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With the 2021 MLB Draft in the books and the 2021 season turning up in intensity with each at-bat, we are back to a familiar posture we haven't seen since 2019: 20 rounds worth of amateur prospects have entered the professional realm and many will promptly get down to business in their organization's farm system.
With no minor league season in 2020 and a significantly shortened draft, it's easy to forget how much of an impact can come from a mid-season draft when big league clubs and Fantasy Baseball Managers alike are in desperate need of a homestretch spark. Prospect call-ups at the tail-end of the regular season offer a last shot at acquiring difference-making talent, but it has to be the perfect timing and situation to manifest.
We are going to take a look at ten 2021 MLB Draftees: the five who are most likely to arrive in the majors quickly without missing a beat and the five who are in great position to rise quickly through the minors and find sustained success early despite under-the-radar status. Whether you need reinforcements for this season, 2022 x-factors, or long-term Dynasty League power moves, there are solutions scattered throughout the draft. If we don't want such opportunities to slip through our fingers, we must familiarize ourselves with the class so we're prepared to capitalize when they're called to the show.
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Trial by Fire: The Readiest of the Bunch
Kumar Rocker (RHP, NYM): Kumar Rocker might not even be the best Vanderbilt Commodore selected in the 2021 Draft with teammate Jack Leiter going second overall to the Texas Rangers, but the 6'5, 245-lb. righty might have even more upside early in his professional career. Many already believe that Rocker has leap-frogged the top Mets pitching prospects in Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn off the strength of his NCAA pedigree and physical gifts. In three years of SEC baseball, Rocker holds a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28 wins, and 321 strikeouts over 39 GS (42 G) across 236.2 IP; and in 2021, Rocker produced a 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 179 K in 122.0 IP over 20 GS.
He found a happy medium in year three between strikeout aggression and control, ending with 13.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9, and though he struggled more with allowing homers this season, he still only allowed eight (0.6 HR/9). The tenth overall pick has struggled with fastball inconsistency, but his dynamic slider and developing changeup should go a long way towards minimizing damage if his velocity dips again. Demonstration of control and heavy strikeout proclivity, imposing size, and his twenty starts in 2021 averaging over 6.0 IP per outing paints a promising portrait of his maturity and durability, while Jack Leiter could be a more gradual case. With New York narrowly atop the NL East, Kumar Rocker could provide a late spark out of the bullpen or the back of the rotation where the Mets are relatively weaker. He could just as easily arrive in 2022 if there's room or he polishes up, but this is a call-up that should be anticipated for several months in advance.
Henry Davis (C, PIT): The Pittsburgh Pirates saved money by taking Louisville's Henry Davis first overall, but they still got tons of bang for their buck by filling a gaping void in their farm system with a superbly talented player hailing from a college baseball program quickly becoming known as a backstop factory. The 21-year-old Davis took just 359 AB in three seasons with the Cards due to the shortened 2020 campaign, but he made an emphatic impression in that time, knocking 14 doubles, 18 home runs, stealing 11 bases in 14 tries, and finishing with slashes of .372/.481/.696 and .370/.482/.663, respectively, across 227 AB.
According to MLB.com, before drafting Davis, Pittsburgh had just one catcher among their top-30 prospects (Endy Rodriguez) and drafted only one more in addition to Davis (Wyatt Hendrie, #193). At the major league level, Jacob Stallings has really come along as an astute offensive option with top-tier defensive chops, but his understudy Michael Perez has been consistently sub-par since he debuted in 2018. The Pirates have little to fight for at 36-58, but their top draft pick is worth deploying in the short term. With the HR-power at his disposal, athleticism that allows him to steal bases and stretch hits to the max, and a 31:24 BB:K ratio over 228 PA in 2021 that demonstrates discipline beyond his age, he is certainly capable of contributing with his bat when the opportunity arrives, and he stands to learn a lot under the defensive tutelage of Stallings. It won't be immediate, but there just aren't many factors in his path delaying this progression.
Jack Leiter (RHP, TEX): The second pick of the draft belonged to Texas and they opted for the blue-chip pedigree and lineage of Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, nephew and cousin to former big leaguers Mark Leiter and Mark Leiter Jr., and the son of two-time All-Star and three-time World Series Champion Al Leiter. He has a smaller frame than Rocker at 6'1, 205-lb., but his success in two years at Vanderbilt is undeniable.
In 125.2 IP over two seasons, Leiter finished with a 2.08 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 201 total strikeouts. Most impressively, in his final season with the Commodores, he was able to take games deep to the tune of 110.0 IP over 18 starts for an average of just over 6.0 IP per start. Leiter did however have his struggles at the NCAA level, most notable with home run and walk allowance, averaging 1.0 HR/9 and 3.8 BB/9 for his career.
