RADIO
Have we found a reasonable median expectation for offense moving forward? So far in July, the offensive output has been remarkably similar, though power still remains down compared to previous seasons. On the bright side, we are seeing slightly fewer strikeouts, so the league-wide on-base percentage is roughly unchanged from last year. That being said, let's hope there can be some uptick in power as the weather continues to warm up.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's FIP projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
For the second straight week, there is a notable abundance of games. Now, strangely, the Dodgers and Angels don't play on Sunday, but that is compensated for by multiple double headers throughout the week. In simple terms, we'll have a lot of baseball this week.
Now, some of the teams that have the most intriguing matchups don't have the quality of hitters that are seemingly available on the waiver wire, which could complicate things somewhat. Still, thanks due to the high frequency of seven or eight-game weeks, there are still more than enough players who should be on your radar. So who is in a position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Connor Joe, OF/1B, Colorado Rockies
38% rostered
A seven-game week in Colorado? Baseball fans, Rockies hitters, and fantasy managers rejoice! After a week in Los Angeles and Arizona, what better way for the offense to be on display than a week of Coors magic?
I could simply label this as "all available Rockies hitters," and that would probably be a satisfactory case on its own. However, if there's one Colorado player to target, it is certainly Connor Joe. By now, hopefully, you're aware of Joe's exceptional story. After dominating in the minor leagues between multiple organizations, Joe finally got his chance at the big level with the Giants in 2019, only to get on base two times in 16 plate appearances before being let go. Soon after, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer, and not only managed to recover but somehow managed to get back into baseball in 2021.
On its own, that would be an amazing story. Instead, Joe posted an absurd 165 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) in Triple-A with the Rockies and then continued to thrive (116 wRC+) upon being promoted to the MLB level. Finally, after overcoming enormous obstacles that few people could, he had found his place in the big leagues as a clear above-average hitter.
Now, from a production standpoint, things haven't gone as smoothly for Joe this year; his barrel rate has declined to 4.9%, while he's only hitting 32.9% of his batted balls 95 MPH or harder. Yet, when you're a hitter who makes a lot of contact (7.7% swinging-strike rate), has even sprays, and hits a lot of flares and burners (26.5%), you're going to be set up for success in Coors Field – there's a reason he's running a.360 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at home this year.
From a wRC+ standpoint, Joe is essentially an equivalent hitter at home to that on the road. Nevertheless, let's compare the difference in his actual output:
- Home: .283/.392/.421
- Away: .257/.348/.361
That's a notable difference, which isn't uncommon for Rockies hitters, particularly those optimized to take advantage of Coors Field like Joe is. For this week, this is a player who is going to hit for a high average and get on base at a very strong rate, while hitting leadoff for an offense playing seven games in Colorado. That's going to mean an exceptional amount of runs scored, while his strong BB/K ratios give him an extra boost in points leagues. Regardless of your format, this is a player you must target to put your team in the best position to succeed.
Luke Voit, 1B, San Diego Padres
38% rostered
Remember when Luke Voit was a folk hero in New York? Honestly, based on his production in his first three years there, you can see why that was the case:
- 2018 (161 PA): .322/.398/.671, 188 wRC+
- 2019 (510 PA): .263/.378/.464, 126 wRC+
- 2020: (234 PA): .277/.338/.610, 153 wRC+
It may have been a shortened season, but Voit led the league in home runs in 2020! There is a clear reason he was considered one of the best first basemen in baseball; few could match the offensive output he was capable of producing. Unfortunately in 2021, he dealt with multiple injuries limiting him to 241 plate appearances, and with a 111 wRC+, he couldn't quite match his previous level of production.
Clearly, the Yankees felt they needed a change at the first base position. Not only did they acquire Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline, but they then re-signed him to a two-year, $32 million contract, leaving Voit without a spot in a crowded lineup. Thus, he was traded to the Padres, a team in clear need of power, clearing the path for a fresh opportunity to get back to his old level of production.
Ironically, with a 111 wRC+ this season, Voit has essentially been the exact same player as last year. However, there are signs that is changing. Take the evolution of his isolated power (ISO) for the season as a clear example:
On May 13th, the Padres signed Robinson Canó to platoon at the designated hitter spot with Voit, who was struggling to hit for power (.142 ISO). However, since Cano was demoted to Triple-A on June 1st, Voit has a 125 wRC+ with a .258 ISO and an absurd 22.5% barrel rate. Sure, the strikeouts (34.8% K) are still an issue, but he's getting on base and hitting for power; he's exactly who the Padres were looking for.
From a fantasy perspective, in non-OBP leagues, Voit's high strikeout rate hurts him in points leagues, while the poor batting average isn't ideal in standard 5x5 leagues. However, at a time when power is more scarce than ever, this is the type of player who could vault you up that category in just one week, while hitting in the middle of the order for the Padres behind Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth.
