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Austin Riley Day was a big success and yesterday's bets went 7-2 overall, so I hope you cashed in and made some loot. Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 10th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
It feels weird to have a full slate of pitchers and only be on TWO spots! But I dug and dug and there are simply too many really close spots that I don’t feel good enough about today. Let’s look at two lefties that I do like a lot at plus odds.
Jeffrey Springs o5.5K vs. MIL (+110 DK)
Springs is my dude and you know this! We no longer get him at 4.5 these days, but we do get a chance to grab him at plus money here to get six and as you can see from the chart, it’s all green across the board - something we don’t see all that often.
This kid has a great changeup, doesn’t walk guys, and is getting swings and misses in the zone. When you add in the elevated Brewer K rate to lefties, it projects for a 29% in-game strikeout rate. Based on a 5.1 inning projection, that puts him over six. I think he pitches six and gets seven, so if you want to go up on rung on the FD Alt-prop ladder, go for it.
Sean Manaea o5.5K vs. SFG (+100 DK)
Manaea had such a weird line in his last start. He gave up eight runs on 10 hits to the Dodgers, but still struck out seven! He’s had an up-and-down year and his K totals fluctuate quite a bit. But like Springs, he has a really good offspeed pitch (his slider), and while he doesn’t overpower hitters, he still gets his whiffs. The Giants’ K rate has been trending up, especially to lefties, and he’s gotten them for five and six strikeouts in two meetings. We need six, so we need him to pitch into the sixth inning, something he has done in four of his last seven starts.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Prop Bets
Austin Riley o1.5 TB (-110 DK)
So I wasn’t expecting to go back to the well on Riley, but a few things caught my eye this morning.
First of all, he has two HR in nine plate appearances against Pivetta (likely from when Nick was in Philly).
And when you look at what Pivetta throws it’s a hard fastball, slider, and curveball - all pitches that Riley (when he does make contact) absolutely crushes. We get better odds today since he no longer has the major platoon advantage, but Riley has hit RHP well all season too, so no reason to think he can’t drive one for extra bases on Pivetta.
Matt Chapman o1.5 TB (+120 DK)
I pulled some really interesting pitch-type data from my buddy Jon Anderson’s tableau this morning and I was digging through some match-ups.
Dean Kremer has been pretty decent for Baltimore this year, but his underlying numbers are still not good, especially to RHH as he’s been fairly reverse splits. He’s throwing his fastball and cutter almost exclusively to righties and saving his breaking ball for lefties. Chapman’s numbers against the cutter are…incredible. The 40% barrel rate and 33% blast rates are tremendous. He hits fastballs well too, and hasn’t had the sharp platoon splits this year that we saw from him in Oakland.
Updated - adding CJ Cron o1.5 TB (-120 DK) - match up with Quintana in Coors is too good to pass up at these odds!
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
We have some repeats from last night, but I promise you it’s because they pop in the model and I am not just “running it back” because they hit.
BAL/TOR OVER 9 runs (-110 DK)
The game got delayed last night at only eight total runs and I was nervous, but after it resumed, the Orioles pulled out a late-inning win and covered the total. See, I told you to never sleep on the O’s! Kremer is just a “meh” pitcher and the Jays are due to unload on someone. And I never trust Berrios to shut anyone down, either. I see another high-scoring one here.
MIN/LAD OVER 9 runs (-120 DK)
The Dodgers made mincemeat of Joe Ryan, and Sonny Gray is probably next. And the Minnesota bullpen is as shaky as ever. For the Twins, they only accounted for three runs last night, but get a spot starter here from L.A., which drives their projected run total up a bit.
SFG/SDP under 8.5 runs (-110 DK)
So this game finished at 11 total runs last night, but both teams had combined for only four runs going into the eighth inning as starters Alex Cobb and Joe Musgrove both pitched well. I think we see the same from Junis and Manaea here (I mean neither of them is AS good as those others) in terms of limiting the damage and the bullpens are not likely to melt down two nights in a row, right?
STL/COL over 11 runs (-110 DK)
Holy runs, Batman! The Rockies scored 12 in the first few innings and covered it last night by themselves. I’m not saying that happens again, but with two very average lefties (Quintana and Freeland) on the hill today against offenses that hit LHP well, this one has the potential to be a scoring fest, too.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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