The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 18

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, with many fantasy managers scrambling to see if their team has improved or worsened as a result of some moves. Some players will be on new teams and see their value tank while others stayed put and could see less playing time. Then, of course, there are still plenty of players who weren't impacted by the trade deadline, but have been struggling for some time and are in consideration for dropping.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As we near the end of the season, we need to consider making moves with specific targets in mind. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Luis Severino – SP/RP, New York Yankees – 76% rostered

In his first full season since Tommy John Surgery (TJS), Severino has looked good and somewhere close to his best. In 16 starts, he had a 5-3 W-L record, 3.45 ERA, 1.07 ERA, and 95 Ks (86.0 IP). His underlying numbers back up his performance too, with a 3.05 xERA (82nd percentile), 3.48 xFIP, and 3.40 SIERA.

Unfortunately, Severino hit the IL on July 14th with a lat strain which looked set to see him miss out on a few weeks. Initially, he was placed on the 15-day IL and expected to be shut down for two weeks. But then came the news that the Yankees had placed Severino on the 60-day IL, ruling him out until mid-September.

Severino seemed unhappy with that decision and there's been some confusion surrounding the move, especially as the Yankees also traded away Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline. But GM Brian Cashman tried to clarify the move, explaining there was some confusion regarding the initial timeline for a return.

Cashman seems to have Severino lined up to make five regular season starts on his return, readying himself for the postseason. That postseason preparations are the entire focus for the Yankees right now, which makes sense, but may lead to some interesting decisions in the coming weeks.

The good news is Severino isn't being looked at as a reliever on his return and should be able to get stretched out enough to be starting on his return. How long those starts are for remains to be seen as the Yankees look like playing things out carefully given Severino's TJS in 2020.

Verdict: As is my mantra "if you can stash Severino on your IL, then do so." But keep in mind he's now going to miss the next five to six weeks and we don't know how stretched out he'll be so may still only manage 20 - 25 innings total on his return. Too many question marks remain to justify Severino as a "must keep".

Jon Gray – SP, Texas Rangers – 63 % rostered

Gray was another pitcher in the midst of a great season that has been derailed by injury. A strained oblique has seen the righty hit the IL and he is expected to miss four to six weeks, effectively ruling out a return until September.

Gray's first season with the Rangers had been a good one until the injury, with a 7-6 W-L record, 3.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 116 Ks (103.1 IP). His 27.1% K% is a career-high while his 3.54 xERA, 3.34 xFIP, and 3.47 SIERA all suggest his ERA could be even lower at this point.

I wasn't one who subscribed to the narrative of Gray becoming elite once he moved away from Coors Field as his career splits suggest it wasn't just a "pitching in Colorado" issue. In fact, Gray's career numbers at home are better than on the road.

Split	IP	ERA	WHIP	xFIP	K%	BB%
Home	448.2	4.47	1.27	3.54	24.1%	6.8%
Road	484.0	4.54	1.37	3.94	24.3%	8.9%

Don't get me wrong, I've always liked Gray and would regularly draft him in the later rounds as fantasy managers would be scared off by the Coors Field narrative. But Gray has taken a step forward this year, which makes it all the more frustrating that he's set to miss the next few weeks.

Verdict: Same as Severino; if you can stash Gray, do so. But given he's lost at least half of his projected remaining starts, if you need the roster spot for someone who will help your teams now, Gray can be dropped. Given the Rangers are unlikely to make a postseason push and Gray is in the first year of a four-year deal, they might opt to be extra careful with him too.

Eduardo Escobar – 1B/2B/3B, New York Mets – 46% rostered

It's fair to say that 2022 has been pretty dreadful for Escobar. In the first year of a two-year contract with the Mets, the veteran infielder is hitting .220/.271/.394 with 12 homers, 43 RBI, 41 runs, and no stolen bases (96 games). Escobar was already only a deeper league utility guy but Buck Showalter may have hit the final nail in Escobar's fantasy coffin.

Showalter hinted that Escobar will be in a platoon with Luis Guillorme moving forward, despite being a switch hitter, and only start against left-handed pitching (LHP). So far this week, Escobar's only starts came against Patrick Corbin and Max Fried so Showalter is being true to his word.

If we look at Escobar's splits and compare them to Guillorme's, we can see why the Mets manager has made this move.

