RADIO
Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to my Thanksgiving Thursday start em, sit em article for Week 12! I hope you all have a wonderful week and are able to spend time with your loved ones. Although the world seems to be coming back to normal, the NFL race is still up in the air. With 21 teams entering this week with five wins or more, the rest of the season will likely be as wild as the first 11 weeks have been.
Thanksgiving Thursday will bring us three games, so there will be lots of fantasy football start/sit and lineup decisions to be made. Bright and early on Thursday, the Bears are traveling to Motor City to take on Dan Campbell and the Lions. Following this, we have the Raiders going south to take on the disjointed Cowboys. And to end the day, we have Buffalo going to New Orleans to take on the Saints.
Thank you all for starting your Thanksgiving weekend with my fantasy football matchups analysis article, and I hope you're ready to break down these three games. My name is Ellis Johnson, and welcome to your RotoBaller Thanksgiving Thursday preview.
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Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions - 12:30 pm ET
Notable Injuries
- Justin Fields (QB, CHI) - Ribs - Doubtful
- Allen Robinson (WR, CHI) - Hamstring - Doubtful
- Jared Goff (QB, DET) - Oblique - Questionable
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
David Montgomery (RB, CHI): Finally back from injury, Montgomery is in the must-start section. Over his last two games, he has not been amazing, however, he has played 85% and 95% of snaps respectively. Montgomery is clearly leading the backfield and will go up against the second-worst rushing defense in the league. The Lions are allowing 140 rushing yards to their opponents each week and we know Montgomery is a lock for 15 + touches. with this opportunity and the matchup, Montgomery could easily be a low-end RB-one for the week.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI): It's time we're honest – Darnell Mooney has been the WR1 for this team all season. Last week with Allen Robinson out, we saw him rack up 16 targets and 20 fantasy points. With Robinson likely missing again, Thursday morning should be another big workload regardless of which quarterback is under center. With Mooney’s big-play ability and Detroit's lack of competent corners, Mooney should be started as a high-upside WR2 this week.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET): Swift has been amazing this year. He is currently sitting as the RB5 on the season, mostly because he has managed to get it done both on the ground and in the air. During the first nine weeks, we saw his ability as a receiver while in the last two we saw him for go for 47 for 266 yards on the ground. What does that mean? It means he is a matchup-proof, locked and loaded RB1 the rest of the season. Chicago is middle of the pack when it comes to run defense, and Swift is guaranteed the work needed to continue to be a RB1 this week with top-three upside.
Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET): Although Hockenson has been underwhelming the last few weeks, he is still a must-start tight end. It's rare to find a tight end that will get eight targets consistently and play 90% of snaps. Chicago has been very solid against the tight end position allowing an average of 4.6 fantasy points a game. This is a little scary for Hockenson, but in the TE landscape, you're probably stuck playing him. With his usage, you could be in for a good week, however we have also seen him put up a zero recently. I would play him with caution this week.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Andy Dalton (QB, CHI): With Fields likely out with an injury we will most likely see Andy Dalton under center on Thursday. Last week we saw Dalton have under 50% completion percentage with only 11 completions. He did manage to pass for two touchdowns and zero interceptions, however, I'm still concerned about his fantasy production this week. If you are stuck you could potentially be a streaming player, however, I would like to avoid him as you never know which Dalton we're going to get.
Jared Goff and Tim Boyle (QB, DET): Regardless of Goff being back this week, it's hard to trust either of these quarterbacks. Last week we saw Boyle convert his collegiate statistics of one touchdown and 14 interceptions into his first NFL start which was mediocre at best. Goff has not necessarily been amazing either and both these quarterbacks against a steady Chicago defense are not worth looking at for fantasy this week.
It’s definitely one of the grosser Thursday matchups of the season, however, it’s football in the morning so you can’t complain. Last week also saw a relatively mediocre game and managed to pull off two correct picks. This opening matchup features two teams that are more evenly matched than expected. As a result, I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring affair.
Ellis’ Picks: Lions +3.5 (7-4), Under 41.5 (9-2)
Career record: Spread (16-13), Over/Under (18-11)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys - 4:30 pm ET
Notable Injuries
- Amari Cooper (WR, DAL) - COVID - Out
- CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) - Brain Injury - Questionable
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL): In what was a lackluster game for the entire Cowboys offense, Zeke managed to grind out a solid fantasy day. Although his nine carries only led to 32 yards, he caught all of his six targets for another 36 yards. Elliott is still the RB8 on the season and remains a must-start. He has been very consistent over the last few weeks, but it’s about time we saw an explosive game from the lead back. That game could come this week as Joe Mixon just torched the Vegas defense with 30 carries for over 120 yards and two scores. There is a chance we see Zeke have a monster day and finish as a top-five option this week.
