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It's fair to say we have enough Statcast data now to dig into the numbers and start identifying early risers and fallers. Many starting pitchers have only taken two turns in the rotation, so the safest place to start is with average exit velocity numbers. In future installments, we'll get to barrels, expected stats, and much more.
As always, one metric alone doesn't tell a full story. Some pitchers may be good at limiting exit velocity but carry no fantasy relevance, while you could find some excellent pitchers near the bottom of the leaderboard. It goes without saying that Alex Cobb and Ivan Nova don't belong on fantasy rosters, so there's no need to get into that.
My goal with this column each week is to identify pitchers whose progress, or lack thereof, in certain Statcast metrics can make for actionable advice in fantasy leagues. This isn't strictly-speaking an add/drop list, but an invitation to dig deeper into each player's profile to decide whether further consideration is warranted.
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Exit Velocity Studs
Statistics taken from baseballsavant.mlb.com current as of August 3, 2020.
Ryan Yarbrough, Tampa Bay Rays
In a year-end review of the exit velocity leaders at starting pitcher last year, Ryan Yarbrough was the first name mentioned by our Mike Schwarzenbach.
And I quote, "Yarbrough's 84.1 average exit velocity was a whopping 1.1 mile per hour better than the next closest pitcher, a big difference when you consider the range between the top and bottom pitcher is just 6.7 MPH."
Guess who's atop the leaderboard again in 2020?
Yarbrough makes a living out of limiting hard contact, so it would be a shock to the system at this point if he wasn't among the leaders. This hasn't translated to fantasy dominance, however, because of a strikeout rate barely above 20% each of the last two years. That area hasn't improved in his first two starts, it's actually gone down to 15% yet his strand rate has gone up.
Yarbrough will never overpower hitters with a cutter/sinker combo that averages 84 and 88 MPH respectively. He is a pitch-to-contact craftsman who is doing what he should - induce groundballs. He has increased his GB/FB rate from 1.04 in 2018 to 1.22 in 2019 to 2.43 this season. Yarbrough is a solid back-end rotation arm for ratio help as long as you can live with the low K totals.
Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' Opening Day starter (as we all expected) is quite the opposite of Yarbrough. Despite relying on the same sinker/cutter combo, he comes equipped with a fastball that can give hitters nightmares.
May is capable of blowing away opponents when his control is on. What's surprising is that in his first two starts, his whiff rate is down in the 18th percentile while his exit velocity is in the 91st percentile. Fantasy managers would probably like to see more Ks even at the expense of the occasional bomb. Still, it should be encouraging to see that a young pitching prospect known for a powerful arm is keeping things under control while not allowing a single barrel yet.
Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers
My WPC+ pod co-host Nick Gaut brought Turnbull to my attention this past weekend, so it's only right that he pops up on the leaderboard. Turnbull is allowing the 10th-lowest exit velocity to batters and his 86 MPH average FB/LD exit velocity is the lowest of any pitcher (with a minimum of 25 BBE to eliminate riff-raff and relievers).
It's a small sample size of two starts, but so far Turnbull has shown some interesting trends by increasing usage of his four-seamer and drastically increasing the vertical movement of his changeup, which has made him more effective against left-handed batters. Playing in a favorable pitcher's park and in a weaker, strikeout-prone division both work in his favor as well.
To hear Nick explain it much better, you should just watch our latest pod on Youtube or listen here for the last five minutes. You should really stay for the whole thing though.
Exit Velocity Duds
Statistics taken from baseballsavant.mlb.com current as of August 3, 2020.
Luke Weaver, Arizona Diamondbacks
With a threshold of 25 batted-ball events, Weaver is dead last in terms of exit velocity for pitchers. He has the worst Barrels/BBE rate among such pitchers at 20%. When one out of every five balls put in play are absolutely smoked, there's a problem.
Both his starts so far have been identically bad. He coughed up six runs on seven hits against the Padres and then repeated the feat against the Dodgers, mostly thanks to a pair of disastrous innings. Both times, Weaver gave up a run in the first, settled down, then fell apart three frames later.
Although Weaver is in his fifth Major League season and will turn 27 in a couple of weeks, it appears that a lack of focus is the culprit. Although manager Torey Lovullo would disagree. "I don’t think it’s a lack of focus, I don’t think it’s a lack of stuff. I just think it’s probably making some mistakes at the wrong time."
Whatever the reason, Weaver has torched some ratios in fantasy leagues and can't be trusted until he puts together a quality start or two.
Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks
Yeah, it hasn't been a good start to the season for the D-backs pitching staff. They have the fifth-highest ERA in the majors (5.44) and fifth-highest WHIP (1.44). Who would have thought Merrill Kelly would be the anchor of this group?
Bumgarner has allowed five barrels and 13 hard-hit balls (over 95 MPH) in two starts. While he improved in his second start compared to a terrible Opening Day performance, there is definitely reason to be concerned, as his fastball velocity is down in both starts of 2020.
Bumgarner finished his start today with an 87.9 mph average four-seamer velocity.
Tied for the lowest in a game of his career, with...his other start this season.
Again, that one dot off to the right -- soon to be joined by another. https://t.co/2CP4IsvqnK
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 29, 2020
When asked about the velo drop, MadBum had no good answer. The veteran could need more time to get his arm back into midseason form, so another couple of starts might show improvements. Of course, by that time we'll be midway through this season already with just a few weeks to go. He's a shaky hold right now, but keep a close eye on his velocity.
Hyun Jin-Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
There was a healthy amount of skepticism about Ryu repeating last year's Cy Young runner-up success after moving to Toronto. The Rogers Centre had the highest HR factor in the majors last year and was 12 spots higher than Dodger Stadium in run factor. Turns out that doesn't matter since the Jays aren't allowed to play in Canada, so they've yet to play a true home game. At some point, they'll supposedly play in Buffalo's minor-league venue, which doesn't promise to be pitcher-friendly. Derek Carty tweeted an incredibly insightful thread on this topic.
Sahlen Park fences are shallow and Buffalo elevation is above average. That's generally a recipe for a hitters' park.
Fence Distance: 4th shortest (est.)
Fence Height: 11th lowest (est.)
Altitude: 8th highest
Batter's Eye: More or less one solid color— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) July 20, 2020
That aside, Ryu hasn't looked very good on the road in his two starts so far. He failed to complete five innings in either start and currently sports an 8.00 ERA. His ground-ball rate has dropped and batters are making harder contact at an average clip of 90.2 MPH. Due to the recently postponed series with Philadelphia, Ryu should get his next turn at Truist Park against the Braves before traveling to Fenway to face the Red Sox and then conceivably facing the Rays twice more. This coming start could be a dangerous one, but Boston's offensive woes could make for a nice rebound. If he struggles in either or both of his coming starts, it's clearly panic time.
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