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We had some great games in Week 2 and some surprising DST scores for defense. We also had some games impacted by late-week injury designations, like Carolina moving into the top-10 when we learned about eight New Orleans coaches missing Sunday's game. As always, make sure you bookmark the link to the rankings GoogleSheet, so you can see the updated rankings as close to kickoff as possible.
My other recommendation as we forge ahead in the season is not to react too drastically to just one or two games. For instance, the Colts put up the 7th best finish for a DST based on FantasyPros rankings; however, they earned half of their points on one play when the Rams' long-snapper hit his teammate's arm on the snap, which resulted in a Colts touchdown. It was a flukey play that I've never seen in three decades watching football, so we need to keep that in mind when we think of how the Colts played as a fantasy unit this week.
I'm also guilty of reacting too drastically with my ranking of the 49ers DST. I thought the Eagles' offense looked great in Week 1 and was worried about the 49ers secondary being a bit banged up so, even though I like their defense, I moved them to 14th last week. They finished tied for 10th, so it wasn't a huge miss, but it was an over-reaction on my part to lose faith in a team - or put too much faith in another - based on one game. Overall, we finished with six of the top-10 defenses correctly chosen (not including the Packers, who have yet to play) which is closer to where we want to be; however, the early weeks are all about learning more about the true talent of these teams, as I mentioned above.
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Picking The Right Defenses
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 3 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: DOWN (Defenses of Weekly Note) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success. You can see the full leaderboard and formula explanation here. It's important to clarify that the DOWN rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings and probably won't stabilize until a few weeks into the season so don't overreact to them after the first few weeks. DOWN is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their DOWN ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses
Denver was a mild letdown as my number one defense last week. They still put up nine fantasy points and finished as the 8th-best unit (according to FantasyPros rankings), but we had hoped for more against the Jaguars. Fortunately for fantasy managers who added the Broncos, you can hold onto them against a Jets team that leads the NFL with 10 sacks allowed through two games. It was hard to watch that game against the Patriots and come away confident in Zach Wilson. This offensive line is already injured, and I think this offense is in trouble. The Broncos haven't gotten the pressure rates we want from their defense which is the only reason I have them below the Panthers to start out, but the Jets should be the cure for what ails them.
I can't believe I actually have the Panthers ranked this high, but this comes down to two things: their defense might be legit and the Texans offense is in trouble. So far, we've had some decent showings for the Texans offense, but one game was against a bad Jacksonville team, and the other was because Tyrod Taylor found the Fountain of Youth early against the Browns. Unfortunately, Tyrod is out for Week 3, and the Texans will have to turn to rookie Davis Mills against the Panthers. That's not a recipe for success considering the Panthers led the NFL in sacks, pressure rate, and QB hurry rate. Playing the Jets and the Jameis Winston-led Saints isn't the toughest draw to start the season, but they have also come to play. Adding Haason Reddick and Morgan Fox to a defense that featured young players, like Brian Burns, who are only going to get better, it's fair to wonder whether we may be watching an ascending unit.
The Ravens haven't looked great on defense so far this season, but they've also played the Chiefs and a surprising Las Vegas team, so I'm trying not to read too much into it. Coming into the season, I was confident in the Ravens' defensive talent and blitz-heavy scheme leading them to fantasy success, so I'm going to continue to believe for the time being until we can gauge just how good the Raiders' offense really is. I'm also just not a believer in Jared Goff. He continues to make terrible reads and look like a quarterback I want to pick on in fantasy. The Packers were only able to get the one sack on Monday night, but I think that says more about the Packers' poor defensive line than the Lions' offensive line. With Quintez Cephus as the WR1 in Detroit, I think the Ravens are going to attack and force Goff to beat them with his arm, and I just can't see it happening.
The Steelers round out my top tier despite a bit of a letdown against Las Vegas. Coming off of a dominant performance against Josh Allen and the Bills, I expected the Steelers to handle this Raiders team that it's clear I might be under-estimating. Still, the Steelers showed already that they are a strong defensive unit that will bring pressure, which is great news against a Bengals team that has given up sacks on 13.6% of their passing plays, most in the NFL. This offensive line is a mess, and we saw what can happen when you get pressure on Joe Burrow. It's possible the knee injuries have sapped his mobility and made him a less dynamic quarterback, but we do know that Pittsburgh will be coming after him on Sunday, and I think they can put up a big score.
