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We are now a month in the baseball season, yet it still feels like we have many more questions than answers. Will teams like the Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, and Phillies start performing up to par? When will struggling stars get back on a groove? What is the baseball going to look like in a month? There is so much left to figure out!
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Obviously, playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
As you can see, we have multiple teams with eight games this week, which is quite tantalizing. Unfortunately, despite facing a schedule of weak opponents, the Guardians only play five games this week, making them not a viable team to stream. Teams like the Mets, Astros, and Dodgers don't have many streaming options due to overall talent of their respective lineups – practically all of their starting players are 50% rostered, forcing us to dig a bit deeper.
Despite that, though, this is a tremendous week for streaming hitters. Well, it'd be hard for it not to be when four teams play eight games this week, with several teams getting seven-game weeks. This is going to be the aftermath of the first two series of the year being cancelled, and it's going to open up opportunities to take advantage. Who should you insert into your lineup this week? Let's find out!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants
27% rostered
Did you know that Mike Yastrzemski is the grandson of Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski? You almost certainly did, based on how many times that's been reported. The real question is: can you spell Yastrzemski? It's a tricky name is which many mistake the "s" for a "z", which makes sense considering his nickname is "Yaz". Well, with a last name as long and complex as his, it's a good thing he has such a smooth nickname!
Don't look now, but with a .267/.341/.373 slash line, which amounts to a strong 111 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), Yastrzemski is performing better than expectations right now. In fact, after struggling mightily with a 92 in the second half last year, he looks back to his peak self. The best part? There is no reason to not expect this to continue.
With a 10% barrel rate, Yastrzemski is demonstrating the same power he has constantly had, even if his .107 isolated power (ISO) doesn't match up with it. The difference? Just a 16.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% swinging-strike rate, which are way lower than his previous bench marks. Considering that this is happening due to a strong approach (15.1% chase) and making more contact in the zone (86.9%), there is a lot to be encouraged by here, especially since the extra quantity of contact hasn't suppressed his power.
If these gains can prove to be somewhat legitimate, which they very well might considering his improvements have been in rather stable metrics, Yastrzemski not only continue to provide solid power and run production in a Giants offense that is third in runs scored per game this season (4.9), but suddenly doesn't present much concern his batting average, especially at a time when the league-wide batting average has cratered.
The Giants may only play six games this week, but remember than three of them are in Colorado, giving Yastrzemski the perfect opportunity to continue producing at a high level; those games are also likely to feature a lot of runs scored for San Francisco, leading to strong counting stats batting in the middle of their lineup. Banking on a player with a previous track record of success, is performing in all the ways you'd hope he would, and also plays half of his games in Colorado seems to be a nice strategy. Well, that's exactly what you'll be doing when you pick up Yastrzemski this week.
Alek Thomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
24% rostered
Usually, it's advisable to be wary of rookie hitters in fantasy baseball, and for good reason. Generally, there is a notable learning curve, especially as the gap between Triple-A and MLB continues to expand. Over the past few seasons, the hit rate of rookie batters certainly has not been great, and we have to wonder if Alek Thomas will fall into the same mold.
At the same time, we cannot let previous mistakes cloud our judgement at a player that can certainly be a productive fantasy asset, which could be the case with Alek Thomas. Remember, this is a player that had just an 18.8% strikeout rate combined with a .241 ISO as a 21-year-old in Double-A and Triple-A last year; the pedigree and the statistical track record each check out. In 116 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, Thomas, still just 22-years-old, struck out just 13.8% of the time, while also displaying plus power (.218 ISO). It is worth noting that, due to the run environment, that only amounted in a 114 wRC+, but based on several scouting reports, he is trending as a player with a plus hit tool, as well as 87th percentile sprint speed; the combination gives a very solid foundation.
Yet, I would not sleep on the power that Thomas could demonstrate either. In an extremely small sample size, the quality of contact has been off the charts:
Alek Thomas now has 10 batted ball events. 7 of which have been hit over 95 mph & 2 Barrels. I don’t think he last long in the 8 & 9 hole. https://t.co/0llOTOM122
— Max Freeze (@FreezeStats) May 12, 2022
Now, we are miles away from having any idea statistically on Thomas' skillset. That being said, if there is one thing to trust early on, it's the ability to demonstrate plus raw power, which he has certainly done. At some point, given his consistent ground-ball rates above 50% in the minors, he'll need to make an approach change, but that, combined with his speed, at least voids well in the batting average department.
