RADIO
Snap counts are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production but they paint a clear picture with the necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world, but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, their snaps will not reflect that talent.
We do not have much of a sample for rising or falling snaps but for the sake of trying to identify worthwhile trends early, that's the basis we will use. Snap% listed reflects a player's usage in Week 5 contests.
If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon and ask away.
Rising Snaps
Dawson Knox, TE, BUF (96% rostered)
Dawson Knox is having a breakout season in a big way. He led all Bills pass-catchers with 96% of the snaps played versus Kansas City and has essentially been their WR3 this year due to the limitations of Cole Beasley. Knox's five TD lead all TEs and have him tied for 2nd in the NFL among all pass-catchers. While he may not be the first (or even second) option on this roster, there is plenty to go around due to Josh Allen's prowess as a passer.
Some might say that these are garbage-time TDs given that the Bills have absolutely dominated their opponents since Week 1 versus the Steelers, but only one of Knox's five TDs have come in the 4th quarter. He is likely to remain heavily TD-dependent for his value to sustain, but given the lack of general talent for TEs in fantasy, the fact that he should get a handful more throughout the season is enough justification to roster and even start him regularly.
Devontae Booker, RB, NYG (88% rostered)
This snap jump is only due to Saquon Barkley's gruesome ankle injury. Early reports suggest that Saquon will only miss 4-6 weeks with this issue but you never really know.
Obviously, if Saquon is deemed out for a longer period of time, more attention should be paid to Booker, who will likely take on their RB1 role for the rest of the season but if it's only a month, he is of little interest. You probably have better starters available and will maybe utilize him once or twice. Booker is a marginal talent who only returned value in Week 5 due to a TD. Those will be few-and-far-between in the Giants' offense.
Henry Ruggs III, WR, LV (84% rostered)
The Raiders might finally be figuring out that their first-round pick from 2020 should be used more. Week 5 was a new career-high in snap% for Ruggs, and while it was his least-targeted game of the season, he managed to pick up 51 yards on those three looks, further establishing a case for him as a primary piece in the offense.
Ruggs may never end up as an alpha WR who commands 25%+ target shares but he is an objectively good player who can play a high-level role as a deep threat/YAC target. The Raiders simply need to manufacture more opportunities for Ruggs to get in space and attack defenses.
Ruggs will remain a tough player to trust in fantasy until his targets aren't so volatile, but given his abilities, you can consider him in the FLEX/WR3 spot in a pinch.
Falling Snaps
Trey Sermon, RB, SF (3% rostered)
This is extremely disappointing for anyone (myself included) who touted Trey Sermon as a more talented back than Elijah Mitchell. Week 5 was Mitchell's first game back from injury and he absolutely dominated the snaps and touches for SF. Mitchell's 68% share was similar to his first two weeks where he lead the backfield and eclipsed Sermon who has three total snaps in games where Mitchell is active.
Fortunately, Sermon is coached by Kyle Shanahan who is notoriously fluid with his RB room. There is no telling what the snap-share will look like week-in and week-out. While this upcoming week is a BYE, there is an air of uncertainty around this team. Trey Lance will likely be relegated to his backup role with Jimmy Garoppolo back and given the record of SF, the backfield could be shaken up to incorporate both Mitchell and Sermon to throw teams off. Trey Sermon created 89 yards on 19 carries in Week 4 and was unable to build momentum. He could do just enough in practice these next two weeks to force the issue.
There is no fear of Jeff Wilson Jr. impacting the RB room this year so do not give up hope on Sermon (yet).
Kenyan Drake, RB, LV (18% rostered)
The Raiders are hilarious. They're either incompetent or fully trolling the fantasy community. The signing of Kenyan Drake to a 2-year, $11 million dollar deal was seen as the end time for former first-round RB Josh Jacobs, but as the snap-shares have played out, it seems like the opposite.
According to Raiders' fans who watch their games more intently than I do, the issue for Kenyan Drake is pass-blocking. He is getting Derek Carr nearly killed when assigned pass-pro reps and that lack of skill is enough to get nearly out-snapped by career satellite back, Jalen Richard.
Do not drop Kenyan Drake just yet because Josh Jacobs is not the healthiest individual of all-time, but just know that the outlook is mighty bleak.
Cole Beasley, WR, BUF (39% rostered)
This likely goes far beyond football and into Beasley's personal decisions, but it must be mentioned that the play of Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox thus far has made Cole Beasley an afterthought in the Bills' high-flying offense.
Even Zack Moss is getting in the mix as a receiver. Beasley is talented in his own right, but these off-field issues are unsurprisingly carrying over into a locker room that has Super Bowl aspirations. His outlook for the rest of the season is entirely dependent on him, and him alone. Whether he bites the bullet for his team and yours is quite unlikely and if you hold in fantasy, I cannot blame you but would advise not starting him until there's more clarity on his playing time.
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