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Before you think it, I’m going to address the issue straight up. Is Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Jameis Winston really a sleeper at this point?
He has seemingly been hyped up by countless analysts as slated to improve his overall play and take the leap into the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks. Couple that with the increased hype generated by the Bucs being featured on HBO’s hit television series Hard Knocks and you have a recipe for Winston’s draft stock to rise astronomically, which it has. He has gone from a late ninth round draft price in 10-team, standard scoring leagues on fantasyfootballcalculator.com to a mid-eighth round over the course of the last month, now being ranked as the QB8.
However, that is not a good enough finish for Winston. I have seen and heard too many people talking him up as a potential top-5 prospect in fantasy football for the upcoming season. He may not be a sleeper in the conventional sense, but the upside he supposedly has puts him in the conversation. Now it’s time to cool their jets a bit and discuss why Winston is destined to break your heart in 2017.
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Weapons Mean Nothing Without Solid Quarterback Play
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a dangerous offense featuring a bolstered wide receiver corps with vertical threat DeSean Jackson and third-round pick Chris Godwin to work alongside a dominant number one in Mike Evans. As if that wasn’t scary enough, they landed the consensus top tight end prospect O.J. Howard in the 2017 NFL Draft, inspiring fear in defensive coordinators around the NFC South. There are no excuses for a lack of talent around Winston this season, but there does loom a much more troubling detail that will impact his fantasy production more than the supporting cast: his overall quarterback play.
Looking over his last two seasons, I was surprised to see how little Winston improved in many areas that you expect young quarterbacks to when they take the leap from their rookie season to their second year. While he saw an increase in attempts per game and number of completions in 2016, he also saw his interception percentage increase from 2.8% to 3.2%. Furthermore, his ranking of 23rd in the league in completion percentage last season shows how he was not a great decision maker nor does he have elite accuracy to compliment his strong arm.
But Winston has likely improved dramatically during the offseason right? Wrong. Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times has stated that Winston has thrown "plenty" of interceptions in practice this spring and, in preseason action, has shown similar flaws in his game that resulted in the second most interceptions in the NFL in 2016. It does seem as if many of the same issues still exist when fantasy football pundits were citing last season as a ‘breakout year’ for Jameis Winston. Looking ahead to 2017, Pro Football Focus ranks the Buccaneers’ offensive line 30th in the NFL, a sign that we could see a similar throwing volume complimented by several turnovers. Add to that the fact that his top two wide-outs in Evans and Jackson both had catch rates lower than 60% in 2016 and you have a recipe for frustration when putting him in your starting lineup.
The ‘Sleeper’ Appeal is Gone
I can remember back to when I was writing an article in July on boom or bust quarterbacks and saw that Winston was ranked as the QB-11 with a tenth round price on draft day, a stark contrast to his present appraisal. I wrote at the end of the article that I would consider him a candidate to boom ONLY because of his average draft position and positional rank, which was perhaps his most enticing feature as a fantasy quarterback.
To own Winston today, you will need to select him two rounds earlier than that and have the confidence in his top-10 upside. Just as a reminder, Winston finished as QB-16 in 2016, shaping out to be more of a plug-and-play starter against underwhelming pass defenses. He wasn’t on the cusp of a top-5 finish; rather he had quite a ways to go to even reach the top-10. I fear that many have fallen in love with Winston's upside and have neglected a more in-depth analysis of his strengths and weaknesses. Draft Winston with caution, ensuring that you have another solid quarterback to compliment him just in case the upside we all have hyped up isn't there.
