RADIO
This baseball season has been an absolute roller coaster with the offensive environment going through its ups and downs and the game suffering from injuries to several potent players. Add Bryce Harper to the latest list of superstars to be bit by the injury bug, which brings up a very important fact: injuries are easily the worst part of sports.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's FIP projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
With Monday being the Fourth of July, more teams are playing on Monday than usual, leading to an abundance of teams with several games. Then you add in multiple double-headers, and the frequency of games only increases. Simply from an opportunity standpoint, there should theoretically be a lot of streaming options.
Ah, if only it were that simple; teams such as the Dodgers, White Sox, Braves, Mets, Pirates, and Rockies don't have the streaming options we'd ideally be looking for. Thus, we have to squint a little harder to search for teams where the quality of matchup and the productiveness of the player match up, to the point you may need to put on your glasses. Alas, with the hype of our extra eyes, there are plenty of interesting hitter streamers available. So who is in a position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
49% rostered
Am I cheating here? Potentially. That being said, Joey Votto is technically only 49% rostered on Yahoo leagues, making him eligible for this list. At the end of the day, when you get a chance to take about Joey Votto, you do so.
Just when the legendary Votto appeared to be on the decline, he inexplicably had a renaissance season at age 37, posting a 140 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) with an absurd .297 isolated power (ISO), including a doing second-half performance (165 wRC+, .383 ISO). Consequently, there was optimism he'd be able to carry that over to this season. Instead, he struggled about as much as one could have imagined, hitting for a 30 wRC+ and .122/.278/.135 slash line over the first month of the season. With him then going on the COVID-19 list, it was reasonable to assume age had finally got the best of him.
Of course, this is Joey Votto we're talking about – nothing is supposed to make sense. Since returning from the COVID-19 list, it's been back to normal for the on-base machine:
For context, since returning from the COVID-19 list, Votto has a 138 wRC+, is hitting essentially half of his batted balls 95 MPH or harder, and has also rebounded for a 13.7% barrel rate. In other words, he's essentially back to performing at the level he was supposed to at the beginning of the season. So, what changed? As it turns out, Votto was experimenting with a new "hockey-stick" style bat to start the year, but it didn't suit well for him, so he reverted to his old bat when he came back. Baseball is a game about comfort and repetition, and a change like that isn't always easy to make. Votto realized this, and he's now back in full force.
The Reds not only play eight games this week, but all of them are at home. That speaks to a lot of runs being scored, giving Votto the home run + RBI combination to make him valuable in fantasy leagues of all formats. Should he somehow be available on the waiver wire, do not think twice. Cooperstown will be calling soon, but for now, Votto will settle with continuing to be one of the best at what he does.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
42% rostered
Players who openly demonstrate their joy for the game are what the game of baseball needs more of. That's right folks; at the end of the day, baseball is a game, and games are supposed to be fun. I mean, how can your enjoyment of a baseball game not go up after seeing Brandon Nimmo consistently, smiling from cheek to cheek, playing with a type of energy that is evidently contagious.
Sadly, we don't have points per smile in fantasy baseball. Meanwhile, for those who play in standard category leagues, Nimmo's lack of stolen bases or elite power hurts his value, even if his on-base ability and stellar defense make him a fantastic player. That being said, Nimmo's skillset continues to evolve, which is chaining the narrative around him.
In 2019, Nimmo struck out 28% of the time. Now? That rate is down to 16.6%, backed up by a career-low 24.5% called strike + whiff rate (CSW%). He's making more contact than ever and is doing mainly via batted-ball trajectories (flare/burners) that lead to a higher batting average. Nevertheless, this hasn't gotten in the way of his power, as his 7.6% barrel rate is the highest of his career for a full season, and is right in line with the league average. Add it together, and you have a hitter who can hit for average, get on base, and produce fine power numbers. It's a skill set that works in all types of formats.
Of course, there's also the fact that Nimmo is consistently hitting leadoff for one of the premier offenses in all of baseball. Not only that, but the Mets play seven games this week, including three in Cincinnati. There shouldn't be a shortage of runs this week, and no hitter stands to benefit from that more than him. Rather than try to find a bigger fish in the water, let's settle with finding Nimmo.
Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs
31% rostered
Once upon a time, the Cubs were on top of the world. Now, they're clearly in a rebuilding phase, looking for players who can be a part of their next playoff roster. As it turns out, their 2018 first-round draft pick may be emerging as such.