CeeDee Lamb & Michael Gallup (WR, DAL): If CeeDee Lamb plays, you're playing him as a top 12 option this week. However, from the news I am expecting him to likely miss, which leads me to Michael Gallup. His is a name that might surprise a lot of you in the “must-start” section, but Gallup is a great option this week. After missing the majority of his season to injury, he returned with two solid performances. If there is no CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper, Gallup could thrive. Gallup is a very talented player who has the talent to thrive with increased opportunity. The young WR is also a free agent this offseason and this might be a perfect dress rehearsal against a shaky Raiders defense. Gallup should be started as a flex option in all leagues, and could easily find his way into the WR2 discussion. Plus, to add some confidence, I’m calling for the Pie Shop* to be open this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Darren Waller (TE, LVR): Finally we saw a resurgence game from Darren Waller. After exploding in the first week, Waller had become a big name with average tight end production at best. It has now been two of the last three weeks where the team finally got him back involved with double-digit targets in Weeks nine and 11. He also managed to crack the century mark in yards last week. What has been weighing the veteran TE down is his inability to find the pay-dirt. Without scoring a TD since Week Four, Waller managers find themselves sitting on a time-bomb of a huge performance. I think this bomb might go off sooner than people expect as I’m calling for the TD drought to bring showers this Thursday and open up the dusty Pie Shop*.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL): This is not a mistake. It also isn’t an article that is going to tell you to bench one of the best fantasy QBs in the league. Coming off his worst performance of the year, it is easy to overreact. However, I think we can overlook last week and focus on his weapons. Without CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, Dak will need to look elsewhere for fantasy production. Although the team still has a plethora of talented individuals, I think this does take away from his ceiling this week. The Raiders have been a tougher matchup this year, but I think Prescott will finish as a QB1. However, you might be dreaming if you’re looking for a week-winning performance from the veteran QB this Thursday.
Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson (TE & WR, DAL): Feeding on my Prescott discussion, I think both Schultz and Wilson are fantasy options this week. Without their two target leaders, Schultz and Wilson have managed to pick up the fantasy slack in the past. For Schultz, this landed him as a top-five TE for a few weeks without Michael Gallup. Meanwhile, Wilson has consistently seen an increase in targets when injuries have hit his teammates. I would start Wilson as a potential WR3/flex play, and Schultz should be started in all leagues at the TE position.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL): Pollard has quietly had himself a very nice season. In seven of his ten games, he has over 40 rushing yards and has 20 or more receiving yards in all but one game. No matter the game script, Pollard is involved enough to be a flex option each week. This week, against a porous Raiders rushing defense, he could easily feast alongside Zeke. I would play him as a solid RB3 on Thanksgiving.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LVR): Don’t look now, but Renfrow has been the WR26 over the last four weeks. That’s right, Hunter “The Answer'' Renfrow has found his way once again into fantasy relevance. With the absence of Henry Ruggs III, surprisingly, Renfrow has seen an uptick in targets from Dereck Carr. Although he does not have a huge upside on any given week, he has managed to score in two of his last three weeks. Renfrow should be played as a solid WR3 this week against a Dallas team that is allowing the 12th most passing yards a game.
Derek Carr (QB, LVR): The often hated, never-overrated Carr is back in play this week in fantasy. Through eleven weeks he is right where most people expected, as the QB16 on the season. Carr has been steady for his whole career. He has built himself a very nice house to live in the “flex option” portion of my articles. You can always start Carr in a Superflex lineup, and this week, with the potential of a shoot-out, he may carry more upside than usual.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR): Don’t worry, I didn't forget about Jacobs. I also didn't forget that he has yet to crack double-digit fantasy points in either of his last two games. With Jacobs, the math is easy: If the Raiders project to win the game or he finds the end zone, he’ll be a solid RB2 on the week. If neither happens, you’re looking at a RB3 who will keep you afloat based on usage. In this matchup, I think his best bet will be to find the end zone. He gets enough work that he should be in all your lineups. I wanted to call him a “flex option” as I think another single-digit fantasy performance is in the cards against a Dallas team that is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the running back position.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Bryan Edwards (WR, LVR): Ironically, we have a completely opposite situation from Derek Carr. The never-hated, always overrated Bryan Edwards can’t be started in fantasy. Don’t get caught up in his flashy highlights during the 2020 training camp, because we have seen three plays where he has converted to the NFL field. Despite playing 80% or more of snaps in each of the last three weeks, he has failed to acquire a target in two of those games. It’s not worth it.