The best part? The Padres play seven games this week, with four of them at Coors Field. Even more exciting, they not only face the easiest slate of starting pitchers this week but for any week so far. As they look for their offense to catch up to their pitching, this is the exact type of week where that can happen, and Voit may be at the center of the show. While he continues to surge, you won't want to miss out!
Josh Naylor, OF/1B, Cleveland Guardians
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Naylor: 34% rostered
Kwan: 16% rostered
Can the real Guardians please stand up? As recently as last week, Cleveland looked like a legitimate threat to win the AL Central. Now, after losing four straight games to the Tigers, they're only a game ahead of the third-place White Sox entering Thursday, and 4.5 games behind the division-leading Twins. If they're going to make up some ground, this is going to be a pivotal week for them.
Should that happen, these two players are going to be a major reason why: particularly Josh Naylor. Considering he dislocated his right ankle in late June last year, there wasn't much expectation that Naylor would come as early as he did (late May), let alone perform at a high level. Nevertheless, through 217 plate appearances, he's boasting a 136 wRC+, combining the ability to hit for average (.276) with strong power (.235 ISO). The best part? This would appear to be very sustainable.
For starters, most of Naylor's batting average has been due to his immense contact skills (15.7% K, 8.5% swinging-strike rate), as opposed to batted-ball luck (.279 BABIP). As a lefty with 9th percentile sprint speed, he's never going to run a high BABIP, but with his ability to hit the ball with authority (43% hard-hit) with relatively even sprays, it also won't be at a concerning level as well; he's projected for a .284 BABIP from ZiPs for the rest of the season.
Then, you add in that he's matching his raw power with more fly balls (25.5%) than ever, and Naylor's on pace for a career-high in barrel rate and power production. Hitting in the middle of the lineup with contact skills and power, how could you not be intrigued? As for Steven Kwan, the 24-year-old hasn't quite been able to match the hype generated from his elite start to the season. That being said, he pretty clearly has the best contact skills (2.9% swinging-strike rate) in baseball, gets on base (.362), and is projected by ZiPs for a strong .283/.348/.404 (116 wRC+) slash line the rest of the way. In points leagues, he should have been on your team yesterday, while he definitely can boost your batting average and runs scored (he's the leadoff hitter against righties) in the ideal week.
The most intriguing aspect of these two players? The Guardians not only play eight games this week but all of them are projected to be against right-handed pitchers, ranking in the top-ten in park factor and projected starting pitcher FIP. If you aren't going to insert these players this week, then when would you ever? It's shaping up to be a terrific week for streamers, but these two need to be at the top of your bucket list.
Harold Ramirez, OF/1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Yandy Diaz, 1B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Ramirez: 27% rostered
Diaz: 14% rostered
As a very small-market team, the Rays aren't a team that can bake their cake and eat it too. They need to be looking for any market inefficiency possible to exploit, and for them targeting players with clear flaws but also strengths they can provide for their team has been a consistent plan for them. It's done them very well, as is the case for these two players.
One of those market inefficiencies? Targeting players who might not have optimal contact trajectory, but hit the ball extremely hard and have strong contact skills. At the very least, you should be getting players who can get on base at a reasonable clip, but there's always the added upside that a swing change comes that leads to more power. That hasn't happened for these two players, yet they have been immensely valuable for Tampa Bay this season.
When the Rays acquired Harold Ramirez from the Cubs right before the season, it's unlikely many, outside of hard-core Tampa Bay fans, took notice. However, little did we know that Ramirez, with a 132 wRC+, would arguably be the Rays' best hitter so far. As much as we'd love to dream of the power upside of a player with a 114.7 Mph max exit velocity to his ledger, the 27-year-old's high ground ball rates (52%) neutralize it. At the same time, when you hit the ball hard, not in the air, and have 75th percentile sprint speed, you're going to hit for a high BABIP.
Sure, Ramirez's currently .353 BABIP won't stand, but we're also not expecting him to continue to hit .314. Rather, if he can register a .280+ batting average, as most projections peg him for, he's in a strong spot, especially hitting third for Tampa Bay. Honestly, we could just copy and paste that for Yandy Diaz, whose 95th percentile max exit velocity raw power doesn't lead to optimal power production, but his contact skills (10% K) and quality lead to high batting averages. THE BAT X projects him for a .273 batting average and .364 on-base percentage the rest of the way, which also translates to a lot of runs scored at the top of the Rays lineup.
It isn't necessarily ideal that Tampa Bay plays all of their games at home, considering the pitcher-friendly nature of Tropicana Field. At the same time, players do generally perform better at home, and the Rays play seven games this week against the sixth-easiest projected slate of starting pitchers. Both of these players will combine strong batting averages with plenty of run production at premium spots in the order, and are even more valuable in points leagues. They may not play for the Yankees or Dodgers, but don't let that lead to them flying too far under the radar!
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