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRC+	K%	BB%
Escobar vs RHP	266	.202	.262	.333	.128	.259	70	25.6%	7.9%
Guillorme vs RHP	187	.307	.378	.398	.090	.344	127	13.4%	10.2%
Escobar vs LHP	125	.265	.296	.530	.265	.348	130	24.8%	4.0%
Guillorme vs LHP	72	.226	.333	.290	.065	.289	90	12.5%	13.9%

I'm not anointing Guillorme as the new David Wright for the Mets and he's only worth an add in deep leagues. But between Escobar's poor performances and the news, he's on the weak side of a platoon and has basically ended his fantasy value for this season.

Verdict: Unless you have deep benches and daily roster moves allowing you to start Escobar against LHP, there isn't really any point in keeping him around. In weekly roster leagues, you'll be taking zeros for most of the week and even when Escobar does play, his numbers against LHP are only good, not elite, and certainly not worth taking the zeros for the rest of the week.

 

Hold For Now

Raisel Iglesias – RP, Atlanta Braves – 91% rostered

Earlier this week, I included Iglesias in my Winners and Losers from the Trade Deadline as one of the big losers from the trade deadline. That's purely down to the fact that Iglesias has gone from being a closer to a "secondary closer".

If you're not sure what a secondary closer is, that's what Brian Snitker called Iglesias after the trade, with Kenley Jansen acting as the primary closer. What Snitker has basically said is Jansen will continue as the Braves closer and Iglesias will just pick up the odd save when Jansen is unavailable.

If you don't want to go back and read the Winners and Losers article, the reasoning for Iglesias to lose his value is from my rudimentary maths;

If we look at the breakdown of saves for Braves relievers so far this year, Jansen has 24 while 12 have been split between A.J. Minter, Will Smith (now with the Astros), and Jackson Stephens. So, Jansen has two-thirds of the team saves with a third being available potentially to Iglesias moving forward.

Yes, this is rough maths but if we say there have been nine saves a month so far, that leaves 18 over the remainder of 2022. If Jansen has two-thirds of them, Iglesias could realistically pick up six saves the rest of the season. Of course, Jansen could miss time, be ineffective, etc and this is very rough math, but the point remains.

But Jansen hasn't been lights out this year, with a 3.57 ERA, so Iglesias is at least poised to step up to the primary closer role if Jansen struggles or misses time (which is possible considering his health issues).

In shallow leagues, Iglesias is a safer drop but if you're in need of saves or in deeper leagues where saves are harder to come by, Iglesias is still a solid hold. Speaking of holds, in leagues counting holds, I expect Iglesias to be the main setup guy for Jansen so could be one of the top relievers over the next two months.

Travis d'Arnaud – C, Atlanta Braves – 76% rostered

Given the number of leagues d'Arnaud is still rostered in, some of you may not have noticed that he is actually in a job share with William Contreras and is being completely outplayed offensively by the younger catcher.

On the year, d'Arnaud is hitting .257/.308/.441 with 11 homers, 40 RBI, 40 runs, and no steals (72 games). Which is certainly not too bad for a catcher and actually leaves him ranked as the ninth-best fantasy catcher overall (based on Yahoo! rankings in standard 5x5 category leagues).

So why am I including him in The Cut List? Well, as mentioned, d'Arnaud has been in a timeshare for the catcher position. Since June 1st, Contreras has started 34 games while d'Arnaud has started 36, although Contreras gets starts at DH more frequently.

And since July 1st, Contreras has been completely outplaying d'Arnaud as we can see from the below numbers. That has left Contreras as the 10th-ranked catcher on Yahoo! this season.

Since July 01st	Games	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	R	SB
D’Arnaud	20	.224	.307	.269	0	4	8	0
Contreras	19	.254	.347	.556	6	10	10	0

Contreras hasn't taken over the catcher role full-time because he's considerably worse defensively. He ranks in the eighth percentile for framing while d'Arnaud ranks in the 54th percentile. Not elite, but above average and significantly better than Contreras.

And that's why I'm not suggesting you drop d'Arnaud yet. His defense will keep him in the lineup and he likely won't continue hitting as he has over the last five weeks. The fact he still ranks as a top-1o catcher despite his slump shows how productive he can be.

