There were a lot of ups and downs on the 2015 season for Reds’ fans. The positives: they hosted the All-Star Game, Todd Frazier won the Home Run Derby, and Joey Votto looked like an MVP again. The negatives: everything else. One could argue the Reds should have traded players like Frazier, Chapman, and Bruce at the deadline as they would have been able to get more value in return for those players.
As it is however, the future is very bright for the Reds. Though I’m sure they would have liked to receive more talent for Frazier and Chapman, right now their farm system is full of talent and should be ready to contribute in the majors as early as the next two seasons. Though the Reds don’t have any elite prospects, their once desolated farm system now appears to have a considerable amount of depth that should make them a contender very soon.
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Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Dynasty Prospects
These are the top ten prospects for the Cincinnati Reds in terms of fantasy production for fantasy owners in the next few seasons.
1. Jesse Winker (OF, AA)
Stats: 526 PA, .282/.390/.433, 13 HR, 8 SB, 14.1% BB rate, 15.8% K rate
ETA: 2017
Often drawing comparisons to Joey Votto, Jesse Winker has had some lofty expectations placed on him from the moment he was taken with the 49th overall pick in the 2012 draft and it looks like he is close to debuting for his team. Scouts have talked often about the potential power that he has and how he could eventually be a 25+ home run threat, but Winker’s brightest asset is his well-above discipline and approach to the plate. Winker draws comparisons to Votto not because scouts believe he has the same power that Votto possesses (because he does not have that much power), but rather because Winker has proven himself to be an on-base machine. Playing in hitter friendly Great American Ballpark likely in the two spot right in front of the heart of the Reds’ order, Winker should be expected to contribute regularly for his team. As a low risk/high reward player, Winker is extremely valuable in dynasty leagues and should be owned in all leagues.
2. Robert Stephenson (SP, AAA)
Stats: 55.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 8.25 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9
ETA: 2016
The development of Robert Stephenson has been a long and trying process, but it looks like Stephenson is about to break out into the majors. There are few pitchers with a repertoire as diverse and lethal as Stephenson’s in the minors. He possesses an upper-90s fastball that often touches the 100s, a curveball that at times was considered to be one of the best in the minors (it has taken some steps back since then), and a changeup that is considered to be a well-above average pitch. The issue with Stephenson is command. Since his first two seasons of professional ball, Stephenson has yet to walk fewer than 4.25 batters per nine innings in a single season. His control could prevent him from reaching star status, but his stuff should ensure that he remains at least as a bottom of the rotation starter. If he can ever reign in his control, Stephenson has a chance to be a top of the rotation starter and that alone makes him worth owning in dynasty leagues.
3. Tyler Stephenson (C, R)
Stats: 219 PA, .268/.352/.361, 1 HR, 0 SB, 10.0% BB rate, 19.2% K rate
ETA: 2019
For the first time since 2013 and only the second time since 2010, the Reds used their first pick in the draft to take a bat. Their pick: 18-year-old, offense-first catcher from high school named Tyler Stephenson. Scouts rave about his bat, comparing him to Orioles catcher Matt Wieters because of his size, hitting capabilities, and arm strength. The question that has to be at least semi-concerning for dynasty owners is whether or not he will need a change of position. Though a move to the outfield would certainly hurt his value, Stephenson is the type of bat that should be considered a safe own in dynasty leagues and the fact that he is likely to remain at catcher should be a thrilling thought for owners.
4. Jose Peraza (2B, MLB)
Stats: (from ATL AAA) 427 PA, .294/.318/.379, 3 HR, 26 SB, 3.5% BB rate, 8.2% K rate
ETA: 2016
After finally landing with his third team in one year, Jose Peraza appears to have found a home for the foreseeable future. Viewed by many to be the heir to second base once Brandon Phillips is no longer with the team, Peraza provides fantasy owners with quite a bit to like coming from a weak offensive position. Though he lacks the patience to take walks, he avoids striking out and makes enough contact with the ball to let his speed help him reach base. The most promising attribute with Peraza of course is his elite base-stealing capabilities which should help him steal 30+ bases per season given a full season of playing time. With a lack of truly great second-base prospects in the minors, Peraza makes himself worthy of owning even given the risk that his bat may play about as well as Billy Hamilton’s in the majors.
