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It's your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I'm back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, July 13th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
We have so many spots today! I am even going to leave a few guys I really like (such as Bassitt) out today because I don’t want to overdo it. Let’s start with the lower numbers and work our way up.
Justin Steele o4.5 vs. BAL (-145 FD)
Baltimore is a great spot to attack with lefties, if you remember we crushed that Sandoval bet last week. Steele has been a bit inconsistent this year, but this is a guy with eight, nine, nine, and 10 strikeout games in his log. Two of those were in his most recent three starts. I see him getting five or more relatively easy here.
Josiah Gray o5.5 vs. SEA (+100)
Gray is a guy who can get torched for a few homers and still get there, and we’ve also seen him totally dominate teams, too. I hope he continues to throw his curveball more and his fastball less, as he’s getting great results. He’s cleared 6+ in five of his last six and is trending up this year. I bet him at 4.5 last night, knowing he’d be 5.5 today, but I still want to attack him here at good odds.
Joe Musgrove o5.5 vs. COL (+125)
Joe routinely gets his six strikeouts per game (only three starts all season under six), so I care zero licks about this being in Coors Field. He struck out the Rox eight times in his first meeting with them. We are getting a solid discount here based on the park factor alone, this line will move because bettors know that MusGOAT is a print factory for 6+ strikeouts.
Luis Severino o6.5 vs. CIN (+110 DK)
You’re darn right we are going after the Reds again after Cole whiffed them 11 times last night and raised their L14 K rate vs. RHP to 31%!!! Sevvy has those strikeouts in him, and the fact he hasn’t done it lately doesn’t bother me too much, it’s just helping us get better odds on a great pitcher in an awesome spot.
Shohei Ohtani o6.5 vs. HOU (-160 DK)
MORE ACES! Ohtani is on another planet right now, and these odds reflect just confident the public is in seven strikeouts. Houston is always a tough matchup, but no Yordan Alvarez in the lineups helps a lot, and let’s not forget Ohtani got them for 12 earlier this year or that he has three straight starts in double digits. 15% SwStr% for Ohtani is so impressive.
Cristian Javier o7.5 (+110 DK)
At some point will he turn into a pumpkin, or is Javier really this good? He certainly got smacked around a little by KC in his last start, but still got seven strikeouts. I tried to maneuver his projection DOWN and he still ended up around nine. At these odds, I have to go after the Angels with a guy with his ability.
Shane McClanahan o7.5 (-110 DK)
You know I am in on Shane Mac to get eight. Boston even has an L14 trend up from their usual K rate, giving me even a little more confidence here. This guy is the Cy Young winner, I am convinced, he’s so good.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
NYY -1.5 (-155 DK)
We are going right back to the Yankees! Mike Minor is a shell of his former self and Severino is a beast. Everything favors the Yanks here and we caught our bad beat last night. Judge will be back in the lineup and those Yankee bats should bounce back.
CHW ML (-110 DK)
How many times can the White Sox hurt me? The Guardians beat up on Lance Lynn but were shut down by Cease last night. Giolito has been trending up lately and is a far better pitcher than Aaron Civale. Everything favors the Sox here, they just need to show up and play like we know they’re capable of playing.
SEA/WAS F5 under 5 runs (-120 DK)
The odds barely moved at all since yesterday, so I am going right back to this bet. I really do think Gray and Flexen are being a bit disrespected here with this line, and as I said yesterday - I am just not interested in trusting the Washington bullpen even if Gray pitches well.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Have a great weekend and thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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