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Rolling windows are one of the most effective ways to discern who the biggest risers and fallers are in a given area. Since power is at a premium this year, it seems only natural to examine expected slugging.
For reference, here's the official definition according to MLB.com: "Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed. In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an expected batting average, every batted ball is given a single, double, triple and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. For the majority of batted balls, this is achieved using only exit velocity and launch angle. As of 2019, "topped" or "weakly hit" balls also incorporate a batter's seasonal Sprint Speed."
Check out the rest of our Statcast analysis for fantasy leagues as well as Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds on RotoBaller each week.
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Rolling Window Risers - Expected Slugging (50 PA)
Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
+.395 xSLG last 50 PA
He had nowhere to go but up. Just before this current 50-PA window, Hernandez was down to a .149 batting average and .257 slugging percent with two home runs and two doubles on the season. Of course, he missed almost three weeks due to an oblique strain so the sample size is smaller and his recovery wasn't instantaneous. He seems to be doing much better these days.
Teoscar Hernandez homered today and has been heating up recently. I think the biggest key has been getting his chase rate (O-swing%) back in order
Maybe he was pressing in return from injury? Either way things are trending in the right direction pic.twitter.com/RwIWtwmFIR
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) June 2, 2022
He's back, he's still an elite slugger and can pitch in stolen bases as well. Get him back in your lineups or make a last-ditch effort to buy low from a disgruntled manager or Blue Jays fan. Remember, fielding doesn't count in fantasy leagues.
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
.394 xSLG last 50 PA
Another veteran slugger that never necessitated worry, Abreu is among the league leaders in xSLG and hard-hit rate. His plate discipline is the best it has ever been at a 5.7% K-BB%. The counting stats weren't quite there early in the season but he's picking it up lately. If there is one thing to worry slightly about with Mr. RBI is the fact that all his best lineup support keeps missing games due to various injuries. If Eloy Jimenez can get back soon, it will help make up for the loss of Tim Anderson.
Jesse Winker, Seattle Mariners
+.360 xSLG last 50 PA
In previous columns, we've covered how Winker is one of the biggest underachievers in expected slash line. He is posting a .304 SLG in spite of a .484 xSLG and a .211 AVG compared to a .290 xBA. He truly has had some bad luck, especially in the power department. He only has three homers as a Mariner but Statcast thinks he should have four more than that. Park factors can be a bigger factor than we realize sometimes.
Winker is bound to see his luck turn around soon. It could be happening soon, as he has doubled his xSLG in the current rolling window from the last one.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
+.286 xSLG last 50 PA
Maybe Votto just likes keeping us on our toes. Last year, it looked like he was done as an elite slugger midway through the year and then went on a career-best tear to end up as one of the best fantasy players at his position. Naturally, he started this year ice cold again and then went on the COVID IL.
Votto has maintained his aggressive pace from last year and then some. He is swinging more than ever with a career-high 72.6% Zone Swing% and 36.3% First Pitch Swing%. Is he taking it too far and losing his trademark patience at the plate? Nope, he still has one of the best walk rates in the bigs.
It might be as simple as Votto being a slow starter, which has traditionally been the case. That's been especially true as he's gotten older. We can't rightfully expect a torrid second-half like he posted last season but we never know what Votto has up his sleeves.
Five months to go. Enjoy the show. https://t.co/Qi2SRFUBga
— Joey Votto (@JoeyVotto) May 3, 2022
Eduardo Escobar, New York Mets
+.268 xSLG last 50 PA
From a subpar .331 xSLG to up .609, Escobar is finally making strides in New York. He's not exactly on fire, hitting .280 with five extra-base hits in the past 50 plate appearances. No walks either. Not a single one since May 21. Even though his 10.1% walk rate is a career-best, he's suddenly stopped accepting free passes. It's almost like there's a correlation between his suddenly less-passive approach and the jump in expected slugging...
Escobar might not get to his previous level of power production but he is worth monitoring for signs of progress now that he's swinging more freely.
Rolling Window Fallers - Expected Slugging (50 PA)
Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
-.467 xSLG last 50 PA
Story's power binge and long-awaited Boston breakout was met with great enthusiasm. Finally, the big-name free agent was paying off and resuscitating a struggling offense. But a funny thing happened after that 15-game stretch in which he hit nine HR and drove in 27 RBI. He went cold again.
In the past eight games, Story has not gone deep at all and has just three RBI. The bizarre part is that the schedule has become ridiculously easy as the Sox have faced three of the worst teams in the majors: Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Oakland. Story is an easy player to keep faith in based on his track record for fantasy teams but he was really the quintessential sell-high candidate as his hot streak came to an end. The season-long issues such as a 30% K% and .202 AVG versus fastballs haven't been resolved. He's still making his first tour through the American League and will have some inconsistency as a result. If what goes up must come down, then it's clear which direction he's headed.
Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins
-.325 xSLG last 50 PA
A cold April was followed by a hot May. You'd think the temperature would stay high in June but Soler is slowing down instead. He last homered on May 29, which was a two-dong game against his former team in Atlanta. It looks like a precipitous drop but that's just because he was on fire prior to this current window. On the year, he has an xSLG in the 86th percentile and a barrel rate in the 88th percentile. Nothing to worry about here.
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox
-.305 xSLG last 50 PA
Sometimes a drop in production doesn't mean a drop from good to bad. In cases like Moncada, it's gone from bad to worse. A look at his previous 50 PA xSLG of .540 seems pretty good but it's misleading because it extends back to 2021. Moncada ended 2021 on a strong note the final week of the season but has struggled throughout 2022. That included an IL stay that has limited him to 77 plate appearances. He is slugging an anemic .230 on the year with two homers and amazingly just one double. What is possibly worse than that is a 2.6% walk rate. All of this is quite shocking for a player who walked 13.6% last season and tallied 33 doubles with 14 HR.
Moncada must still be hurting from his oblique strain suffered just before Opening Day or is having trouble getting his swing back. For a player in his age-27 season with the ability to hit for average and above-average power, there is no other explanation. He should be benched until things change, especially as rookie Jake Burger looks far more impressive in his limited playing time and could push for more ABs.
Juan Yepez, St. Louis Cardinals
-.301 xSLG last 50 PA
The first of the Cardinals' impressive rookies to debut this season, Yepez now has 117 PA on his resume at the big-league level. He started out with a bang, putting together five multi-hit games in his first seven, including two home runs and three doubles. It has now been two weeks since his last long ball and his batting average has been steadily dropping down to its current .269 mark.
It's too soon to pass judgment on Yepez's fantasy prospects long-term because this is his first go-round in the majors. The reassuring thing is that pitchers aren't simply adjusting by throwing him more breaking balls. He is hitting breaking pitches better than fastballs, in fact. Yepez is settling into his role and seems set to be a consistent producer, even if that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be an elite slugger, which was never expected.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
-.195 xSLG last 50 PA
What are the odds on Buxton for AL MVP these days? Not to be condescending but it goes to show how quickly things can change and how much overreaction goes on at the beginning of the season.
Buxton still has elite Statcast numbers, including a 93rd percentile xSLG rate and 94th percentile Barrel%. Buxton slashed just .169/.250/.360 in the month of May and went through a 14-game homerless drought before going deep the other day against Toronto. It ultimately means nothing because he'll be in fantasy lineups all day every day no matter what. Just bear in mind that even the most talented players have cold spells just as they have hot streaks.
FWIW, Buxton is sixth in AL MVP odds right now at +2000 but he's got some serious work to do if he's catching up to Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani.
Oh, and Steven Kwan isn't winning Rookie of the Year either.
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