Targets and Air Yards Analysis - NextGen Stats

Okay, folks, I'm about to bring you bad news. If you're reading this it is because you're trying to get an edge over your league mates to beat them this weekend. That means you're here to get informed on what to do and how to tackle your week's most pressing decisions. The bad news: these will be your final guesses of the first half of the season. It's time to panic because in just mere days we'll be counting down the days to the season's end instead of looking forward to another week of football. But hey, today is not the time to get depressed. Why? Because in this article we have new insights from everyone's favorite source, NFL NextGen Stats!

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

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Week 7 - TE/WR Air Yards Breakdown - NextGenStats

If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know air yards tells us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed). I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of air yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total air yards.

With seven weeks in the books, we can say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean air yard values are already stabilized but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-7 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 18 targets for both WR and TE.

 

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-20% / negative-9%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
• Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.

• One fewer player with a CUSH above 8.0+ yards, and it's now down to a couple, a tight end and a wideout. As was the case the last time we checked, not only are those two values outliers, but they're actually coming from players with only 19 and 26 targets (cutoff at 18)
• Marquise Brown is known for his downfield threats, and that shows in his high 7.5 CUSH. Why highlight Brown? Because he's also in possession of one of the highest TAY marks (16.0) through seven weeks of play. Bulky, deep targets and an 18.5 FPPG? Gotta love it.
• Three more players (Lockett, Mooney, and Duvernay) are posting TAYs above 10 while getting CUSH yardage above 7.5 yards. Only Lockett (13.0) is averaging more than 10 FPPG.

• David Njoku is given no room at all to kick his routes off and his super-low 3.8 CUSH is leading the league by a mile. Makes sense, though, considering he's getting targeted just 7.9 yards (TAY) downfield, so defenders have to cover him tightly anticipating short-route passes.
• Both Gronkowski and Njoku have CUSH marks at or below 4.5 yards, yet the fantasy outcomes from those two are truly opposite: Njoku is posting a low 7.3 FPPG compared to Gronk's massive 19.5 FPPG tally in the same amount of targets (21).

• Six tight ends inside the bottom-20 CUSH players... and six more inside the top-20 CUSH pass-catchers. That's all you need to know.
• As far as fantasy points go, the top-20 CUSH players are averaging 10.2 FPPG while the bottom-20 CUSH receivers are averaging a higher 12.8 FPPG on receiving stats.

• Talk about a stinker of a season from Allen Robinson II... A-Rob is separating the fewest amount of yards from defenders (1.7 SEP) and posting a putrid 7.7 FPPG. Even DeVante Parker and Bryan Edwards, with similar 1.8 SEP marks, are putting more fantasy points per game with 11.8 and 8.4 tallies.
• The two only non-separating receivers putting up numbers are rookie Ja'Marr Chase and Terry McLaurin. Both are receiving passes at 2.2 or fewer yards of separation within their nearest defender, yet both are averaging 17+ FPPG while being relied on massively (51 and 69 targets respectively).

• At the other end, Rondale Moore has been able to qualify while keeping up his ridiculous league-leading SEP mark of 5.9 yards. Not only is he getting separated, but he's also thriving after the catch with 10.2 YAC/R, a mark good for the second-largest league-wide.
• Nobody is caring about Atlanta Falcons' no. 2 TE Hayden Hurst: he has the second-highest SEP and the highest CUSH among all qualifiers, and his combined SEP+CUSH sits at 13.1 only behind Moore's 13.3 yards.
• Among heavily-targeted pass-catchers (40+ targets through W7), Cole Beasley is the only one with a combined CUSH+SEP yardage above 11 yards.
• The lowest CUSH+SEP averagers group includes the likes of DeVante Parker, Julio Jones, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, and Nelson Agholor, all of them seriously underperforming this season.

• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 18+ FPPG: 5.7 CUSH, 3.1 SEP
• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <8 FPPG: 6.1 CUSH, 3.2 SEP

• In a few words: don't rely on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.

 

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 0% / 61%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy points he scores.
• This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Every player among the top-15 in TAY% is averaging double-digit FPPG with one exception: Allen Robinson. LOL.
• Even more, among the top-28 only two (Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney; can you spot the one other thing they have in common?) are below 10 FPPG seven weeks into the season.

