The Cut List - Time To Let Go? Week 3

As a hardcore NFL fan and one who loves to play couch-General Manager a little more than I probably should, the one thing I've learned is that mistakes are okay. They're going to happen. Drafting in the NFL Draft or fantasy football for that matter is incredibly difficult. Don't believe me? Go back and look at the championship team of whatever league you're in. Look at their Week 1 roster and their championship roster and look at how many new names and faces are on there. Undoubtedly, there will be a ton. Embrace your mistakes, but if there's one thing that really just grinds my gears, it's not being able to admit mistakes were made.

As a diehard Green Bay Packers fan, I look at our roster this year and for the most part, it's very solid. Quiet y'all... I know Week 1 was ugly. It was just first-game jitters. But look here, Kevin King was drafted in the 2017 NFL Draft. He was a tall, lengthy, super athletic cornerback out of Washington and had all the raw tools a general manager could ask for. I mean, if it was me, I would've just taken T.J. Watt and been done with it, but don't get me started there. I can understand the appeal of King coming out of college. The problem is, Kevin King has not been a good NFL cornerback. Last year he was a major liability. Don't compound your mistakes by refusing to admit a mistake was even made in the first place. What's that have to do with Kevin King? Well, after a terrible 2020 season, the Packers re-signed him and brought him back. Why? A mistake was made in the draft, that happens. No big deal, just don't make it worse by re-signing him.

I could do the same thing with Tyler Lancaster and our run defense, but honestly, we'd be here all day. The same principle applies. The Packers' run defense was garbage in 2020. The Packers resigned Tyler Lancaster who is generally viewed as solely a run-stopping defensive lineman. Now, that's not to say it's all Lancaster's fault because it's not, but if the run defense in 2020 wasn't good, why run it back and expect a different result? There's a saying about that I think... Anyways, this is about fantasy football. The point I was trying to make before I got on my Packer tangent is this: you're going to make mistakes in your fantasy draft. That's okay, you don't need to have a perfect draft to win a championship. What you do need to be able to do is admit mistakes were made and be willing to correct those mistakes. So who are some guys who look like mistakes that need to be corrected? Let's get started.

Editor's Note: With every add comes a drop. So be sure to also read our Week 3 waiver wire articles for in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, defenses, kickers, recommended FAB waiver wire bids.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

36.4% rostered

Wow. Okay, so we've known about the splits between Matt Ryan with and without Julio Jones. Below is a tweet that illustrates just how significant those splits are. Mind you, this does not include Week 1 and Week 2 of the 2021 season, so those splits you see below, they're actually even worse.

Matt Ryan has been an absolute train wreck without Julio Jones on the field. pic.twitter.com/dfxNTo9Jul

— Curtis Patrick ? (@CPatrickNFL) December 19, 2020

To be fair to Ryan, Week 2 was a very difficult matchup. Maybe the most difficult he'll face all year (at Tampa Bay). It doesn't much matter. He looks awful through two games. His 5.7 yards per attempt average through two weeks is currently 28th. He's averaging only 232 yards per game and has a negative touchdown to interception ratio (2:3). To make matters even worse, two of those three interceptions were returned for touchdowns.

The Falcons' offense is learning a new system under head coach Arthur Smith and it hasn't started to click yet. Unfortunately, your fantasy team cannot sit around and wait until it does. In the meantime, if you're in need of a quarterback, do yourself a favor and go grab Kirk Cousins (24.5% ownership) or Derek Carr (16.6% ownership), you'll be better off.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

36% rostered

This Pittsburgh passing game is boring. There's no upside here. Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are shallow targets who lack big-play potential. This will likely upset the tidal wave of Diontae Johnson fans, but the numbers are the numbers. Whether that's because of the offensive line or because that's simply where their talent lies is irrelevant because that's what the numbers are telling us is true in 2021 and it was true in 2020 as well.

#Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger's YPA in his last 11 games: 5.92 https://t.co/e5ESef9RRh

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) September 13, 2021

Through two games Big Ben has a 6.7 yard per attempt average, which is tied for 24th in the league. He's tied with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, who just threw four interceptions against the Patriots. You'd think with the short distance throwing the Steelers are using that Big Ben would have a high completion percentage, but you'd be wrong. He's completed just 62.5% of his passes, which is ranked 26th in the NFL. Right above him is Daniel Jones, just for some perspective.

