly every day in a good lineup (a theme for finding great value late in drafts). If he can elevate the ball again this season, his '20 difficulties should be behind him. The power and batting eye are still there.
Josh Donaldson (3B, MIN) - $5
Donaldson is going to be hitting in the middle of a great lineup every day. (See?) We have even less to go off of from his past season than most since he only saw 81 at-bats thanks to a calf injury. Nevertheless, the storyline is very similar to Schwarber's. One man switched teams before the pandemic season; the other after. They both struggled in the weird year but have underlying numbers that should make managers confident in a bounce-back.
For Donaldson, exactly like Schwarber, the launch-angle suffered thanks to a career-high 55.2 ground-ball rate. And yet: the walk rate was a career-best 17.6; the K-rate was identical to 2019; hard-hit percentage was also a career-best, at 53.4. All the numbers are from a small sample, which is exactly the point. If Donaldson is recovered from his calf injury, there is no reason to think he won't be a great hitter again. And no one should be surprised that it could have been hard to recover, adjust, and overcome an injury during the pandemic season.
Buster Posey (C, SF) - $4
Posey opted out of last season but was immediately reinstalled as the Giants' starting catcher after the team decided Joey Bart needed more seasoning. Bart's time is coming, but Posey will be a regular in 2021.
Normally, finding a safe player late is about locating those who can accumulate lots of counting stats by just being everyday players. That has tremendous value. Posey is almost the opposite. He should actually help managers in rate stats, which will be very rare from the catcher position this season.
Posey batted at least .284 every year from 2010 through 2018. His K-rate was in the top seven percent of the sport or better for four of the past five seasons. From a position where even the best non-Realmuto guys are expected to hit poorly, Posey can actually supply that. He won't collect much in other categories, but depending on roster construction, this could be a preferable way for many managers to turn.
Top BA, all players with at least 3,000 plate appearances between 2010 and 2018
Top BA, catchers with at least 1,000 plate appearances between 2010 and 2020
High-Upside Plays
Gavin Lux is going for $3 on average. Alex Kirilloff is going for $2. There are a few other players in this same mold: elite prospects on the precipice or already in line for major playing time. If they can put it together and earn that opportunity, managers want to be the ones to grab them before they become super expensive. The potential reward is so enticing.
A manager's ability to take this chance depends on a number of factors, including bench size and roster construction. The downside is obvious. If they don't end up garnering or being given at-bats, they are wasting a fantasy roster spot that could be producing in other areas.
Carlos Santana (1B, KC) - $3
Then we come to the mirror image of the upside play. Santana, at this point in his career, is boring. He is also reliable. For each of the past three seasons, and four of the past five, he has finished in the top three percent of the league in walk rate. This is a guy who plays every day, gets on base at an amazing clip, and will accumulate counting stats.
Santana's batting average this year will likely fall somewhere in the middle of his .281 from 2019 and .199 from 2020. That is fine with his managers, especially those playing in OBP leagues. His value comes from all the other areas.
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