Targets and Air Yards Analysis - NextGen Stats

You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming: the fantasy football regular season is almost over (in most leagues and for our purposes at least; some of y'all will still keep on going, you sickos), and it's time to gear up for the last regular-season week of play before turning our attention to the playoffs. It's just four more weeks of fantasy contests for most GMs out there, so if you're still alive and trying to make a playoff run ending in a championship, you better not let any valuable bit of information slip through the cracks.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

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Week 13 - TE/WR Air Yards Breakdown - NextGenStats

If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know air yards tell us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed). I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of air yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total air yards.

With seven weeks in the books, we can say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean air yard values are already stabilized but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-7 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 33 targets for both WR and TE.

 

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-20% / negative-9%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open and only a few steps into their routes at a time defenders have not closed on them yet.
• Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.

• No tight ends in the group of players averaging 7+ yards of distance at the line of scrimmage 13 weeks into the season. In fact, Gerald Everett and Cameron Brate lead the way at the position but they're down at 6.7 yards.
• There are 20 wide receivers ranked above the first tight end in CUSH averages, all of them averaging 6.8+ yards, and 25 at least tied at 6.7 yards.
• Adam Humphries couldn't stay at the top of the leaderboard as the last time we checked, but Devin Duvernay retained that position with his league-leading 8.3 yards through this week.
• Three Ravens ranking inside the top-11 players in CUSH with all of Duvernay, Hollywood, and Bateman logging averages of 7+ yards this deep into the year.

• Fertile ground for tight ends on the other end of the CUSH leaderboard. As many as four rank in the bottom-10 with all of them at five yards or fewer. Of course, a tight end trails everybody with 4.6 CUSH yards (though David Njoku is tied with three wideouts at it, truth be told).
• Cole Kmet is the one tight end ranking the lowest while having seen a rather high number of targets (64) compared to the other tight ends topping at Gronk's 47.
• Diontae Johnson is the one doing it for the wide receiver group as he's got the lowest CUSH on a massive 120-target volume basis with Ja'Marr Chase the closest to his marks at 4.9 CUSH on 90 targets.

• As far as fantasy points go, the top-20 CUSH players are averaging 9.1 FPPG while the bottom-20 CUSH receivers are averaging a higher 12.4 FPPG on receiving stats.

• Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker (1.8) stayed on the last spot of the SEP leaderboard for the second column in a row, closely followed by A-Rob and Bryan Edwards both at just 1.9 yards of SEP...
• Kyle Pitts, one of the most unique tight ends in the league these days, is tied for the seventh-lowest SEP (2.2) among all qualified pass-catchers through 13 weeks of play. No other tight end is below 2.5 yards (Cameron Brate).

• Rondale Moore is still the King of the SEP with his 5.6-yard mark through Week 10, raising it by 0.1 yards since the last time we checked. Nobody is keeping up a SEP above 4.5 (Dawson Knox), so you get an idea of Moore's uniqueness at separating from defenders (whether that is because he's thrown the rock super early in his routes, or just burns secondary defenders in deep routes).
• All of Everett, Jonnu, and Knox are tied for the highest SEP mark among tight ends with 4.1 such yards through Week 13. Ryan Griffin is the only other player at the position at 4+ yards of separation on his average catch.

• On the manufactured CUSH+SEP leaderboard, nobody is touching Rondale Moore's 13.6 yards (up from 13.3 in Week 10).
• Allen Robinson has the biggest ratio between CUSH and SEP, with 6.9 yards on the former but only 1.9 on the latter. Nobody is even close, with Tee Higgins (6.1:2.1) and Sterling Shepard (7.7:2.7) ranking second and third.
• Kyle Pitts has the biggest ratio among TEs at 6.0 CUSH and 2.2 SEP.

• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 17+ FPPG: 5.9 CUSH, 3.3 SEP.
• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <8 FPPG: 6.1 CUSH, 3.2 SEP.

• In a few words: don't rely on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.

