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With a huge 14-game main slate for DFS and all 30 MLB teams in action today, I am ready to place my bets, build my lineups, and enjoy some baseball! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, August 19th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
You’re going to think I am crazy, but I have 8 (yes EIGHT) spots circled today. Pick and choose as you’d like and I will explain a bit more about which spots are safer for parlays vs. riskier for straight bets.
Aaron Ashby o5.5K vs. CHC (-145 DK)
Ashby is such a talented pitcher, he just has to stop freaking walking guys. He’s been stuck on 5 strikeouts the last two outings, mainly because of pitch counts and his average length of start is what often keeps his K prop number down. But he’s pitching in the day game today and had his best performance of the season against this Cubs team back on May 30 when he whiffed 12 Cubbies. The Cubs don’t walk all that much vs lefties, so hopefully, they are swinging the bats today.
Kutter Crawford o3.5K vs. BAL (-175 DK)
Tyler Anderson o4.5K vs. MIA (-175 DK)
Here are two props that aren’t worth betting straight up, but paired together bring some nice odds. Since becoming a starter, Crawford has just one start (against a really GOOD Cleveland team) where he didn’t whiff four or more.
Anderson’s K numbers have been pretty ho-hum lately, but he’s getting quite possibly the best match-up on the slate against Miami who has whiffed 34% of the time against lefties over the last two weeks and is up around 28% on the season. He’s pitching 6-7 innings quite often, and he should get to 5 relatively easily here.
Jesus Luzardo o5.5K vs. LAD (-135 DK)
Staying in the same game, Luzardo has pitched pretty well in three August starts after returning from injury with 5, 6, and 6 strikeouts. It’s the Dodgers, so it’s scary, of course, but this is still a guy with elite strikeout stuff, an excellent SwStr%, and LA is vulnerable to lefties more than righties when it comes to Ks.
Okay, it’s time for the BIG DOGS!
Blake Snell o7.5K vs. WAS (-110 DK)
Snell has been unstoppable now for the last month. Normally, I avoid K props against Washington, but their K rate has jumped lately since the Soto trade and Snell just whiffed 10 of them in 6 innings last time out. He’s putting up big K numbers even in tough spots, and this number isn’t even juiced yet. I am in for 8 Snell strikeouts today, let’s do it.
Brady Singer o6.5K vs. TBR (-110 DK)
Another guy who is borderline when it comes to his projection, but I am on here is Singer. He got Tampa 12 times about a month ago and has proven this year that he’s not just a groundball pitcher, he can get strikeouts and just blanked the Dodgers with 7 of them in his last start. Good pitcher + good form + good match-up + good odds = great bet.
Kevin Gausman o6.5K vs. NYY (+110 DK)
Now we have two aces left who have tough matchups with the NY teams. Gausman is coming off a rocky start but has been darn good with strikeouts all year. He got the Yanks nine times way back in April but hasn’t seen them since. The Yankee bats are still struggling at the plate and their K rate is way up of late. I like Gausman to get 7 here and the Jays to win (more on that later)
Aaron Nola o6.5K vs. NYM (+110 DK)
Nola’s domination of the Mets continued last time out as he whiffed 8 over 8 innings of work, allowing only one run on four hits. He’s now punched out 8, 7, and 9 Mets in three meetings, so this has more to do with his history against this team than his projection. I love how Nola usually shows up big in big games and the plus odds put this one over the top for me.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
TOR ML (-105 DK)
The Blue Jays are slight road underdogs here and are coming off a big win last night in the Bronx. I give them a rather large edge in the pitching match-up here as Gausman is a good bit better than Taillon. And the Yankees’ cold bats on offense could continue to struggle against Gausman and his splitter.
ATL/HOU over 8.5 runs (-115 DK)
This one really pops in the model today, likely due to the surging offenses from both teams. Houston put up a crooked number yesterday, while Atlanta is only a few days removed from double-digit runs against the Mets. Kyle Wright and Lance McCullers Jr. are both decent pitchers, but they’ll both have their hands full here against two of the premiere offenses in baseball.
STL/ARI over 8.5 runs (-120 DK)
Speaking of offense, the Cardinals just hung 13 on the Rockies (not in Coors, in Busch Stadium) and have been scoring runs like crazy lately. They get a rookie lefty on the hill tonight for Arizona, which bodes well for the likes of Goldschmidt, Pujols, Arenado, and the gang. The Snakes have been much better with the bats in the second half, and I like their chances of scoring some runs off Mikolas, too. This one projects for around 10 runs, so we are definitely hitting the over here.
SDP -1.5 (-150 DK)
The Padres put up a stinker last night, managing only one run to back up Darvish. But I think they bounce back here against Espino and Snell dominates the Washington bats.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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