Making matters even uglier is the fact Diontae Johnson left last week's game with a knee injury. Reports are the injury is not serious, but it appears to be the same knee that knocked him out of Week 1's contest for a bit. It's unknown at this time if Johnson will miss any time, but he's been Roethlisberger's security blanket this year and last and if he doesn't suit up, the passing game and how Big Ben performs becomes a giant question mark.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram II, Houston Texans

33.9% rostered

Mark Ingram is to the 2021 running back position what Frank Gore was to the 2020 running back position. You didn't want to roster Frank Gore. You don't need to roster Mark Ingram. Yes, he had a decent Week 1. No, that's not going to happen again, and if by chance it does, it'll happen on your bench. Ingram is a two-down plodder in a bad offense on a bad NFL team. There is very little if any value to that.

Through two games, Ingram has received just three targets. He has managed to catch one of them. For negative yardage. When looking at the fantasy value a running back in a bad offense can provide, they need to have one of two things. The first is a monopoly on the running back touches. Ingram does not have that. The second is a large role in the passing game. Ingram does not have that either.

The former Raven is going to give you anywhere between 3–8 points per week unless he happens to fall into the end zone, which will be very difficult to predict when that will happen. Making matters even worse is the fact that Tyrod Taylor, their starting quarterback, is now injured. If he cannot play in Week 3, rookie Davis Mills will get the call, which will significantly hinder the offensive prospects for all Texan players.

Tevin Coleman, New York Jets

17.6% rostered

This has played out mostly as we expected. Coleman was given the starting nod largely because of his familiarity with the offense LaFleur was bringing over from San Francisco, but few expected Coleman to actually hang onto the starting job. It didn't take long – two weeks to be exact – before he was largely phased out. Ty Johnson and Michael Carter combined for 23 carries while Coleman received only five. Through two weeks, Carter and Johnson both have targets to their name while Coleman has not received a single look in the passing game.

In Week 1, Tevin Coleman had nine carries.

In Week 2, he played seven snaps. His first carry came in the second quarter. Ty Johnson and Michael Carter split snaps (33-33), carries (12-11), and routes run (15-16) evenly. Carter had three targets.

Youth movement in NYJ backfield.

— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) September 20, 2021

This backfield still has the look of a committee with Ty Johnson and Michael Carter leading the way. Coleman's value was low before, but now being the third-wheel in a largely unproductive threesome, fantasy managers can safely cut bait and move on.

Le'Veon Bell, Baltimore Ravens

25.3% rostered

We're going to keep this short and sweet. Devonta Freeman was brought up to the active roster before Le'Veon Bell. The former Falcon averaged 3.2 yards per carry in 2020 and 3.6 yards in 2019. If Bell is unable to beat out Freeman, there are some really big problems. In any case, this backfield is a full-blown committee and even if  Bell happens to sneak his way into that committee, there's very little value to the handful of touches (if that) he would get on any given week. There are a plethora of other waiver wire options that are not only more talented, but have a much clearer path to fantasy relevance. Bell is the first player to make this list twice through two weeks and he'll likely continue to make this list until his ownership is where it belongs, or at least below 20%.

Giovani Bernard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

15.5% rostered

When the Buccaneers signed Giovani Bernard, there was some hope he would turn into James White. Through two weeks, Bernard has just five targets and four catches for 28 yards. In full-PPR, he's scored a total of 6.8 points. Here's the thing with the James White comparisons – James White existed in New England because he needed to exist. Tom Brady did not have the outside weapons that he has in Tampa Bay.

Offenses and quarterbacks nowadays want to push the ball downfield. Offenses are becoming more aggressive and dumping it off to your running back for 6–7 yards just isn't very fun. Certainly not as fun as chucking it downfield to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski or....you get the point.

The offensive line in Tampa is one of the best in the league, which means Brady often has time to let his receiver's deeper routes develop. There's simply is not a need for Bernard's role with the roster construction of the Buccaneers. Bernard is the two-minute running back. How often does this Buccaneer team look like they're going to be trailing on the scoreboard and playing catch-up? That's right, very little.

Buccaneers HB snap count #ATLvsTB

Leonard Fournette 31
Ronald Jones 26
Giovani Bernard 6

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 19, 2021

Brady has more weapons than he knows what to do with. He has an offensive line that gives him all the time in the world. The James White role isn't needed here, which means there is very little use for Bernard in this offense.

