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In fantasy football, there are "sleepers," or players we expect to outproduce their average draft position (ADP), and then there are "deep sleepers." These deep sleepers aren't on many people's radar. They may be coming off of a down season or they may find themselves in a different situation from a season ago. Either way, they're not getting enough attention and have an opportunity to far outproduce their ADP.
In this article, we'll focus on the tight end position. Whether it's an ambiguous situation, an upgrade at quarterback or head coach, or climbing up the depth chart, each of the three guys listed below has a chance to outproduce their ADP this season. And all three have one thing in common -- they all have a legitimate chance to be the second option in their respective teams' passing game. Here are your tight end deep draft sleepers for 2022.
Check out early RB sleepers, early WR sleepers, and deep Superflex QB sleepers when you're done here.
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: TE33
The 2022 offseason has been good for Mo Alie-Cox's (MAC) fantasy value. Jack Doyle retired after nine seasons with the Colts and MAC was handed a generous three-year, $18 million contract extension with $8.2 million guaranteed. Indianapolis did spend a third-round pick on Jelani Woods out of Virginia, but rookie tight ends typically don't see the field very much their first season. Just ask Colts second-year tight end Kylen Granson, who saw just 15 total targets as a rookie and played on fewer than 25% of the snaps in 13 of 17 games.
So now Alie-Cox steps into a much more prominent role as the lead tight end of the bunch. He hasn't historically been a steady producer, but that could change in 2022 for a multitude of reasons. First, it's possible he's Matt Ryan's second-favorite target in the passing game by default. After Michael Pittman Jr., the wide receiver depth chart is as follows: Parris Campbell (missed 34 games in three seasons), Alec Pierce (rookie), Keke Coutee (has only played 25 of 65 games in four seasons), Dezmon Patmon (four career targets), and Mike Strachan (three career targets). Second, Matt Ryan is now the quarterback in Indianapolis, and he has a history of targeting his tight ends. From Kyle Pitts to Austin Hooper, all the way back to Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has a knack for getting the ball into his tight end's hands. Here's a tweet from back in 2020 to prove it:
Frank Reich is no stranger to involving his tight ends in the passing game either. Zach Ertz was a top-five tight end for multiple seasons in Philadelphia, while Eric Ebron had a career year in 2018 with a career-high 13 touchdowns on a career-high 110 targets.
At 6'4" with an almost 36" arm length (100th percentile), Alie-Cox found himself as one of the Colts' best weapons in the red zone last season. He turned 10 red zone targets into four touchdowns (40%). If he sees even 15 red zone targets in a full-time role in 2022, a 40% conversion rate would give him six touchdowns on the season. Add to the equation MAC's fourth-highest aDOT amongst all tight ends (9.4), his 13.2 yards per reception, and number one overall juke rating (25%) a season ago, and there's a lot to like about his potential this season as the number one tight end in a Matt Ryan-led offense. Don't sleep on Mo Alie-Cox.
Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans
ADP: TE24
Hooper finds himself with a fresh start after two disappointing years in Cleveland where he didn't eclipse 50 receptions or 450 yards in either season. Compare that to his 2018 and 2019 seasons in Atlanta where he finished as the TE8 and TE3, respectively, on a per-game basis. And that was with sharing the field with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Now in Tennessee, Hooper looks to become what he once was a few years ago, a fantasy football TE1. Here's Ryan Tannehill on their early chemistry:
So Hooper is working on timing routes with his new quarterback, while rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks has battled asthma and conditioning issues at minicamp and veteran wide receiver Robert Woods is coming back from a torn ACL. All three guys are brand new to the organization, but it's Hooper who's been putting in the extra work (thus far) with Tannehill.
Hooper went from averaging 6.4 targets per game in 2018 and 2019 with the Falcons to just 4.5 targets per game in 2020 and 2021 with the Browns. The difference - in Cleveland he shared the workload with both David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. In Atlanta, he was the guy. His routes run per game went from 27.7 to just 19.5. With A.J. Brown now in Philly and Julio Jones a free agent, there are so many vacated targets up for grabs in Tennessee. Why not put your trust in the guy that's putting in extra work early and often with his new quarterback throughout the offseason?
He may not be your elite tight end option, but there are a few good reasons to like Austin Hooper as a dark-horse top-15 option this season.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: TE23
Engram, like Hooper, finds himself on a new team in a completely different environment. After five seasons with the New York Giants, Engram now finds himself in Jacksonville after signing a one-year, fully guaranteed $9 million contract with the Jaguars.
The last two seasons in New York have been a blur for all involved, and that includes Engram. He scored just five total touchdowns and averaged 5.9 targets per game over that stretch compared to 7.8 targets per game in 31 fully healthy games between 2017 and 2019. Recall, Engram finished as a top-seven tight end on a per-game basis his first three seasons in the NFL. The talent is there, but the situation wasn't with the lackluster coaching and play-calling from head coach Joe Judge and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett in 2020 and 2021.
But things are different now, and we almost need to erase what happened the last two seasons in order to properly project Engram's output in 2022. He's now playing with what is supposed to be one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Trevor Lawrence and for a head coach that prioritizes pass-catching tight ends in Doug Pederson. From 2016 to 2020, Zach Ertz averaged 8.3 targets per game on a Pederson-coached Eagles team. He finished as a top-five tight end in four of those five seasons.
He's got the workout metrics (97th percentile speed, 87th percentile burst, 91st percentile agility, and 93rd percentile catch radius per PlayerProfiler), the past performance (TE7 or better between 2017 and 2019), and now the ambiguous situation we look for when identifying breakout players. There's a chance that between Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones Jr., and Zay Jones, Engram could find himself as a preferred option in the passing game. In fact, Jags beat writer John Shipley believes he could really break out.
This guy can play...
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