If I told you a contact-oriented middle infielder on the Cubs was having a high-end season, you'd be right to assume it was Nick Madrigal. Alas, it's Nico Hoerner, a player who was selected 20 spots after Madrigal in the same draft, that has burst onto the scene. Known mainly for his top-notch defense, the Stanford product is making an exceptional amount of contact (14.6% whiff%, leading to a 10% strikeout rate, while his contact sprays (30.1% flare/burner) play very well for a high batting average. In fact, his .324 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is rather reasonable, and it's hard not to expect him to hit .280-.290 the rest of the way; Remember, this is also a player who walked 10% of the time last year, so more on-base skills could come soon.
Meanwhile, Hoerner, an athlete blessed with 92nd percentile sprint speed, has made the most of his athletic abilities, already attempting seven stolen bases in 60 games. That likely puts him on pace for at least around seven stolen bases the rest of the way, which holds value in fantasy leagues when you add that to the batting average. In points leagues, his lack of strikeouts made him a must pickup yesterday, but for standard category leagues, the combination of batting average and stolen bases up the middle is immensely valuable.
Plus, the Cubs are yet another team playing seven games this week. While the competition is fierce, Milwaukee and Los Angeles at least have two ballparks with above-average park factors, per Baseball Savant. Then you factor in that he's up to 5th in the lineup, and has specifically been on a tear as of late, and the intrigue with him only grows. This is an ascending young player, and it is time to take notice!
Orlando Arcia, 2B/OF, Atlanta Braves
11% rostered
As an organization that just won a World Series without their best player in Ronald Acuna Jr., the Braves are no stranger to having to replace an All-Star player. With second baseman Ozzie Albies on the 60-day injured injured list with a fractured foot, Atlanta will look to recapture that devil magic, which it appears they may have done.
When the Braves acquired Orlando Arcia in a small trade from the Brewers last year, it certainly did not get much in the way of headlines. At the end of the day though, adding depth via a former top prospect who may just need a change of scenery is always a very advisable move and it's paying off for them now. In 106 plate appearances, Arcia has a 117 wRC+, essentially replacing what you could have hoped for from Albies. The best part? There may be something going on here.
It's hard to deal with small sample sizes. That being said, the two metrics that tend to stabilize the quickest are barrel rate and plate discipline metrics. Well, through 72 batted balls (past the stabilization point), Arcia has an 8.3% barrel rate, while 48.6% of his batted balls have been 95 MPH or harder. Huh, there may be something here. Well, that's particularly true when considering Arcia is making more contact in the zone (85.8%) than ever, while also not expanding the zone (25.2% chase) like he has been ironed to do previously. These may very well end up being legitimate changes, creating a strong layer of upside here.
From a fantasy perspective, Arcia may not steal bases, but he can provide your fantasy team with a solid batting average with some power upside. Most importantly, his ability to be legible in the middle infield and outfield makes him easy to slot in, especially in a week where the Braves play seven games, all at home, against the 7th-most friendly schedule of opposing pitchers. It's clear the 27-year-old is going to be an X-Factor for the Braves as they look to once again win the NL East, and at least for this week, the same can be true for your fantasy team. Now, let's hope these changes can stay.
Yandy Diaz, 1B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
10% rostered
When it comes to evaluating baseball players at a younger age, a lot can often be surmised about a player's body type. However, our eyes can often deceive us; just because a player looks like he should fit in a certain bucket doesn't mean he actually will. In fact, Yandy Diaz has become the poster child of this.
Listed at 6'2", 215 pounds with a very muscular build, Diaz looks just like the type of hitter who should be slugging 30+ homers with ease. Simply based on his 94th percentile max exit velocity, the raw power backs that up. Unfortunately, hitting for power isn't simply about how hard you hit the ball; the trajectory is also extremely important. Alas, with a career 54.9% ground ball rate, Diaz hasn't quite been able to tap into the power that you would hope for. Fortunately, he's still a very valuable offensive player.
I mean, any player who walks (15.1% BB) more than they strike out (10.9% K) is going to be in good shape, especially when they hit the ball as hard as Diaz. Ultimately, this leads to a plus batting average and on-base percentage for Diaz, while Tampa Bay entrusts him at the top of their lineup. From a real-life standpoint, the value of his on-base skills is evident but don't discount what that provides in fantasy. For starters, his .271 projected batting average from THE BAT X is certainly an above-average number, yet you also have to consider the value of consistently getting on base when hitting at the top of a lineup – it leads to plenty of run opportunities that cannot be overlooked.
Why is this especially important this week? While the Rays play only six games, they all take place in Boston or Cincinnati, two of the top-three hitter-friendly ballparks, according to Baseball Savant. Even without the extra game, you should be willing the bet on the quality of these six games for Diaz, which could include an even higher batting average, to be well worth it. Considering the lack of offensive production at third base this year, how could that not be something you'd want to sign up for? He may not be a book you can judge by his cover, but the climax is well worth it.
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