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I'm still grinding MLB bets every day and if you're here reading this right now, I assume that you are, too! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 16th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Sean Manaea o5.5K vs. MIA (-115 DK)
Manaea is the dude who has tortured us before, but there is no avoiding this spot today as you can see I have him projected well over his total as Miami has been terrible against lefties this season and even worse in the most recent sample.
Zach Plesac o5.5K vs. DET (-120)
I hate relying on a guy with a sub-20% K rate to do anything, but this situation with the Tigers is getting silly. They’re up over 34% now in the most recent L14 sample and we saw Civale get 10 last night. Plesac just faced them and had 7 in 6+ innings. They’re simply so bad right now, that any half-decent pitcher stands a solid chance of whiffing 6 or more if they can last 5-6 innings.
Edward Cabrera o4.5K vs. SDP (-115)
The Miami youngster has now looked sharp in two straight starts since coming off the IL, piling up 8 and 6 strikeouts against the Cubs and Phillies, respectively. The Padres will be a tougher match-up, but there’s no reason to think a pitcher of his caliber can’t get five here. He’s good, and we won’t see another 4.5 on him this season.
Jeffrey Springs o4.5K vs. NYY (-125)
I thought we wouldn’t see another 4.5 on Springs this year either, but the haters are back! Springs is VERY GOOD and still isn’t getting enough respect, clearly, despite having 5+ in all but one start (remember he transitioned from the bullpen back in May) this season. He got six Yankees in six innings the first time he saw them.
Robbie Ray o7.5K vs. LAA (-135)
Robbie has 10 strikeouts against the Angels twice already this season. He’s in good form, and the Angels continue to be a team that we can target. I’m not overthinking this one, even if the projection is close.
Nestor Cortes o6.5K vs. TBR (+120)
Here is the “swing for the fences” play today. The Yankees’ crafty lefty has seen the Rays three times already and the match-up history does not bode well for him as he only got 5, 4, and 3 strikeouts in those starts.
But here’s the angle. Tampa’s lineup looks quite a bit different these days, and their projected lineup has 3-4 hitters with massive strikeout rates to lefties in it. The recent TB trend has them whiffing almost 35% of the time against LHP. Cortes just had a 10-strikeout game, and I think he has a big outing coming this time. I love the odds here, since the other props we are targeting all favor the book.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Matt Chapman o.5 TB (-155)
Paul DeJong o.5 TB (-155)
Parlay = +170
I had Chapman’s match-up with Dean Kremer circled from the last time I had recommended him and then he got rained out. The pitch profile for Chap is perfect, but they lowered his prop to just one base. So I am pairing him with DeJong, who was 2-3 off Rockies’ starter, Kyle Freeland, last week and has been hitting the ball well since he returned from injury.
Joey Meneses o1.5 TB (+145)
The books haven’t caught up yet on the Washington rookie, who already has five home runs and is hitting .385 in his first week two weeks in the majors. He has 2+ TB in six of his last seven and took Cubs’ pitcher Justin Steele deep the last time he saw them.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
COL/STL over 7.5 runs (-110 DK)
These two teams combined for 14 runs with these two exact pitchers going against each other last week in Coors. Now, I understand that Busch Stadium is much, much more pitcher-friendly, but both of these lineups can hit LHP. This total just seems really low, and my model has it closer to 9 runs.
CLE -1.5 (+100 DK)
I am riding this Cleveland hot streak. I know they dropped the second game of the doubleheader yesterday, but this team is just finding ways to win right now and should have a pretty sizable advantage in the starting pitching matchup as Garrett Hill and his 5+ xFIP goes against Plesac.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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