5. Cody Reed (SP, AA)
Stats: 49.2 IP, 2.17 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 10.87 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9
ETA: 2017
The Johnny Cueto deal sent to the Reds three talented left-handed pitchers, but I’m sure no one at the time guessed that Cody Reed might be the most valuable. Unheralded until he joined Cincinnati, Reed’s rotation is the kind of stuff that one would expect to see out of an ace. The 22-year-old southpaw has a mid-90s fastball, a lethal slider, and a changeup that gives him a third above-average pitch. His control has appeared to be an issue in the past, but it looks like that could be a thing of the past. Reed could be ready for the majors as early as next year and has the upside of a top of the rotation starter which makes him a must own pitcher in dynasty leagues.
6. Alex Blandino (2B, AA)
Stats: 138 PA, .235/.350/.374, 3 HR, 2 SB, 13.0% BB rate, 15.2% K rate
ETA: 2017
If Jose Peraza is not the future at second base for the Reds, it will probably be Alex Blandino. Taken with the 29th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Blandino does not have the speed of Peraza, in fact, Blandino should not be expected to contribute any more than 10 stolen bases per year. But where Blandino does exceed Peraza in skill level is overall talent as a hitter. Some scouts see him eventually developing enough power to hit 15+ home runs per season while batting somewhere above .270. With his pure bat, he is worth owning in all dynasty leagues with the expectation that he will be in the majors by 2017.
7. Amir Garrett (SP, A+)
Stats: 140.1 IP, 2.44 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 8.53 K/9, 3.53 BB/9, 0.26 HR/9
ETA: 2018
Now 23, it took Amir Garrett a long time to put his name out there with some of the other top pitching prospects, but now Garrett has solidified himself amongst the other great left-handed pitching prospects in the minors. Much like with Robert Stephenson, the stuff and athleticism has never been into question. The six foot five lefty possesses a dominant mid-90s fastball and an above-average slider and changeup. Where Garrett required time to develop was in regards to his command which up until last year had been a bit of an issue for him. Now Garrett projects to be at best a middle of the rotation arm and at worst a dominant arm in the bullpen. Two years ago, I would have said owning Garrett is a high risk/low reward player, but now Garrett appears to be a medium risk/medium reward pitcher worth owning in all dynasty leagues.
8. Nick Travieso (SP, A+)
Stats: 93.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 7.33 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9
ETA: 2017
It took two years for Nick Travieso to begin showing the promise that prompted the Reds to draft him with the 14th overall pick back in 2012, but it looks like their patience may pay off. Travieso has now put together back-to-back sub-3.10 ERA campaigns and could be on the fast-track to the majors. Outside of his mid-90s fastball which grades out as a well-above average pitch, his slider and changeup leave a lot to be desired, but he has shown improvements with his secondary pitches and could make both of them at least above-average pitches. His command has always been sharp which helps establish a relatively comfortable safety net for Travieso as a back of the rotation starter. He is by no means a must-own player, but with Travieso’s low risk/medium reward status, dynasty owners could do worse than stashing him.
9. John Lamb (SP, MLB)
Stats: 49.2 IP, 5.80 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 10.51 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9
ETA: 2016
Though his 5.80 ERA in 49.2 innings is absolutely terrifying, John Lamb showed promise in other peripheral numbers. His SIERA of 3.56 and xFIP of 3.73 showed that his ERA may not have accurately reflected his performance in 2015. Though he no longer possesses the elite stuff that made him a top prospect prior to Tommy John surgery, his fastball still sits in the low-90s and he possesses three average secondary pitches (cutter, curveball, and changeup). Though his command can waver at times, he still looks poised at least to be a middle of the rotation starter for the Reds as soon as he returns from offseason back surgery. John Lamb has some upside even if he isn’t the ace prospect he once was which should still make him worth owning in dynasty owners.
10. Scott Schebler (OF, MLB)
Stats: (from AAA) 485 PA, .241/.322/.410, 13 HR, 15 SB, 8.2% BB rate, 19.2% K rate
ETA: 2016
Scott Schebler has put up better numbers in his Minor League career than scouts would have you believe. Many question whether or not he will ever be able to hit for a decent average in the majors, but he enough power and speed to at least present moderate value to dynasty owners. He could be counted on for a .230 batting average with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He is by no means a must own, but dynasty owners looking for outfield depth could go with Schebler who will likely be platooning in left this year for the Reds with Adam Duvall.
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