The Rangers' prospect rankings are actually well saturated with RHP talent, but none of them match Leiter in demonstrated talent, potential, or championship lineage for that matter. He probably has a bit more time until he reaches the majors when compared to Kumar Rocker due to lesser experience, the HR/BB issues, and the comparative physical tools; but his ability to make batters miss and go late into games is advanced well beyond his years, and it shouldn't take too long for Jack Leiter to rise through the ranks for an organization in perpetual need of pitching improvements.
Colton Cowser (OF, BAL): Colton Cowser, as the fifth overall pick to the Baltimore Orioles this year out of Sam Houston State, might just profile as the premier power/speed player in the entire draft. While he has room to grow as a defender, that is expected, and he has all of the physical tools to make it happen as a 6'3, 195-lb. outfielder with wheels. In the shortened NCAA season of 2020, Cowser didn't have the time to get going, and finished with a .742 OPS in 55 AB. However, as a freshman, he hit seven HR, stole nine bases (zero CS), and hit for a 1.052 OPS in 216 AB.
Cowser capped off his college career with 16 home runs, 17 steals (in 20 attempts), and a slash of .374/.490/.680 and a count of 42 walks to 32 strikeouts in 203 AB. Overall, in 474 AB over a three-year college career, Cowser collected 63 XBH (30 doubles, nine triples, 24 home runs), 31 steals (five CS), and a .354/.460/.608 slash boosted by a 76:70 BB/K count. He has intelligence in the box, intelligence on the base-paths, and he is improving at an exponential rate thanks to a great cast of teammates and national team experience along the way. The Orioles have outfield prospects of varying calibers throughout their farm system, but Cowser already possesses the tools and offensive discipline necessary to make a quick ascent up the minor league rungs. With an eye for the strike zone, across-the-board XBH capability, and a keen sense of base-stealing opportunities, Colton Cowser is a top name to watch for a fast MLB arrival.
Sam Bachman (RHP, LAA): Sam Bachman was a bit of a money-saving move by the Angels at ninth overall, but the pick could easily start to pay dividends in the not-so-distant future. A 6'1, 235-lb. ace out of Miami (Ohio) University, the biggest aspect of his profile has been in his improvement over three NCAA seasons. Over the first 19 starts of his career which spanned his freshman year and the shortened 2020 season, Bachman held a 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 99.1 IP with 106 strikeouts.
For his final season in Oxford, he went 59.2 IP over 12 starts for about 5.0 IP per appearance with a 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, just 17 walks, and an impressive 93 strikeouts. Overall, Bachman improved his college K/9 from 8.9 as a freshman to 14.0 in his final year, and he amazingly only gave up four home runs in 159.o IP. The Angels have pitching talent in all echelons of their farm system, but this is an organization that has constantly found itself in need of pitching help throughout the roster, and with Bachman's high-upside fastball/slider combo, increased strike zone control, and ability to minimize long-ball damage, he's one of the college arms from the 2021 Draft in the best position to make a quick climb to the majors as either a reliever or breaking into the backend of the rotation.
Fast-Track: Players Who Could Get the Call Soon
Jordan Wicks (LHP, CHC): A 6'3, 220-lb. lefty who averaged 6.15 IP per start over his final season at Kansas State. With solid control over long balls and the strike zone, the Big 12-tested Wicks has what it takes to gain the trust of the Cubs franchise early in his minor league career.
Sal Frelick (OF, MIL): A clubhouse spark and the reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Frelick finished his final season at Boston College with 25 XBH, 13 SB (five CS), and a .359/.443/.559 slash. With advanced defensive tools, a winning attitude, and a nice mix of XBH ability and speed, Frelick could be hard to keep below Double-A for too long.
Ty Madden (RHP, DET): The Tigers were living a dream being able to land the 6'3, 215-lb. Madden at 32nd overall after he posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 137 strikeouts in 113.2 IP over 18 starts in 2021 for the Texas Longhorns. With a powerhouse fastball/slider combo, Madden could work his way into the majors through the bullpen super fast, where he could stick around in a talented pool of young Detroit arms.
Jud Fabian (OF, BOS): Jud Fabian is an athletic, SEC-tested outfielder with double-digit stolen-base speed and phenomenal power, hitting for 32 home runs in 461 NCAA AB. With a surprising lack of OF depth at the upper tiers of Boston's prospect list, Fabian could blast his way into the majors in little time if he continues to improve on his plate discipline.
Gunnar Hoglund (RHP, TOR): The Blue Jays have proven on multiple occasions of late that they aren't shy about promoting prospects early if impressed, regardless of the position. The 6'4, 220-lb. Hoglund out of Ole Miss produced a 2.87 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 62.2 IP over 11 starts in his final college season, and in 154.o NCAA IP he allowed only 35 walks against 186 strikeouts. He could be among the next early arrivals for Toronto if he can put a cap on home run damage.
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