• Tyrod Taylor or not, Brandin Cooks is still leading the way as the go-to player in Houston and the whole NFL with a 48.4% team air yards share. Terry McLaurin, also playing under a backup QB, is the only other player with a share of 44+ percent.
• Tyler Lockett, A-Rob, and Mooney are the only three players getting a share of team AYD at 34%+ while having 45 or fewer targets on the season.
• On the other end, Cole Beasley is the highest-targeted player (43) with the smallest share at only 10.9% through seven weeks and six games played (Buffalo had its bye already).

• A good bunch of qualifiers this week with TAY% below 10%. As many as 25 players made the cut with those share marks but only four players at 30+ targets right now (Rondale, Higbee, Jonnu, and Conklin).
• Gronk is obviously the leading man on a low TAY% share: Gronkowski has a silly 7.4 TAY% (he's missed some games and has been targeted only 21 times so far) but he's putting up 19.5 FPPG. No other WR/TE qualified for this week's leaderboard is at 14+ FPPG while having a TAY% share below 12.8 percent (Dalton Schultz at 14.2 FPPG).

• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 18+ FPPG: 11.6 aDOT, 33.4% TAY%
• Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <10 FPPG: 8.7 aDOT, 12.3% TAY%

 

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 83% / 79% / 33% / 70%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because well, they hand out actual fantasy points. That's why 21 of 24 pass-catchers putting up 15+ FPPG so far have caught 30+ passes--the only ones doing so on fewer receptions are Antonio Brown, Sterling Shepard, and Rob Gronkowski.

• The bye weeks are already here and they are interfering with some counting stats. That being said, Cooper Kupp is clearly the leader in targets with a good 8-target padding above Davante Adams--who might miss Week 8 due to COVID protocols.
• Brandin Cooks is the only 60+ target player that is averaging fewer than 15 FPPG. All other receivers with that volume (six of them including TE Travis Kelce) are posting 17+ FPPG marks.
• The near-20 target distance between Kupp's 81 and no. 8 Deebo Samuel's 63 is quite large. Only four players have broken the 70-target mark 7 weeks into this season and are averaging more than 10 looks per week.

• Sorting the qualifiers by Catch Rate, rookie Jaylen Waddle (57) has been the only one able to grab more than 75% of his targets while having more than 43 targets to his name. Hunter Renfrow, Adam Thielen, and Chris Godwin have seen 50+ targets each and are close to Waddle with catch rates above 73%.
• Tons of tight ends among those with the highest CTCH%. Of the top-35 players in that leaderboard, 16 (almost half of them) play the TE position. That is in clear contrast with the bottom-35 cohort, in which there are only six tight ends.

• Will Kupp's touchdowns ever regress? There is not a two-TD gap between any other group of players as there is one between Kupp (9) and the next highest-scoring pass-catchers (7).
• C.J. Uzomah, with five TDs, is the shakiest of pass-catchers and the biggest candidate for regression among qualifiers as he's scoring a TD every 3.8 targets. Mo Alie-Cox and Gronk (5.3), while outliers, are tied for second already 1.5 targets above Uzomah.
• Brandin Cooks sits at the complete opposite end: 64 targets and 45 receptions that have turned in a good 502 yards... but just one touchdown. Ugh. The positive regression should pop at some point, but with the middling quarterbacking, it might actually never arrive.
• Jakobi Meyers is never going to score a touchdown, right? 59 targets already and counting, and no scores to this poor man's name so far. He's still keeping his head above water with a nice 11.4 FPPG on receiving stats, but some scores here and there wouldn't hurt the WR.

 

"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 88% / 79% / negative-3%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
• Bye-bye Deebo at the top of the yardage leaderboard three weeks after checking things for the last time. Samuel is now fourth with 648 total receiving yards, way below the three men above 650 on the year: Adams (744), Chase (754), and no. 1 Kupp (809).
• Only two qualified players have racked up fewer than 100 yards so far: Elija Moore and Dyami Brown, both rookies from the Jets and Footies, on 26 and 20 targets respectively. They haven't caught even 10 passes yet, neither.

