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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another edition of Thunder Dan's Best MLB Bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 3rd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Zack Wheeler o6.5K vs. ATL (-102 FD)
The Zack attack has eight and 10 strikeouts in two previous meetings with the Bravos this season. He was back in form against the Pirates with eight in his last start, and I am leaning on him pretty hard today to get seven and lead the Phillies to a win. Atlanta loves to strike out, we just need Wheeler to pitch deep enough (he usually does) to get there.
Shohei Ohtani o8.5K vs. OAK (-110 DK)
I have no words here other than Ohtani is on another plane of existence right now and I would probably be betting on nine strikeouts against any team in the league, let alone the lowly Athletics. This is not scientific at all, I am just betting his over until he finally misses.
Martin Perez o5.5K vs. BAL (-102 FD)
Perez has been finding a way to hit his props, but the books have finally adjusted and bumped him up a bit. Baltimore is a great match-up for lefties, which boosts his projection a good bit. His 8.5% SwStr% still makes me nervous, but he’s been pitching 6-7 innings almost every time out and has 6+ in five of his last seven starts.
Parlay: Sandy Alcantara o20.5 outs + Julio Urias o17.5 outs (+155)
I can’t quite get there on these two at their K numbers, but I love their match-ups and I expect them to pitch well and deep into the game. Sandy needs to finish seven innings and Urias six in order for this to hit.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Francisco Lindor over 1.5 total bases (-110 DK)
Franky is on fire right now, with a HR in three of his last four games and 2+ total bases in five straight and seven of his last eight games. He’s facing Anibal Sanchez and a poor Nats bullpen, I think the Mets bounce back today after a rough one last night.
Jose Miranda over 1.5 total bases (-110)
If you haven’t noticed, this youngster can hit. His numbers against lefties this season are really good and his last month has been tremendous (.476 ISO vs. LHP). Tyler Alexander stinks.
Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Goldy is having an MVP-caliber season and has some of the best R vs. L splits of any hitter in baseball. He had two hits last night, including a homer, and has hit Cubs’ lefty Justin Steele well in previous match-ups (in a small sample size).
Note: Jurickson Profar TB prop isn’t up yet, but it has been plus money and he’s on an incredible tear right now. He had six hits in two games yesterday, running his multi-hit game streak to five.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
KC Royals +1.5 (-150 DK)
I really wanted to take the KC ML at plus odds, but their bullpen can’t be trusted and the White Sox bats finally looked good last night. This is a Brady Singer vs. Lance Lynn play for me, as Singer has looked tremendous in his last few starts and Lynn has been very hittable.
CHC/STL under 8 runs (-105 DK)
Same bet as yesterday and pretty solid odds here too. The Cards could crush Justin Steele, but he’s not been all that bad this season. And the Chicago offense is scuffling badly. Miles Mikolas is the real deal, he’s boring, but he should hold the Cubbies in check.
PHI ML (+115 DK)
Zack Wheeler is the dude and has performed well against the Braves this season. Meanwhile, his opponent Charlie Morton has really struggled against the Phillies and has finally taken a step back this season at the age of 75-years-old. The Braves deserve to be favored at home, I suppose, but the Phillies can hit and Wheeler has the stuff to hold the Bravo bats down.
TOR ML (-115 DK)
Please show up, Kikuchi! This guy has been maddening this season and we all know he has solid potential to be a really good pitcher. He dominated Tampa two starts ago, and this Rays’ lineup is looking pretty bleak these days. The Blue Jays’ offense didn’t do much yesterday, but they’ll see Jalen Beeks and Ryan Yarbrough today, two lefties who they should be able to do something against. Toronto is simply a much better club all around and should be more heavily favored here.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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