Tier 2 Defenses
There is certainly an argument to be made that the Patriots could be a Tier One defense this week, but they've also played the Dolphins and Jets so far, so I'm trying to not over-react too much. Through two games, the Patriots are middle of the pack in pressure rate and yards per play allowed, so while I think this is a solid defensive unit, I'm not ready to suggest that they're elite. However, we also saw Jameis Winston flash old school Jameis on Sunday, so the Patriots remain a strong play. They will vary coverage and blitz packages to confuse Jameis, and I expect a few mistakes, like we saw on Sunday against the Panthers. In fact, the Panthers finished as the 5th-ranked DST against the Saints, so projecting a similar finish for the Patriots makes some sense to me.
Sliding into Tier Two is another defense that has failed to live up to expectations so far: the Cleveland Browns. I had high hopes for this unit coming into the season, and while they haven't been bad, they've simply been middle of the pack so far. However, I think this could be a good bounceback spot for them. I know people are excited about Justin Fields, but the athletic rookie quarterback looked a little rattled in his first NFL action on Sunday, which should remind us that, even though he is capable of excellence and excitement, he is still a rookie and will make mistakes. In particular, as a playmaker, Fields is often going to force the issue and try to make the big play, as we saw early in Josh Allen's career; that can lead to big plays for the defense. The Bears are 5th-worst in the NFL in sacks allowed per dropback and 9th-worst in offensive drives ending in a turnover, so I think the Browns can take advantage of that inexperience and make some big plays this weekend. (UPDATE: Andy Dalton is trending towards starting for Chicago, which means I like the Browns even more)
The Bills are currently the number one defense in fantasy after their dominant effort against the Dolphins. They also played a tremendous game against the Steelers but wore down late in the game after the offense repeatedly failed to move the ball and stay on the field. The attention to building the pass rush in the offseason has worked wonders so far and first-round pick Greg Rousseau looks like he could be a star. However, this Washington offensive line is no joke and will be a major test for the Bills defensive line. I'm still not a true believer in Taylor Heinicke, but I think this Washington offense is solid overall and will make it hard for the Bills to create the number of sacks and turnovers that we saw last week.
This ranking for the Saints is assuming Marshon Lattimore is back, which is rumored to be likely. While Mac Jones hasn't been near as brutal as Zach Wilson has to start his career, he also hasn't been setting the world on fire. The Patriots have designed a conservative scheme around their rookie signal-caller, which is great for real-life football but also puts a hard ceiling on their fantasy upside. As a result, I don't see this as a team that is going to put up major points or challenge opposing defenses. They also still don't seem to have many real dynamic playmakers on offense, so I think a good defensive unit, like the Saints, can win one-on-one matchups and create some turnovers. Mac Jones has also been good about not taking sacks so far, but I don't think he's seen a defense like the Saints yet, so I am predicting a few slip-ups on Sunday.
I guess the Raiders are my sleeper defense this week since most ranking sites have them in the 20s. I'm not sure I understand that. The Raiders are 8th in DOWN rankings thanks to being 8th in the NFL in pressure rate and QB hurry rate, tied for 10th in sacks, and 12th in drives ending in a score despite playing two solid offenses. They are 2-0 and have faced the Ravens and Steelers, so, as I mentioned above, it's time to start taking them seriously. However, it's not just the offense that has been impressive. The Raiders have gotten good pressure from their front seven and Johnathan Abram is everywhere, even though he got tossed by Najee Harris on Sunday (below). Still, I expect Tua Tagovailoa to miss this game, and Jacoby Brissett simply held the ball too long behind a mediocre offensive line. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most sacks per dropback and 3rd-most sacks total through two games, and I think the Raiders can capitalize and get to Brissett a few times, perhaps even adding a couple of turnovers to their ledger.
Well, I missed on the Cardinals last week as my sleeper defense, and I'll own that. I knew their secondary was suspect, but I thought they'd be able to get more pressure up front against that Minnesota offensive line. It never happened. However, before we rage-drop them, I think you need to give them another chance against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 3rd-worst in the NFL with 21.7% of their drives ending in turnovers. They have only allowed two sacks, but they have allowed a tremendous amount of pressure, which has led to these poor throws by Trevor Lawrence. Also, this Jacksonville scheme under Urban Meyer doesn't seem to push the ball down the field, and I'm not confident this offense can put up a big point total on anybody. That means when Kyler Murray and the offense put up 30+ points on this Jaguars defense, the Arizona defensive line can pin their ears back and come after Lawrence, racking up sacks or causing turnovers.