• Not a coincidence that all receivers with 500+ receiving yards are averaging 18.3+ PPR points through Week 7 as a group.
• The only players averaging that 18.3 FPPG mark (min. 50 targets) while having fewer than 500 yards are Mike Williams at 498 and Mike Evans at 496 yards. Diontae Johnson falls a little bit short (17.9 FPPG) but has way fewer yards on the season: 376).

• Rookie Ja'Marr Chase, even with 51 targets to his name, is averaging 14.8 Y/T and leads the league at that. No other player with more than 50 targets is posting a Y/T mark above 10.3.
• On the other hand, Robby Anderson and Calvin Ridley have 49 and 52 targets respectively yet their Y/T averages are at the bottom of the pack with marks of 4.2 and 5.4 through week 7.

• While Kupp and Deebo lead the league in YAC, the truth is that they have been quite balanced in terms of the air/after yardage split. Only 43% of Kupp's total yards came after the catch, and Deebo is even better with a 49/51 split between air/after yardage.
• Rondale Moore is white to the other two's black: seventh-highest YAC mark (266 extra yards) with them accounting for a massive 87.8% of all of his total 303 yards on the year.
• Only TE Jonnu Smith and TE George Kittle are posting YAC% above 66.5 percent at this point, trailing only Rondale's 87.8% mark.
• Emmanuel Sanders has been the most air-reliable pass-catcher given his low 14.5 YAC% on 39 targets and 413 total receiving yards with Buffalo. He's the only WR with a YAC% below 15% averaging double-digit FPPG at 14.9.

 

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6% / 0% / 11%

Leaders and Trailers: 

Leaderboard Notes:

• All hail Joe Burrow as he's been good enough to sustain two pass-catchers at the top of the YACOE leaderboard. Only, you know, we're talking about after the catch yards, so it's not that he has been that decisive in what Ja'Marr Chase and C.J. Uzomah have done this season on this overperforming-front (just peep at Uzomah's W7 game for proof).
• Anyway, kudos to the Bengals offense because they have those two leading the way and Tee Higgins as the 21st-ranked player at 1.4. That's some neat YAC group of guys right there if you ask me.
• Should the Raiders toss the ball way more toward Bryan Edwards? Absolutely. He's third on a YACOE basis (3.7) and he should be seeing more than the 31 total targets he's gotten as the season advances. Here's hoping that happens now that HC Jon Gruden is out of Las Vegas.

• I want to believe in Jalen Reagor, but he's been atrocious on an over/under-performing basis so far this year. He ranks second-worst on YACOE and is sandwiched between the only other two players underperforming to marks at or below -1.0YAC (Demarcus Robinson and Durham Smythe).
• More concerning, though, are the cases of Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, and A.J. Brown. All of these three would pass the eye-test for the stud-receiver label, but they've widely underperformed the expectations after their catches. Fantasy GMs can rest easy, though, as all three are currently averaging 12+ FPPG with Evans even at 18.4 through seven weeks of play.

• Rondale Moore's xYAC mark (7.7) has gone down 1.1 yards since the last time we checked, but he's still second on that front only behind David Njoku's 8.5 yards. Jonnu Smith ranks third at 6.8 xYAC.
• Now, for the actual YAC leaderboard, things have looked pretty much the same: Njoku (11.1), Moore (10.2), and then a group of five players between 8.8 and 8.3 YAC is the only thing separating Jonnu (8.1) for the top-3.

• As great as Brandin Cooks and Marvin Jones Jr. have been so far this season (14.5 and 13.4 FPPG, both of them are posting YAC/R marks at 2.1 and 2.0 respectively. They are, as expected, underperforming the expectations by more than half a yard.
• Tee Higgins (1.9) is the only pass-catcher with an xYAC mark below 2.0 yards, speaking of thought situations for the receiver to beat his cover-men once he catches the ball. Even then, he's posted a 1.4 YACOE on 25 receptions this season.
• Mike Gesicki, one of the most coveted and hyped tight ends through the last fantasy-draft season, is underperforming expectations wildly with a -0.8 YACOE mark. That's the worst average among tight ends with at least 50 targets, and it's not even close: Waller is second on that volume already at a neutral 0.0 YACOE through Week 7.

• Half of the 39 players (20) currently underperforming their xYAC expectations are averaging 10+ FPPG through Week 7.
• More than half (44) of the 77 players overperforming their xYAC marks are averaging 10+ FPPG (57%).

 

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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