RADIO
Welcome to Week 14! We have cleared the halfway mark of the regular season, and time is flying!
I'm excited for the handful of names I'm going to write up in this piece. Various pitchers from all kinds of different backgrounds have burst onto the scene lately and I think we can really find some gems on the waiver wire this week.
Keep in mind your league type and your team's situation as you read. There is a good mix of veterans and young guys here, and they have different outlooks in terms of the pitch counts and how their teams will use them. Let's get into it!
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Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (22% Rostered)
There was some hype early on after McClanahan debuted with the Rays on April 29. He came out with a strong, yet short, outing where he racked up a 24% swinging-strike rate and dazzled with high-nineties velocity and a wipeout slider. Since then it's been a bumpy ride. He gave up a lot of home runs early on, and had a very short leash, typically not making it out of the fourth inning. However, things have turned for the better recently, and it was pretty easy to see coming.
Two things are really working in McClanahan's favor. First, the pitch count is ticking up:
We'll see where it goes from here, but it seems safe to say that if he continues having success on the mound, he will be allowed to extend towards 90 pitches. That is more than enough pitches to really contribute to a fantasy team.
The second thing is just that his numbers are amazing this year. What are the three most important pitching stats to look at, you ask? I'll tell you! It's strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate. Shane is sparking in all three categories. He has a strikeout rate at 29%, a walk rate at 7.5%, and a ground ball rate of 49%. Those are all great numbers. The runs he's given up have disproportionately come from the home run ball, which he has had no luck whatsoever on - with a taxing 24.2% HR/FB rate. The league average ratio is about 10%, so it's clear that things will improve in that regard as we move forward.
This guy has a 22% SwStr% on his curveball, a 24.8% mark on his slider, and a 9.4% mark on his four-seamer. He has three awesome pitches. He looks like a stud on the mound and the sky is the limit for this kid in the future. Add him now in all formats.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (34% Rostered)
I've said a lot about Skubal over the last couple of weeks in this post, but the rostered percentage just isn't budging. It makes sense that people would be slow to jump on him, after how disastrous the start of his career was.
However, since the calendar turned to May, Skubal has been very solid. He has an elite 13.7% SwStr% with a 29.8% CSW% over that time while striking out 67 batters and walking just 19 in 48.2 innings. He has gone over 90 pitches in nine straight outings, so there don't seem to be any major restraints on him. Pitching for the Tigers, and still giving up his share of barrels, he may not win a ton of games for you, but he should continue to be an awesome source of strikeouts while limiting damage moving forward. He should be rostered in most league setups.
Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels (17% Rostered)
Over the last month of baseball, only five pitchers have a better CSW% than the Angels lefty (Gausman, deGrom, Glasnow, Burnes, and Gomber). Those are some pretty lofty names to be mentioned with.
Sandoval also boasts the single highest SwStr% in a start from anybody who threw more than 80 pitches. That was on June 6th when he racked up a 29.7% swinging-strike rate on 101 offerings. He struck out ten Mariners in that six-inning outing while giving up two earned runs.
He now has three straight starts with an elite CSW% (37.6%, 33%, 35.8% chronologically). For the year his 12.3% SwStr% and 35.8% are really impressive, and he also has a great 55% ground-ball rate. There's a lot to like here. The hesitation is that Sandoval is not exactly a shiny new toy, he's been in the league off and on since 2019 and really has only been impressive over this short span of a handful of starts recently. He has a strong arm and is young enough that this might be a legitimate breakout, so I'm adding him right now everywhere I can.
Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees (42% Rostered)
It was a long time coming, but Taillon finally pieced together a dominant outing this week, firing off 6.1 innings of five-hit, one-run ball against the Royals while striking out six. I say it was a long time coming because Taillon has something that very few pitchers have - a four-seam fastball that is really tough to make contact with. His four-seamer has the highest swinging-strike rate in the entire league at 16.3%. Yes, even higher than Jacob deGrom, who sits at third with a 15.2% mark (Scherzer is second at 15.3%).
The rest of Taillon's arsenal has been hurting him, as he has sub-26% CSW rates on the rest of his pitches. He is going to need to improve those marks to have success, but the good news is that he's showing signs of that lately as well. In that start against the Royals, he racked up a 35% CSW% on his 17 sliders. He also appears to be locating better lately, giving up zero barrels in three of his last four starts. There should be much smoother times ahead for Taillon, and he is widely available.
Jake Odorizzi, Houston Astros (26% Rostered)
It was tough to know what to expect from Odorizzi this year, especially after it took him so long to get a contract. For his career, he has been pretty pedestrian, but he flashed some really good signs in 2019 with the Twins.
He didn't start the year well, giving up nine earned runs in 7.2 innings in his first two starts. Since then, however, he has given up just seven earned runs in 18.2 innings with 21 strikeouts and six walks. He reached 86 pitches in his last outing, so he's a full-go at this point in the season.
Odorizzi has always boasted a very good fastball, and he's at it again this year with a strong 12% SwStr% and a 5.4% barrel rate on the four-seamer.
The main concern is how loaded the Astros pitching staff is. Right now, they are going with a six-man rotation, with all six guys pitching very well. At some point, it's likely that someone will have to leave the rotation. Given Odorizzi's age and one-year contract, he would be in consideration for that. That's not something to worry about right now, however, so if you are short a reliable SP arm and Odorizzi is available, he may be worth an add.
Other Names to Look For
Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs (28%) - he's been really tough to hit this year and walks almost nobody, just has struggled getting deep into games.
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox (57%) - strikeouts are there, just needs to limit walks.
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates (29%) - strong GB% and BB%, good enough strikeouts, just severely limited upside.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (28%) - strikeout upside, just struggling with command and efficiency.
Domingo German, New York Yankees (49%) - shown signs of being really good, but crippled by a couple really bad starts.
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