 

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 0% / 61%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy points he scores.
• This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Every player among the top-25 in TAY% is averaging double-digit FPPG.
• In fact, among the top-35 TAY% players, only three (Jakobi Meyers,  Nelson Agholor, and A.J. Green) are below 10 FPPG 13 weeks into the season.

• Brandin Cooks is no longer leading the way in TAY% as he's dropped from his Week 10 45% mark. It's now Terry McLaurin leading the league at 44.1% with no other player topping 43% and only five players at 40%+ to date.
• That compares to six players in the 40%+ clip three weeks ago. Of course, all of them are wide receivers.
• Kyle Pitts, a wideout masquerading as a tight end by the look of his numbers, has the largest air-yard share among teammates while manning the TE slot but his share is already down at 29.5% compared to the leading 44%+ mark of McLaurin.
• Diontae Johnson is the only WR with a TAY (aka aDOT) in the single-digit realm (9.1) while having gathered at least 31%+ of his team's air yards (34.6%).

• As many as 26 pass-catchers have at least 90 targets. Hunter Renfrow trails all of them with a TAY% of just 16%, followed by Chris Godwin (19.1%) as the only two players in the group below 20%.
• Three tight ends are above them in Kelce, Gesicki, and Andrews; all of them with marks above 22.4% topping at 27.9%.

• Ridiculous aDOT that of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who leads the league at an unreasonable 18.3 TAY. Now, that said, it's also true that he's gotten only 39 targets compared to second-highest aDOT holder Courtland Sutton and his 15.8 mark.
• Only five players keeping up 15+ yards of aDOT through Week 13, though only Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders have at least 45 targets (76 and 67 respectively) among them.
• Kudos to Rondale Moore for somehow having a stupid 1.1 aDOT on 57 targets. Reasonable, though, considering his eight-yard cushion on average and 5.6 SEP at the point of the catch.

• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 17+ FPPG: 9.5 aDOT, 28.4% TAY%.
• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <10 FPPG: 9.0 aDOT, 13.9% TAY%.

 

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 83% / 79% / 33% / 70%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because, well, they hand out actual fantasy points. That's why 29 of 32 pass-catchers putting up 14+ FPPG so far have caught 30+ passes--the only one doing so on fewer receptions is Antonio Brown (29).
• Of the 26 pass-catchers with 90+ targets, only Mooney has yet to catch 55 passes, and only three (Mooney, Mike Williams, and Chase) have yet to break the 55-reception barrier.
• Shout out to Cooper Kupp for becoming the first 100-reception receiver of the 2021 season. He just needed 136 targets to reach the mark thanks to a phenomenal 73.5% catch rate.
• That rate is no joke, folks. While 15 qualifiers are above Kupp (Moore leads everybody at 84.2%), the truth is that only Godwin (78.1%) and Waddle (75.4%) are doing it while having at least 100 targets on the season through Week 13.

• Poor Jakobi Meyers is the only player with 90+ targets to have scored only one touchdown this season--and in Meyers' case, his full career. Mike Gesicki has two of them, and no other player in the group (26 pass-catchers) has less than three.
• As many as 12 qualified players (33+ targets) have yet to score a touchdown on the year. Laviska Shenault Jr. leads all of them with 76 targets, followed by Cole Kmet (64) and Dan Arnold/Jarvis Landry (both 52).

• Cooper Kupp is finally leading every receiving category. Receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns go by his name... and it's not even close more often than not with the exception of the touchdowns (Kupp's got 11 to Mike Evans' and Adam Thielen's 10).
• DeAndre Hopkins is the most efficient scorer of the NFL, though, as he's hitting paydirt every 4.6 receptions with 37 passes hauled in for eight scores already.
• Cole Beasley has needed all of his 63 receptions to score a single touchdown on the year, the most inefficient player out there to date.

 

"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 88% / 79% / negative-3%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.

• It's now four players into the 1,000+ yards realm. The third column in a row we have to talk about Kupp as the league leader in the category thanks to his 1,366 mark and 157-yard distance to no. 2 Justin Jefferson.
• Only two qualifiers have missed on reaching 200 yards through Week 13 and 33+ targets: Cameron Brate and Ryan Griffin, both of them tight ends. Albert Wilson trails all WRs with a low 204-yard mark on his 37 targets and 24 receptions.
• All of 40 receivers have topped 600 yards already and 39 of them are averaging double-digit FPPG through Week 13. The exception, you guessed right: Jakobi Meyers because of his putrid scoring outcome of just one touchdown through 13 games on 90 targets.

