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Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write primarily MLB and NFL on Rotoballer but I play a lot of NHL DFS and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, January 29th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/29/22
We have four games starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, one at 8 p.m. Eastern Time, and one at 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before lock. Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from the goalie position!
NHL DFS Goalies
Frederik Andersen - DK $8.4K || FD $8.1K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
He is the most expensive goalie on DraftKings but the 4th most expensive on FanDuel. In general, goalie pricing is pretty tight in that I generally will go for the top or in a GPP, find the cheapest goalie that is favored to win. New Jersey is implied for 2.4 goals, tied for the lowest on the slate. Andersen is 12-1-0 in his last 13 games and is on a five-game winning streak. In a cash game, he is the goalie I am looking for.
Edit: Raanta was first off in the morning skate and is likely to start. If he does start, I don't mind Raanta but would rather start Markstrom over him.
In GPPs, I build my primary stack first, then see which goalie is likely to fit with a cheaper secondary stack. It will cause me to likely pivot to one of the options below.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.1K || FD $8.4K), Mrazek (DK $7.4K || FD $8.5K)
NHL DFS Centers
Auston Matthews - DK $9.2K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
If looking to spend up at C, flip a coin between Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid tonight. If looking to roster Evander Kane then McDavid should be rostered for some correlation. Matthews is more expensive on DraftKings but less expensive on FanDuel. McDavid, in my opinion, often goes over-owned so I am looking at Matthews as my spend-up C tonight if I have the budget to do it and want to get different from the field. Matthews has just as much upside as McDavid does and Toronto is implied for 3.8 goals tonight as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Matthews ends up the highest-scoring fantasy player on the slate tonight.
Tage Thompson - DK $5.9K || FD $5.7K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
If looking for more of a value play, Tage Thompson is my favorite option tonight. Buffalo is bad, however, they are playing Arizona and are implied for three goals. He is more of a boom-or-bust type of play; he has 30+ fantasy point upside and he also has a floor of 1.5 points. He has 14 goals and 14 assists in 39 games and he averages 3.12 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $9.0K || FD $10.4K), Draisaitl (DK $8.4K || FD $10.1K), Stamkos (DK $7.3K || FD $8.6K), Suzuki (DK $4.3K || FD $5.2K)
NHL DFS Wings
Alex Tuch - DK $5.9K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
I like both Tuch as a standalone winger and also paired with Tage Thompson here for some top-line, top power-play correlation against one of the worst teams in the NHL in Arizona. Tuch has three goals and seven assists in 10 games played, making him a one-point per game player. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in six of the 10 games he has played this season. He doesn't have huge upside to take down a GPP but he is a player that is likely to score a point and take a couple of shots on goal (he averages 2.2/game).
Evander Kane - DK $2.5K || FD $4.5K
Opponent -Montreal Canadiens
Evander Kane has had a lot of off the ice controversy but at the end of the day, he is one of the better scoring wings in the NHL He is a 20-30 goal and 20-30 assist player over the course of a full season. He is minimum priced, playing alongside Connor McDavid and the Oilers are implied for 4.1 goals tonight. He is easily the best value play on the board if looking for a punt play. If you do roster him, you probably should roster McDavid over Matthews at Center.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Keller (DK $4.8K || FD $6.9k), Bratt (DK $5.1K || FD $6.8K), Hyman (DK $4.3K || FD $5.5K), anyone on the Top 2 lines on Toronto, Edmonton. Not a lot on the high end, so take a shot-taker on a favored team you can afford.
NHL DFS Defensemen
Victor Hedmen - DK $7.5K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Victor Hedman is the primary spend-up tonight at defense for me. This should be a high-scoring game, Hedmen takes more shots when Kucherov is out of the lineup. Last game he had three shots on goal. He has 30+ point upside and should provide a nice floor.
Shayne Gostisbehere- DK $4.5K || FD $6.0K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Shayne Gostisbehere is on a three-game point streak, against Boston-Pittsburgh-New York Rangers. Going against Buffalo should make for a potential big game for him. If he scores a goal, he will score double-digit fantasy points and boost your GPP squad. He is on the first power play and pretty inexpensive, especially on DraftKings.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nurse (DK $6.2K || FD $6.4K), Rielly (DK $5.4K || FD $6.8K), Theodore (DK $6.4K || FD $6.6K), Petry (DK $3.6K || FD $4.0K), Subban (DK $3.1K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On this six-game slate, we have seven teams that are implied for three or more goals. The teams with the highest implied totals are Carolina (4.3), Edmonton (4.1), and Toronto (3.8). The teams with the lowest implied totals with 2.4 are Vancouver, Detroit, and New Jersey.
This will come at no surprise, as I am a single entry and 3 max type of a player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Calgary 1/PP1: Implied for 3.8 goals, is the latest game of the slate, and I am hoping goes under-owned on the slate.
Buffalo 1/PP1: Implied for 3.0 goals, has Power Play correlation, and I could see them winning the game potentially. From above, I love some of the pieces and I am hoping they are under-owned as well because they are a "bad team" and people don't like to play bad teams.
Carolina 2/PP1: I feel like whenever I go to Carolina, they disappoint me. But they are implied for 4.3 goals tonight and two of the three forwards are on the top power play. One could also do a PP1 stack with the forwards and get exposure to the top two lines.
I am fading Edmonton. They are going to be over-owned in my opinion as Evander Kane is minimum priced.
