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If you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, August 26th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Joe Musgrove o5.5K vs. KC (-130 DK)
Musgrove at 5.5 is something I can never pass up really. Against a young KC lineup, I like his chances of getting six and this prop isn’t as juiced as I was expecting something closer to -150 or higher.
Joe Ryan o5.5K vs. SFG (+100 DK)
This one is probably the diciest of all my picks today as Ryan is a good, but not dominant pitcher facing an offense that is hard to project. But the Giants’ recent K trends vs. RHP are up and Ryan has cleared the 6k hurdle in five of his last six.
Cade Cavalli o4.5K vs. CIN (-160 DK)
Betting on a rookie in his debut carries some risk, but Cavalli comes highly touted from Triple-A and was striking out hitters at a 26% clip. Even with only a 5-inning projection, that still puts him over 5 strikeouts, and I like his chances against a struggling Reds lineup.
Spencer Strider o7.5 vs. STL (+120 FD)
Strider got 12 Cards earlier this year, and while St. Louis has been one of the better offenses in the league over the last month (and not striking out as much), this match-up still favors Strider as his K rate to righties is over 40% and St. Louis’s best hitters are all right-handed.
Justin Steele o5.5 vs. MIL (-125 FD)
You should know by now that lefties against the Brewers is a smash spot! Steele has 9 strikeouts each in his last two outings against the Brew Crew and his recent form is excellent. I was expecting this number to be 6.5 honestly and I might still bet it there if it moves again.
Bailey Falter o4.5 vs. PIT (-150 FD)
This line just came out, and it could easily move to 5.5 soon. Falter got 8 Pirates last month and is getting a chance to make another start here. We have to attack the Pirates, especially when we get a decent strikeout pitcher with a low number like this!
Still waiting for...
Tyler Anderson vs. Miami (I like the over on 5.5, that’s where I would expect it to open)
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
CLE ML (-115 DK)
Cleveland has been a great team to bet on this year and they’re only slight favorites here on the road against Seattle. They’re winning on the road over 50% of the time and winning as faves 65% of the time, too. I have to give them the starting pitching advantage here as Shane Bieber is just one tier up from Logan Gilbert (for now, Gilbert is young and definitely up-and-coming) and the Guardians bullpen has been lights-out with the best SIERA in baseball over the last month.
ATL ML (-145)
This is more juice than I wanted to pay for Atlanta, but I’ll take Spencer Strider over Jose Quintana any day of the week. Strider has a good history against the Cards and Atlanta has a “death to lefties” lineup they can roll out against Quintana here with Olson and MH2 as the only lefties in there (and Olson hits lefties well, too).
SFG/MIN under 8 runs (-115 DK)
Not too many totals pop in the model today, but this under interests me a lot. Both pitchers are underrated guys (Wood and Ryan) who aren’t likely to get blown up. And both offenses have been mediocre at best (both averaging fewer than 4 runs per game over the last month).
NYM over 4.5 runs (-145)
The Mets are in a great spot today against Chad Kuhl and the Rockies’ mediocre bullpen. They managed only three runs last night but left a lot of guys on base. I have them projected over six runs here based on their strong recent production and the plus match-up.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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