• Last week made the cut for WR Henry Ruggs III and his 36 targets this year--the last of his pro career in the NFL. He's still leading the YPT leaderboard at 13.0 with no other player above 12 and Kendrick Bourne clocking in second at 11.8 yards per target.
• Six other players with 10.0+ yards per target but none other than Bourne above 11 such yards. No player with at least 60 yards is averaging those 10 YPT, though.
• Among heavily targeted receivers, though, it'd be down to Chase Claypool leading the way with 9.2 YPT on a healthy 72-target dose.

• Deebo edged Kupp in YAC by three through Week 10 but is now down 92 to Kupp three weeks later. Even then, Kupp leads the YAC leaderboard while having more yards before than after the catch, mind you, with a 54/46 split.
• Chris Godwin is the only other pass-catcher into the 500+ YAC realm. In fact, no other player (TE Travis Kelce ranks fourth) has topped 441 YAC through Week 13.
• Rondale Moore is an absolute outlier when it comes to YAC% as he's gotten 98.1% of his total yards after his catches. That means he has 413 YAC and just a measly eight aYDS to date. Of course, no other player has caught passes for fewer than 52 air yards.
• On the other hand, Keelan Cole has the fewest yards after the catch (35) while boasting a solid 264 air yards. Only Marquez Callaway has a larger split 11/89 YAC/aYDS while sitting at a total of 45 yards after the catch and 364 air yards through Week 13.

 

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6% / 0% / 11%

Leaders and Trailers: 

Leaderboard Notes:

• Deebo Samuel is definitely a very unique player who can seemingly play either the WR and RB positions without much trouble. Perhaps Samuel's ridiculous 4.4 YACOE is what is giving him the edge at the tailback position, as this man thrives once he has possession of the rock.
• Nobody is close to Samuel, with Chase ranking second, almost one full YACOE point below Samuel's league-leading mark. Kudos to the rook and Bryan Edwards for keeping up YACOE marks above 3.0, the only two other guys doing it along with Deebo.

• As an outlier as Rondale Moore is himself, his YAC/R mark of 8.6 yards pales against Samuel's 9.6 YAC/R, a full yard above the former.
• The most incredible thing, though, is that of the five players with a YAC/R mark of 8.0+ yards, only Deebo is boasting an xYAC/R mark below 6.0 yards. Thus, the staggering 4.4 YACOE he's putting up through the year.

• Even split between tight ends and wide receivers at the top of the YAC/R leaderboard, with four TEs and four WRs in the top-eight, all of them above 7.4 YAC/R through 13 weeks of play.
• The tight-end cohort should be averaging 4.8 YAC given the expectations, and the wide-receiver group should be at 4.1. That compares to tight ends actually averaging +0.5 YACOE as a group while receivers are at a slightly higher +0.6 YACOE mark.

• Only three receivers are averaging fewer than 2.0 YAC/R: Marquez Callaway, Marvin Jones Jr., and Keelan Cole. None of them, kind of expectedly, is overperforming their xYAC/R marks with the closest to it being Cole at a -0.2 YACOE.
• The player with the lowest YAC/R overperforming the expectations is Allen Robinson (2.8 YAC/R to 2.7 xYAC/R).
• On the other hand, Albert Wilson is the only player with an actual YAC/R average at 6.0+ yards that is underperforming the expectations, and he's doing it at -0.5 YACOE (6.0 YAC/R to 6.5 xYAC/R).

• Receivers averaging 17+ FPPG through Week 13: 1.3 YACOE.
• Receivers averaging <10 FPPG through Week 13: 0.4 YACOE.

• Receivers averaging 1.4+ YACOE through Week 13: 10.7 FPPG.
• Receivers averaging <0.5 YACOE through Week 13: 10.1 FPPG.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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