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It's the freakin' weekend and time for plenty of day baseball today! If you are just joining me for the first time today, I'm sharing some of my favorite prop bets, sides, and totals with you for tonight's games here at RotoBaller.
Last week, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Saturday, July 9th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Clayton Kershaw o6.5 vs. CHC (+115 DK)
The only thing stopping Kershaw here would be if he gets lifted early or something, but we saw 7 strong innings from him against the Padres last time with 8 whiffs. It’s the same spot we loved with Anderson yesterday, but a significantly better pitcher. Solid odds here on DK, I kind of expect them to move in our favor.
Patrick Sandoval o4.5 vs. BAL (-170 DK)
This line will move in an hour or two to 5.5, and it’s bettable there as you can see I like Sandy for 6+ today. Detmers dominated the Orioles last night and we know lefties can cause them fits. Just don’t walk too many dudes, Sandy, we know you have great stuff!
Johnny Cueto o4.5 vs. DET (-135 DK)
Cueto is having a solid year in Chicago, and while he’s retooled his arsenal around getting groundballs, he’s still had some decent strikeout games with 5+ in 7 of 10 starts. Detroit is a good spot to attack and this number is low.
Triston McKenzie o4.5 vs. KCR (-120 DK)
McKenzie has been a bright spot for Cleveland this year, even in games where he’s been touched up for runs he has still gotten his strikeouts. He’s coming off a 7-inning shutout of the Yankees with 7 strikeouts and has 5+ in his last five straight. The Royals are a team we can target for strikeouts with their new-look, younger lineup.
SITUATION TO MONITOR: Brandon Woodruff vs. PIT - FanDuel has him o7.5 right now and while he got 8 Buccos in his last start, I am going to wait to see if he opens at 6.5 on DK, and if he does, I will smash that instead.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
I am on some run lines and totals today, but we went 3-0 on money lines yesterday!
MIL -1.5 (-120 DK)
Woodruff on the bump against Zach Thompson, yeah that’s a huge advantage for the Brew Crew, who have been pretty good at home this year. Their offense is a bit hit and miss (pun intended), but they have an elite starter and bullpen going in their favor.
ATL -1.5 (-130 DK)
The Braves are rolling right now and big favorites again tonight against the Nats. Kyle Wright is good, Patrick Corbin is…NOT. The biggest difference is the offenses here as the Braves are red hot and the Nats have been trending down in a big way.
NYY/BOS o9.5 (+100 DK)
We saw a bunch of offense last night, and I am not sure why we wouldn’t expect that again in a great park for hitting and two pretty “meh” pitchers on the hill in Monty and Crawford.
COL/ARI o9 (-110)
I am definitely mad at myself for not trusting the model yesterday. I got burned on this game Thursday night and ignored it yesterday, only to see it go over. This game is the highest-rated total in the model today and it’s easy to see why we expect offense with two mediocre lefties on the hill, two offenses that can hit LHP, and two poor bullpens.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Have a great weekend and thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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