Tier 3 Defenses
There is simply only so far I can drop the Bucs and Rams since they are both truly strong fantasy units; however, a showdown against one another will pose real challenges for each team. As I mentioned above, the only reason the Colts put up the fantasy total they did against the Rams was because of a flukey botched snap on a punt that resulted in a defensive touchdown. If you take that away, the Colts put up four points, which I think is around the total we can expect from both of these defenses this weekend. It won't hurt you, but it's not going to help you win the week.
Perhaps I'm just being a cynical Bills fan, but this offense simply isn't clicking the way it was last year. It's still early, obviously, but Josh Allen is missing throws he usually makes and Brian Daboll is taking weird risks, including that fourth down lateral disaster against Pittsburgh. To add to that, the Bills' offensive line has been a real problem through the first two games, allowing far too much pressure on Allen. I still think the Bills are a strong offense and believe that Daboll and Allen will find their groove, but this is a truly strong Washington defense. Their defensive line is going to get lots of pressure on Allen, and the Bills have been turning the ball over a lot these first two weeks, so this could be another sloppy game.
This Seattle ranking is assuming that Dalvin Cook does not play. The Minnesota running back was in and out of the game on Sunday battling an ankle injury and is currently questionable to play on Sunday. It's a long season, and the Vikings offense relies so heavily on Cook that I expect them to be cautious with him this week, which means more Alexander Mattison and a less explosive offense. The Vikings are also going to give up a lot of points to Russell Wilson and company, which means this offense is going to need to throw to keep up. Without the distraction of an elite running game, that will mean that Seattle can be more aggressive in getting after Kirk Cousins. Considering they are 9th in pressure rate after two games and have six total sacks, I expect to see them harass Cousins early and often on Sunday.
Kansas City let up tons of points against the Ravens on Sunday night, but they still finished as the 12th-ranked defense by FantasyPros rankings. In fact, the Chiefs are really the prime example I always give for us needing to focus less on yardage and points allowed when ranking fantasy defenses. For years now, the Chiefs have been a big-play defense, selling out for interceptions and sacks. They know their offense will put up points, so they feel more confident in taking chances, which leads to defensive touchdowns and fantasy goodness. They now face a Chargers team that is last in the NFL with 25% of their drives ending in a turnover. That's bad news against a team that hunts for turnovers. I expect the Chargers to put up points, but I also expect them to make a few mistakes that led to fantasy goodness for the Chiefs' defense.
I was not really impressed with Green Bay's defense on Monday night. I know they beat the Lions and only allowed 17 points, but they really failed to get much pressure on Jared Goff at all, as evidenced by the tweets below from Walter Sharp. Their one sack came when Goff slipped and then just turtled up, and their interception was on some really poorly thrown ball late in the game. This isn't a great fantasy unit; however, the San Francisco offense is a bit stagnant with Jimmy Garropolo under center and their running back room is totally banged up with Raheem Mostert out for the year and now both Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon are questionable for this game with injuries. If the 49ers need Jimmy G to throw in order for them to win, it might be an ugly offensive performance.
Generally speaking, I think the Indianapolis defense is a much better real-life unit than a fantasy unit, but I'm intrigued by them this week. This Titans offensive line is in trouble right now. Taylor Lewan wasn't great in Week 1 and then missed Week 2 with an injury suffered in pre-game warm-ups. The Titans are 3rd-worst in the NFL with 10.6% sacks allowed on all dropbacks and are tied for 2nd-worst with nine sacks allowed through two games. The Colts don't often blitz, so if they are able to get pressure on Ryan Tannehill with just their front four, it will make it much harder for the Titans to move the ball through the air. Obviously, Derrick Henry is a beast and a tough opponent for any defense, but I think this Colts defense could be up to the task and continue the miscues of the Titans offense, who have four turnovers through the first two games.
The Dolphins' defense really didn't play a bad game against the Bills. Much like Green Bay in Week 1, the Dolphins defense had to defend short fields for much of the game and really only allowed two big plays. This secondary is one of the best in the league, and I think they remain a strong fantasy unit, but the Raiders are proving to be a tough matchup.
I also think the Jets defense is being underrated because their offense is so bad. This is an improving defense and they're playable this week against a mediocre Denver offense. If the Jets offense ever stops putting their defense in terrible spots, I think you'll see the Jets defense put up some solid fantasy totals.
Tier 4 Defenses
I like both the 49ers and Eagles defenses and will have them both in the top-10 a lot this season. I just can't rank them near that high this week given their opponents.
Tier 5 Defenses
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