In yesterday's doubleheader with the Mets, d'Arnaud suffered a leg injury. X-rays were negative and he's currently considered day-to-day. Any significant period of time missed by d'Arnaud could see him droppable in all leagues.

Assuming he avoids the IL, if we do see a significant drop-off in d'Arnaud's playing time or a continued slump in his hitting, then it may be worth checking out the waiver wire for a better option for your fantasy teams anyway.

Tommy Pham – OF, Boston Red Sox – 48% rostered

Another player who was traded this week was Pham, moving from the Reds to the Red Sox. It appears to be one of those lesser fanfare moves that can have a big impact on his new team over the next few weeks. And while that may turn out to be the case, Pham has been ice cold in recent weeks.

Pham has been a below-league-average hitter since July 1st and hasn't hit a home run since June. His season's numbers aren't too bad, with 11 homers, 39 RBI, 60 runs, and seven steals while hitting .233/.314/.367 (96 games). That's left him ranked as the 49th outfielder on Yahoo!

Despite having one of the worst records in baseball, the Reds rank 18th in runs scored (457), helped by having one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB. That certainly helped Pham score the 11th-most runs of any outfielders. And the good news is, his new situation isn't a worse one.

While Fenway Park isn't as hitter-friendly as Great American Ball Park, it still ranks as the third best for offense (GABP ranks second overall). And the Red Sox offense is better than the Reds, ranking tied-10th in runs scored (488). So all-in-all, Pham's situation has improved a bit.

The good news for Pham's fantasy managers is he has hit second in the Red Sox lineup since joining (and even led off last night), meaning he is still hitting in a prime spot. Everything is set up for Pham to have a big final two months of the season. He just needs to actually start producing at the plate to warrant staying on fantasy rosters.

 

On the Hot Seat

J.D. Martinez - OF, Boston Red Sox - 97% rostered

In the final year of his contract, stories were plentiful about the Red Sox possibly being sellers at the deadline and Martinez being one of the most likely departures. But the Red Sox added a bit, subtracted a bit, and kept a lot, including their veteran DH.

Martinez is having a bit of a down year in the power department, and on the season has nine homers, 42 RBI, 53 runs, and no steals while hitting .281/.346/.450 (92 games). Considering Martinez hit 124 homers in 415 games between 2017 - 2019, hitting only 44 homers in 294 games since 2020 is a significant drop in power.

Despite Fenway Park being so hitter-friendly, it has likely contributed to Martinez's low home run count. Below is his spray chart for the season overlayed onto Fenway Park. You will see how the Green Monster has taken away some homers and turned them into singles or doubles.

That's largely down to how many line drives Martinez hits. Among 151 qualified hitters, Martinez's 29.4% line drive rate (LD%) ranked fifth highest. He certainly has no problem hitting the ball hard, as evidenced by his Statcast profile.

Martinez has an expected home run (xHR) total of 11.8 this year but if we look at his xHR by ballpark, he only has 10 at Fenway Park. Only five parks have a lower xHR for Martinez, while he has an xHR total of 19 at Minute Maid Park and Great American Ball Park. Maybe a trade will have actually helped Martinez.

And despite Martinez's solid numbers on the season (which ranks him as the 47th outfielder on Yahoo!), he's struggled considerably in recent weeks, ranking as the 149th outfielder over the past 30 days. He's only hitting .198/.241/.327 with one homer, nine RBI, nine runs, and no steals since July 1st (26 games).

There haven't been any injury concerns with Martinez and his quality of contact numbers in recent weeks are very similar to before his struggles (as we can see below) so it just appears as though Martinez is going through a rough stretch.

Period	AVG	SLG	wRC+	Average exit velo	HardHit%	Barrel%
Pre-July 01st	.313	.498	147	89.8 MPH	42.6%	12.3%
Since July 01st	.198	.327	47	88.5 MPH	42.9%	15.7%

The only significant change in Martinez's numbers is the contact he's making (with a 64.9% contact% since July 1st, down from 74.4%). His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is up from 13.3% to 18.6% during those periods too. So while Martinez's quality of contact remains good, he's just making less of it.

I'm not prepared to drop Martinez and it wouldn't surprise me if we find out in the offseason that he's had a niggling injury that's hampered him a bit. But considering the quality of contact he's still making, the struggles don't appear to be health-related and I expect Martinez to get back to his earlier season form in August.

