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If you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!
This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, August 29th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Carlos Rodon o6.5K vs. SDP (-140 DK)
Anytime we get a 30% projected K rate for an ace like Rodon, you have to lean towards the over, and Carlos already has a dominant outing (complete game, 12 strikeouts) against this Padres team back in July.
Brayan Bello o3.5K vs. MIN (-125 DK)
The Boston rookie had been shaky his first few starts but was also getting a tad unlucky too and hurting himself with walks. We saw him look very sharp against a good Toronto lineup in his last start, and I think he could be turning a corner. Four strikeouts for a guy with his stuff shouldn’t be all that difficult.
Frankie Montas o6.5K vs. LAA (+118 FD)
You can probably wait for this one on DraftKings to get it at 5.5, but it will be very juiced-up around -150, I’d guess. Frankie hasn’t been great with the Yanks, but this matchup has been great for pitchers all season and he did whiff 12 Angels earlier this year as a member of the Athletics.
]Jose Berrios to get a win (+115 DK)
I am not positive that he gets the six strikeouts he needs for his prop, but I like the way he’s pitched now in two straight starts (against pretty good teams) and I think the Toronto offense bounces back against the Cubs rookie to give him some run support.
Watch For: Corbin Burnes - once the Pirates officially announce a starter, we should get props for that game. Burnes has been shaky lately, so I am more interested in him at 6.5 or 7.5 than something crazy high like 8.5. I may lay off him entirely and just play him in DFS.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Nolan Arenado o1.5 TB (-115 DK)
Tyler O’Neill o1.5 TB (+105 DK)
The Cards get a matchup with veteran retread Chase Anderson today, who had a 6+ ERA last year and a 4.50 ERA at Triple-A this season. He’s historically been a reverse-splits pitcher, so I want the righties here (Goldy is always bettable, too, of course).
Tommy Pham o1.5 TB (-105)
Alex Verdugo o1.5 TB (+105)
The Red Sox offense has shown some signs of life lately, and Pham and Verdugo have been arguably their best hitters over the last month or so. Both guys have a bunch of multi-hit games recently and the speed/power combo we are looking for in total base props where we want doubles or home runs so we don’t have to sweat a second base hit.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
BOS ML (+100 DK)
If you didn’t guess it from my Bello prop and the Pham/Verdugo props, I like the Sox today. Dylan Bundy has been pretty lucky lately to get through five innings without getting blown up. He doesn’t miss bats and usually gives up some loud contact. We need Bello to pitch as he did in his last start, and this Red Sox offense to keep up their recent trend - both are viable outcomes.
STL/CIN over 9.5 runs (-105 DK)
This game is in Cincy, where balls leave the yard with great regularity. Chase Anderson is an HR-prone pitcher facing a good Cards lineup and Miles Mikolas is a decent, but fairly overrated (based on his surface stats) pitcher facing a pesky Reds lineup. My model has this one for 11+ runs today, so I am going to go over another already high total and trust the process.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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