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Hey there, it's your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I'm back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, July 25th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Less to like here today and a few spots that might pop on the chart that I can’t get fully on board with for bets based on odds or other factors.
Nick Lodolo o6.5K vs. MIA (+125 DK)
I am going to chase the upside of the few actual decent strikeout pitchers on this slate. Lodolo had a rough start last time out, but still struck out five in two innings. This is a smash spot for him against a struggling Miami team with a high K% against LHP.
JT Brubaker o5.5K vs. CHC (+100 DK)
Brubaker has been pretty solid lately for the Bucs, going for six strikeouts or more in four straight. He has 5 and 10 in his two match-ups with Chicago so far, but the good recent form and these solid odds (and lack of other decent options) have me really interested here.
Sean Manaea o17.5 total outs vs. DET (-170 DK)
Total outs props are tricky and the best ones usually get juiced up quickly. I usually pair two of them together for better odds, but I don’t see another good one out right now that I trust. Manaea has pitched six innings in four of his last five starts, and you’d have to think he’s in a good position to get there again here against Detroit.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
No promises that I can continue to do these every day, but with a light pitching slate, let’s attack some hitters. These are all total bases props on DraftKings.
Freddie Freeman o1.5 TB (-120 DK)
Talk about red hot! Freeman has two total bases or more in nine of his last 10 games. He’s facing Paolo Espino today, a mediocre RHP, and the abysmal Washington bullpen.
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 TB (-120 DK)
Alvarez rested yesterday, so I hope he’s good to go tonight. It was just a sore hand, so hopefully, it’s nothing serious. He demolishes RHP and is facing arguably the worst starter on the slate (Oller) who is backed by a poor Oakland bullpen.
Hunter Renfroe o1.5 TB (+115)
Renfroe is streaking right now, too. He has hit this number in five straight games, including three straight games with a HR and multiple hits. He has great splits against lefties and gets Kyle Freeland today, as well as the Rockies bullpen. I expect a lot of offense in that game, and for Renfroe to barrel us a double or a HR.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-145 DK)
The Dodgers are a ridiculous -300 on the money line, and please don’t bet that! L.A. is rolling right now, winning nine of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Nats are in full tank mode and shopping multiple veterans. This game shouldn’t be close, and there is still some value on the run line here (I wouldn’t bet it if it keeps moving up too much).
Cincinnati Reds ML (-130 DK)
The Reds are playing pretty well right now and they have the pitching advantage here with the exciting rookie Lodolo going against the disappointing lefty Trevor Rogers. Miami’s offense has been much colder than the Reds, so I will side with the home team here.
SF Giants over 4.5 runs (-125 DK)
Houston Astros over 4.5 runs (-135 DK)
The Giants have a lineup full of RHH to throw at lefty Logan Gilbert, and my model predicts them to clear five runs today against the Snakes. The Astros offense has a massive mismatch against Adam Oller and the Oakland bullpen, too.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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