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons

28.1% rostered

Gage, to his credit, got a little more involved in Week 2, totaling seven targets. He didn't do anything with them, however. He caught five of them for 28 yards, which brings his seasonal total to, you guessed it, five catches for 28 yards.

Calvin Ridley is the alpha in this offense and Kyle Pitts has immediately slid into the No. 2 role, which has left Gage vying for the third on the target hierarchy in an inefficient passing attack. Ridley and Pitts are going to get targets because they're the most talented players on this team. Gage will be fighting for Matt Ryan's attention with Hayden Hurst, Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson. It's difficult enough to make a life as the No. 3 target in a high-scoring offense. It becomes pretty much impossible when the offense is below-average.

A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals

25.6% rostered

Green finds himself on this list despite catching a touchdown pass in Week 2. Through two games, Rondale Moore has 13 targets, catching 11 of them for 182 yards and a score. Christian Kirk has nine targets and has caught eight of them for 135 yards with two scores. AJ Green has 12 targets. He's caught just five of them for 69 yards and one score. It's clear he is the fourth-most productive wide receiver Arizona has. Moore and Kirk are both younger and have more juice. It only makes sense for those two receivers to get better as the season goes along.

He's had a Hall of Fame career, without question, but he was last fantasy relevant in 2017. His PFF score was 66.3 last season. It's down to 53.7 this season. Fantasy managers should expect Green to continue to be phased out of this offense as Moore and Kirk continue to separate themselves from the old-timer. I'd rather roster Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tim Patrick, Bryan Edwards, Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, Zach Pascal, Van Jefferson, Dyami Brown and KJ Osborn, all of whom have lower ownership percentages going into Week 3.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

70.2% rostered

He was on the hot seat last week and now he can be safely dropped in 12-team formats. While Week 2 was slightly better with six targets, it was still a modest showing considering Will Fuller was once again inactive. With Fuller expected to return in Week 3, Gesicki drops just a bit further down on the target hierarchy and his current placement was barely leaving him as a viable starter.

Mike Gesicki had 0 catches on 2 targets, Will Fuller V is no longer suspended, and Adam Shaheen is back to practice.

He will have 2-3 big games this season, but I don't know when they will happen, and it's not worth starting him at TE every week waiting for those 2-3 games.

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 15, 2021

The injury to Tua Tagovailoa only increases the concerns with Gesicki's fantasy prospects. The switch to Jacoby Brissett will likely limit the passing game in Miami. While the matchup against Las Vegas has some fantasy appeal, the following two opponents are the Colts and Buccaneers, two defenses fantasy managers will likely want to avoid.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

39.6% rostered

There was hope coming into the 2021 fantasy season that the Patriots would run their passing offense through their two highly-priced tight ends, but so far that has not been the case. For Hunter Henry, he's been the 1B to Jonnu Smith's 1A. At this time, neither of these players can be safely started with confidence, especially the 1B. While Henry does have three more receiving yards than Smith, he has three fewer targets and four fewer catches. This Patriots' offense is going to lean on their running game in a big way.

Don't Give Up...

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

84.8% rostered

It's been a rough start to the season for Tannehill and the Titans' offense, but some of that was to be expected with a new offensive coordinator and Julio Jones' arrival. Still, fantasy managers wouldn't have expected it to be this slow. With weapons such as A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and Derrick Henry, there are most certainly going to be better days ahead. Since he became the starter in Tennessee – not counting the first two games of this season – Tannehill has actually outscored Russell Wilson. That's the upside you're getting with Tannehill. It hasn't been pretty yet, but patience is important in these situations. The offense is learning a new system with some new pieces to work around. I trust the talent here in Tennessee.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields' first real appearance as a rookie certainly didn't set the world on fire like many in the fantasy community were expecting and undoubtedly hoping for, but he still possesses the kind of upside that is worth the bench stash. Fields is able to rack points with his legs, which fantasy managers know is the kind of X-factor we are always chasing. There's no way Matt Nagy sticks with Andy Dalton all year, and when Fields gets his chance, he may very well light the league on fire. The news that Andy Dalton is going to be the starter as long as he's healthy is certainly not the kind of news fantasy managers want to hear, but the time will come for Fields and the upside is worth holding on to.