This game is very interesting. On one side, we have a Cowboys team that has not reached its final form from a fantasy production standpoint. On the other side, we have a Raiders team that started red hot but got hit hard by the unfortunate bug that has led to the release of two first-round picks and a new head coach. Since the off-field drama has occurred, this team has not looked the same. I think this will be a lower-scoring game than anticipated, and an eight-point spread is pretty large. Here are my picks:
Ellis’ Picks: Raiders +8.0 (7-4), Under 50.5 (9-2)
Career record: Spread (16-13), Over/Under (18-11)
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints - 6:20 pm ET
Notable Injuries
- Alvin Kamara (RB, NOS) - Knee - Out
- Mark Ingram II (RB, NOS) - Knee - Questionable
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Josh Allen (QB, BUF): I know this has nothing to do with Allen, but my god did Jonathan Taylor destroy this team last week. After being a top-run defense in the league, Buffalo did not show up last week. Thankfully we have the QB3 trying to right the ship on Thanksgiving. Although the team did not play great last week, Allen was still functional for fantasy primarily thanks to his rushing. This is what you get with Allen, regardless of the game script or that he is going up against the Saints’ solid defense against QB’s, he’ll be a QB1 this week. I would start Allen with confidence as he is matchup proof.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF): Diggs has been on fire lately. After starting the season relatively slowly, he has averaged 8.5 targets and a TD in each of his last four games. As Allen’s top weapon, you can always count on Diggs receiving high-value targets throughout the game. This week he will be matched up against Marshawn Lattimore, who has had success slowing down Mike Evans and A.J. Brown in the recent past. This may take away some of his ceiling, but he’s a WR1 this week.
Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, & Tony Jones Jr. (RB, NOS): This will likely come down to a game-time decision. So far, neither Mark Ingram or Kamara have practiced this week making their availability doubtful. If that is the case, Tony Jones Jr. becomes a must-start. As the last man active, Jones Jr. could see a lot of work against the Buffalo team that failed to stop Jonathan Taylor last week. Jones Jr. also showed well during the preseason and training camp, so it will be interesting to see what he can do with an increased role. If either Ingram or Kamara plays, they will be startable for similar reasons. Keep an eye on the news throughout Thursday.
UPDATE: Alvin Kamara has officially been ruled out.
Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF): In his second week back from injury, Knox saw ten targets. With this, he managed 80 yards on eight receptions. There aren’t many TE’s that can see this volume on any given week, plus there aren’t many offenses more powerful than Buffalo. Unfortunately, the Saints are a bottom-five matchup for fantasy tight ends, but I have a feeling the Pie Shop* is open for the breakout TE. I would start him as a low-end TE-one this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
Trevor Siemian (QB, NOS): Well this is a surprise. Over the last three weeks, Siemian has been solid for fantasy. Through this span, he hasn't had fewer than 15 fantasy points, with 19 and 24 points over his last two matches respectively. Buffalo’s defense can be scary, however in a matchup where the Saints will most likely be trailing, Siemian might have to throw to stay in the game. As a result, he is risky, but flex playable start in Week 12.
Buffalo Receivers: Let’s start with Buffalo. Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders have each cannibalized each other for fantasy this season. It is almost impossible to predict whose day it will be this Thanksgiving, but Lattimore most likely shadowing Diggs could open up the field. As a result, I would play Sanders, Beasley, and Davis in that order.
New Orleans Receivers: The Saints find themselves in a similar position to the Bills, with three receivers being flex options. Between Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harris, all could have a game. Over recent weeks, Smith has been the clear leader in targets and yards. That being said, Callaway is on a three-game touchdown streak, and Harris has proved to be a hybrid of the two. I would start Smith, Harris, and Callaway in that order this week.
For my final Thanksgiving picks, I’ll be choosing my first favorite on the day. I struggle to see a game where Buffalo does not come out with vengeance and force people to forget their embarrassing performance last week. As a result, I love this line for the game and have been debating the Over/Under all day. Either Way, here are my picks. Once again I hope you all have a wonderful day and a great long weekend.
Ellis’ Picks: Bills -6.0 (7-4), Over 45.5 (9-2)
Career record: Spread (16-13), Over/Under (18-11)
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