 

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Pablo Lopez – SP, Miami Marlins – 93% rostered

Lopez appeared set to be a last-minute mover at the deadline, with the Yankees and Dodgers interested. But he's stayed in Miami and would have been arguably the biggest pitching pick-up of the deadline, possibly usurping Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas.

But, the Marlins asking price appeared too high for his suitors and he stayed put. Good news for Marlins fans but it's likely teams will revisit a possible trade in the offseason. For his fantasy managers, Lopez remaining in Miami helps with the ballpark but isn't great for his chances of picking up wins.

On the year, Lopez has a 7-7 W-L record, 3.57 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 125 Ks (123.2 IP). That's good enough to rank as the 52nd starting pitcher eligible player on Yahoo! So certainly doesn't look like someone you want to consider dropping.

To give you an idea of how much one start can impact things, before yesterday, Lopez was ranked as the 39th starting pitcher. After giving up four earned runs in five innings against the Cubs (on nine hits, two walks with six strikeouts), he dropped 13 places in the rankings.

Fantasy manager's concerns likely stem from his previous start (six earned runs in 2.2 IP) which came just two starts after a five earned runs in 5.0 IP outing. Three of his last four starts haven't been good but the three outings before that totaled 16.1 IP and saw Lopez give up a combined four earned runs.

Lopez has a 3.67 xERA, 3.46 xFIP, and 3.58 SIERA, so his underlying numbers are similar to his actual ERA. The only concern I have with Lopez is his workload as the 123.2 IP is the most he's thrown in the Majors. But he's not heading to a large number of innings and I don't see anything to suggest Lopez will no longer be rosterable in fantasy.

Jorge Polanco – 2B/SS, Minnesota Twins – 93% rostered

The Twins switch-hitting middle infielder missed two weeks in June with a back injury but has been a decent, if unspectacular performer. In 88 games, Polanco is hitting .238/.352/.413 with 14 homers, 51 RBI, 47 runs, and three stolen bases. Seeing Polanco's OBP, it will come as no surprise his 15.2% BB% ranks in the 99th percentile.

The main struggle Polanco has had is hitting from the right side as we can see from his splits below. He's got better career numbers versus right-handed pitching (RHP) but the difference this year is much starker.

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRC+	K%	BB%
Vs LHP	119	.232	.292	.315	.075	.262	68	16.0%	8.4%
Vs RHP	261	.241	.379	.462	.226	.371	144	23.3%	18.7%

There doesn't appear to be any concerns about a platoon for Polanco and even if there were, he'd be on the strong side of it at least. But Polanco isn't necessarily someone I'd be starting against LHP in daily roster moves.

Polanco mainly hits in the top half of the Twins lineup and has hit third or fourth in every start over the last fortnight, apart from one leadoff appearance. And the Twins' offense ranks tied-12th in runs scored (486) so Polanco should be able to continue tallying decent runs and RBI.

In leagues counting walks/OBP, Polanco is considerably more valuable than in standard 5x5 leagues. But he's still a solid middle infield contributor in all but the shallowest leagues and is the type of boring, well-rounded fantasy player I like to just plug into my lineup and forget about in weekly leagues.

Marcell Ozuna – OF, Atlanta Braves – 75% rostered

Like so many others, Ozuna has seen a drop off in his batting average this year but is still hitting for power. In 101 games, he has a .217/.269/.395 slash line with 19 homers, 42 RBI, 48 runs, and two stolen bases. He entered the season with a career .273 batting average so has seen a significant decline.

Ozuna does have better expected stats, with a .252 xBA and .478 xSLG while his .237 BABIP is a career-low, so he can consider himself unlucky. But only 10 outfielders have more home runs than Ozuna, and two of them are on the IL, so he's still been a very good source of power.

Only 10 outfielders can match or better Ozuna's 19 homers, 42 RBI, and 48 runs so outside of his batting average, he's been a solid contributor. I mentioned a few weeks ago that if you can pair an Ozuna with someone like Jeff McNeil, they combine for two nearly complete players (sans some steals) so as long as you can stomach the batting average, Ozuna is still rosterable.

In points leagues or those using OBP etc, his 6.4% BB% (29th percentile) is even more of a drag so depending on how your points are structured, Ozuna might not be worthy of rostering in shallower leagues. But given his bad luck so far, a turnaround in his batting average shouldn't come as a surprise.

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