On the Hot Seat

Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

71.2% rostered

If you're playing in a shallow league – think 10-teams or smaller – you can safely drop RoJo. If you're playing in a 12-team league, I'd suggest holding for 1–2 more weeks. In Week 1, Jones fumbled and was never heard from again. In Week 2, despite an awesome game script in which the Buccaneers cruised to a rather easy win, Jones was only given six carries. Fournette is clearly the lead back in this offense right now and Jones shouldn't be anywhere near the starting lineup. I believe at this stage of their careers, RoJo is the better rusher than Fournette, but what I think does not matter. Bruce Arians clearly does not feel the same way and that's the problem.

He got six carries in a positive game-script yesterday and didn’t even fumble…I couldn’t be more off of Ronald Jones right now

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 20, 2021

With upcoming games against the Rams and Patriots, the sledding may not get any easier. Jones finished as a top-20 running back last year in half-PPR formats and that kind of upside is worth holding onto. However, it's getting more and more difficult to find optimism.

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints

65.9% rostered

The preseason darling has been a massive disappointment thus far through two weeks. He has combined for three catches and 22 yards on just six targets. It's been brutal for someone many expected to be Winston's No. 1 target. Callaway isn't a must drop considering he is still a starter and has a clear pathway to targets – if he can earn them – but I'd much rather take a stab at Rondale Moore or several other waiver wire players that have popped in recent weeks.

Fantasy managers have gotten two different looks at the Saints' offense this season. We got the "Holy crap! Look at Winston go!" game in Week 1 and we got the "There's the Winston we've missed." game in Week 2. I tend to believe we'll see more of the latter, unfortunately. The reality is his weapons in New Orleans are not anything close to the weapons he had in Tampa Bay when he shined as a fantasy asset. He made a lot of bone-headed decisions in Tampa, but his skill players were talented enough to make up for them. He does not have that same luxury with the Saints.

Looking ahead, the Saints have the Patriots, the Giants and the Football Team on its docket until they reach their bye week in Week 6. None of those matchups are particularly inviting. The Patriots have an excellent defense so far. The Giants have James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson in the secondary. Washington's defense has one of the more talented front-sevens in all of football. I can't envision a scenario where I'm starting Callaway in any of the next four weeks, and if that's the case, I'd rather swing for the fences with a player on the waiver wire. Once the Saints get past the bye week, Michael Thomas is set to return. That could be the end of Callaway as a dependable fantasy asset.

Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

20.9% rostered

Josh Allen and the passing attack in Buffalo have started out slowly. The Week 1 matchup against Pittsburgh was a really tough opening day matchup and in Week 2 they got out ahead of the Dolphins early and were able to cruise to an easy victory. There's no reason to expect this offense to stay quiet for very long though.

#Bills Week 2 WR route rates:

Stefon Diggs - 89%
Emmanuel Sanders - 86%
Cole Beasley - 76%
Gabriel Davis - 32%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 20, 2021

Sanders was in the top-10 in Week 1 in total air yards, which shows that he's got upside in this offense. He has been on the field for a high percentage of Allen's dropbacks and has seen some time in the slot as well. Eventually, that is going to pay dividends. He might not be viewed as a weekly starter, but he should carry value as a bye-week or injury replacement. We need to start seeing production here, but some of that is on the entire passing offense.

Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots

78.9% rostered

Earlier in the article, I listed Henry as a cut candidate working as the 1B in this tight end duo in New England, which puts Jonnu on the hot seat. There were legitimate concerns if the Patriots could sustain two fantasy-viable tight ends and through two weeks it does not appear that they can. While there was hope Mac Jones could create a more productive passing offense in New England, the game plan has still largely been centered around the run game. Jones does not seem to have a favorite either, which is another thing deflating all the receiving weapons in New England.

Patriots WR/TE/RB routes run in Week 2

Nelson Agholor - 33
Jakobi Meyers - 33
Hunter Henry - 26
Kendrick Bourne - 26
James White - 20
Jonnu Smith - 12 ❄
Damien Harris - 8#NEvsNYJ

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 19, 2021

The tweet above illustrates another concerning trend, the lack of routes run. This could be because of his questionable tag and hip injury, but even if there is a viable excuse, it doesn't help fantasy managers regardless. It appears the Patriots prefer to get the ball to Smith over Henry as he has out-targeted his teammate and has more catches, but it hasn't led to much fantasy production. Because of that preference thus far through two weeks, Smith is the one that is going to get another 1–2 weeks. If fantasy managers don't start getting production, however, he too can be safely dropped.

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