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It's Friday and you know what that means, right? A huge slate of baseball games for us to wager on! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, July 29th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Alek Manoah o5.5K vs. DET (-150 DK)
Manoah has 6+ in three straight and in five of his last six. There is a slight concern here that Detroit rolls out 6-7 lefties and his splits are pretty severe with a much lower K rate to lefties, but he’s started to correct that a little lately. The lefties that project in the Det lineup have pretty high K rates, too, so I’m not going to fret over it.
Brandon Woodruff o6.5K vs. BOS (-145)
Woody is my favorite of the big-time aces. Boston is reeling right now and their L14 K rate is up near 30%. Woody bounced back nicely in his last start and I think he can punch out 7+. He’s the opposite of Manoah, with a 40% K rate to lefties and only 22% against RHP, so five lefties in the Boston lineup would be a good thing.
Jeffrey Springs o4.5K vs. CLE (-115 DK)
I am going out on a limb with Springs here, and I wanted at least one guy close to even money. DK is pretty far off from FD here, who has already moved Springs to 5.5 at +115. Springs wasn’t sharp in his first start back from the IL, but if he pitches his usual 5-6 innings today, I think he gets 5. He has 5+ in every start this season since he moved into the rotation and CLE has a much higher K rate against LHP (we rarely attack them with RHP).
Bailey Falter o4.5K vs. PIT (-110 DK)
I almost forget Falter! We have to pick on the Pirates almost daily, and Falter is no exception. We get a nice low number on him, and he's gone for 5+ in three straight starts. The PIT K% against LHP is massive, we just need Falter to get five and last 4-5 innings, and I think he does.
Close, but no cigar…(some spots I really want to bet, but I’m hanging back for now)
Cole o8.5 (+110), Perez o5.5 (+100), Sandoval o5.5 (-130), Bassitt o5.5 (-140)
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
TEX ML (-105 DK)
Martin Perez is the dude, at this point in the season I think we just have to admit that. And as much as I wanted Patrick Sandoval to be a thing this year, he’s just pretty average and walks way too many guys. The Angels’ offense still sucks, as they were shut out last night again, leaving Ohtani on the hook for a loss despite 11 strikeouts.
MIN ML (-105 DK)
This pick is based on a few things. I like Joe Ryan and I hate Blake Snell. Also, the Padres just seem super shaky every night and I don’t think they deserve to be the favorites here when Minnesota’s offense has been better.
MIL -1.5 (+100)
The Brewers should roll tonight, not only do they have an ace on the hill in Woodruff, but they are facing rookie Brayan Bello who has really struggled through his first three MLB starts. I have the Brewers projected as bigger favorites than both the Yanks and Blue Jays (who are both -300!)
OAK/CHW over 8 runs (-115)
Kaprielian stinks and Lance Lynn has been super shaky, so I was surprised this line didn’t open up at 8.5 or 9 runs. I’ll take the over here, as I have this one projected close to 10 runs.
Team Totals
NYY o5.5 (+100)
MIL o5.5 (+115)
LAD o6.5 (-130)
Yes, these are all high numbers, but these three teams have the highest run projections in my model and we are getting plus odds on the Yankees and Brewers to score 6 runs off two really bad starters and bullpens. The Dodgers scored 13 in Coors last night and are out for revenge against Chad Kuhl, who blanked them (somehow miraculously) earlier in the year.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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