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ANALYSIS: Steven Matz put up a solid first start for Toronto on Monday, throwing 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball, allowing only one run on two hits and a walk to collect the win. He struck out nine batters, his most in a single game since June of 2019. Matz has always had tantalizing potential, dating back to his rookie season in 2014 when he started six games and produced an ERA of 2.27 with a 22.8 percent strikeout rate. That potential has frustratingly added up, over 112 appearances in six seasons with the New York Mets, to roughly a league-average pitcher.
It all seemed to fall apart in 2020, when Matz posted a 9.68 ERA in 30.2 innings with 4.11 home runs allowed per nine innings. If you look deeper, Matz got considerably unlucky in the shortened year, giving up a career-high .346 BABIP, a career-low 58.6 percent left-on-base rate, and an astronomical 37.8 percent home run to fly ball rate.
In this first outing for Toronto, Matz drew the Texas Rangers, which is quite a favorable matchup, but even so, he managed to induce a whiff rate of 32.6 percent and a chase rate of 34.7 percent. Each of these, while in a small sample, would represent clear career highs and could indicate that there are plenty more strikeouts coming. A change of scenery may have been just the thing to make Matz an excellent fantasy asset for 2021.
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