RADIO
We are well into the 2021 MLB season and it has been glorious. We have seen a ton of standout pitching early on, which is basically the opposite of what we expected going into the year. There have been no shortage of surprising starts and breakout performances, which in my view has made the fantasy game even more enjoyable.
In this post last week we pointed out some names that went ahead and strengthened their resume this week with a great start. You might just see some repeats here as the rostered rate on these guys has just not increased enough!
So here we go, a handful of waiver wire SPs for you to consider as we head into Week 8 of the fantasy season (May 17 - May 24). Happy hunting, RotoBaller readers!
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Pickups for Shallow Leagues
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates (43.3% Rostered)
The first guy I'm talking about is a repeat of last week. The three pillars for pitching success are strikeouts, walks, and ground-balls. These are the three categories I look at above everything else. So far in 2021, only seven qualified starting pitchers have posted strikeout rates above 25%, walk rates below 7%, and ground-ball rates above 45%. Brubaker is one of them. He has a 25.5% strikeout rate, a 5.6% walk rate, and a 53.8% ground-ball rate. I really don't need to see much else. Any starter posting that combination of numbers after seven starts should be rostered universally in fantasy.
It is even more encouraging when you look at the opponents he has faced. So far this year he has made four starts against offenses I would consider near the top of the league: Reds (2x), Padres, and Twins. He has faced two average offenses in the Cardinals and Cubs, and then had one easy matchup against the Brewers. Brubaker has earned a spot on fantasy rosters, and he should be given a somewhat long leash as well - I would not abandon him at the first sign of trouble.
Taijuan Walker, New York Mets (54.5% Rostered)
The rostered percentage has slowly been creeping up, but it's still not to the point where I believe it should be. I think this is the last time I write about Walker in this post, as I imagine he crosses the 60% threshold soon. He has gone seven strong innings in each of his last two outings, allowing just one earned run, striking out 12, and walking just three. The best part about Walker is his ability to keep the ball in the yard. He's given up just one home run all year. The only drawback with him so far has been the walks. He has given out 18 free passes in his 41 innings of work, but things have been much better in that regard over the last three starts.
If you watch Walker pitch, the stuff is convincing. He is throwing with good velocity and getting tons of movement while offering a good variety of pitch types. He seems healthy and he's flourishing in this Mets rotation. I expect him to stay fantasy-relevant as long as he is healthy.
Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners (29.8% Rostered)
This roster percentage for Kikuchi is criminal. Despite his discouraging 4.30 ERA, Kikuchi has been pitching really great overall this year. He's thrown three really encouraging starts in a row, notching quality starts against the Astros, Orioles, and Dodgers. In those three starts, he has struck out 25 hitters in 20.1 innings while walking just four. Check out his swinging-strike rate progression this year:
You can see the progress there. That has also coincided with added velocity. He has averaged more than 96 mph on his four-seamer the last two starts after being at or under 95 for the first four starts:
He also has a 53% ground-ball rate for the year, which really helps him get outs at a good rate even when he's not getting strikeouts. Kikuchi has fooled us before, but it's starting to look like he's the real deal, and the with the Mariners offense really coming together lately, it's time for him to be rostered in nearly all leagues.
Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Domingo German, New York Yankees (41.4% Rostered)
There's a good chance that German was rostered in your league and then dropped after the Yankees demoted him a couple of weeks back. Well, since he has been called back up things have taken a turn for the better. In his first three outings, he gave up nine runs in 13 innings. In his next three outings, he has fired off 18.1 innings, giving up just five earned runs while striking out 18 and walking just three. These last two starts have been very strong ones, and they have come against the brutal competition of the Nationals and Astros. It would have been wise to be a bit patient with German as it had been so long since he had taken a Major League mound, and he seems to have gotten his legs under him recently.
The negative side of this is that the recent improvement has not come with any changes under the hood. His CSW% and SwStr% numbers have actually been worse in the last two outings, while he has still given up at least a couple of barrels in each start. For this reason, I am less excited about German than Brubaker, Kikuchi, and Walker, but in a deep leagues, he should be rostered, and there's a good chance he's available.
Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers (21.7% Rostered)
Dunning had been good but not great this year until he was graced with the a super matchup against the Rangers. He struck out 10 in that spot while allowing two runs on six hits through five innings. He's been a successful run preventer over his short career with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his 67.1 innings. He wasn't super interesting for fantasy purposes because of the relative lack of strikeouts and uncertain workload, and those are still very real concerns. He has completed six innings just once this year, and it would make sense for the Rangers to limit him this year as he appears to be part of their long-term plans.
This is probably not someone that will help a fantasy team a ton, especially in quality start leagues, but the fact that Dunning flashed improved swing-and-miss ability recently is encouraging enough to give him a spot on a very deep roster.
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