With the Diamondbacks playing eight games this week, now is the time to take a shot on Thomas. Even if the power doesn't completely materialize, there is still a lot to like. For perspective, THE BAT X, which is notoriously cautious with rookies, has him pegged for a .262 batting average with around 10 steals in a full-season pace, while other projections are much more bullish on the power. This is precisely the type of prospect that I would want to take a chance on, and if it doesn't work out, you can easily move on and look for another stopgap. Simply put, there is no reason not to add him in leagues with 12 or more teams; this is a player who has the chance to be an all-around contributor.
MJ Melendez, C, Kansas City Royals
21% rostered
Another rookie? Well, this is quite untypical. That being said, we don't make the rules in terms of who gets to play in eight games in a week, which is what the Royals will have. Most importantly, though, as of now, they are only scheduled to face one left-handed pitcher, which is great news for MJ Melendez.
After falling off the prospect radar in 2019, Melendez came into 2021 as a changed player. Between Double-A and Triple-A, the lefty slugger posted an absurd .337 ISO, but, most importantly, had just a 21.7% strikeout rate; the ability to hit for power without being a total liability in batting average is significant, especially at the catcher position. Fast forward to this season, and although his overall numbers were deflated due to poor batted-ball luck, he still walked at a 14.3% clip with a 24.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A.
Now, Melendez is up at the MLB level, and while 18 plate appearances is a ludicrously small sample, I'd still be encouraged by his ability to quickly adjust to MLB pitching with very strong plate discipline numbers (15.4% chase, 5.5% swinging-strike rate) thus far. Meanwhile, Kansas City has demonstrated their faith in him being more than a platoon bat by putting him in the lineup against lefties, which also helps his stock. In general, though, hitters with strong plate discipline are the ones who face less steep learning curves at the MLB level, and based on Melendez's track record, I would suggest that to be the case.
As someone with a knack for pulling the ball and hitting a lot of fly balls based on his minor-league data, there should be little doubt with Melendez hitting for plenty of power at the MLB level. Remember, this is someone with catcher eligibility – the bar for him to clear is much lower. With eight games this upcoming week against some home-run happy pitchers (Vince Velasquez, Johnny Cueto, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer), feel comfortable inserting him into your lineup.
Christian Walker, 1B, and David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Walker: 6% rostered
Peralta: 4% rostered
There is something poetic about going from two rookies to two players who are 31-years-old or older, but all production counts the same! These two veterans currently have ordinary numbers, but are quietly accomplishing a lot under-the-hood that could lead to a major surge in production soon.
Let us start with Christian Walker, who seemed to be coming into his own when he posted a 110 wRC+ in 2019, and then following it up with a 109 wRC+ during the shortened 2020 season. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily with an 87 wRC+ with little power (.137 ISO) last year, and by the looks off his 99 wRC+, it'd be easy to dismiss any potential of a bounce back.
Luckily, that's not the whole story. Quietly, the 31-year-old has posted a 17.1% barrel rate this season, while he's chasing fewer pitches outside the zone (20.9% chase) than ever and making much more contact in the zone (87.3%). Considering these are the three major statistics to count on this early in the season, this is remarkably encouraging; when his batting average on balls in play (.184 BABIP) normalizes with more line-drives (15.8%), you're looking at a potential .250 hitter with plus power, which should be quite intriguing.
With a career 115 wRC+ with a .291 batting average and .184 ISO between 2014 and 2020, outfielder David Peralta had seemingly established himself as a tremendously consistent player that you could easily rely on to be a plus in batting average with enough pop. Sadly, his batting average fell to just .259 in 2021, while he hit just eight home runs in 538 plate appearances; essentially, he provided next to nothing in terms of fantasy value, and at 34-years-old, there wasn't much optimism about him rebounding.
Like Walker, it may seem as though Peralta's struggles are continuing with a 91 wRC+ this year, but that isn't actually the case. For starters, he's made a legitimate approach change, with his fly-ball rate more than 20 percentage points higher (37.8%) than it has been for his career (17.3%). This all likely stems from mechanical changes he admitted to making before the season, and should continue to lead to a surge in power. Thus, once his .229 BABIP reverts back to normal, he's a .260 hitter with fine power, which works quite well in deeper leagues.
Of course, there's also the fact that Arizona plays eight games this week. Who stands to benefit? What about the team's middle-of-the-order hitters, who'll be able to accumulate plenty of counting statistics this week. These may not be the "sexy" picks, but, honestly, outside of Yastrzemski, they are the two best hitter streamers for this week, especially with them widely available. Plus, there's nothing better than having a reason to stay up and watch some West Coast baseball, am I right?
Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox
1% rostered
We may be digging DEEP here, but for good reason. What if I told you, that as things stand, the White Sox are set up to play eight games next week with all but one against right-handed pitching? Hopefully, this leads us to one name – Gavin Sheets.
On the surface, with an 87 wRC+ and .213/.263/.360 slash line, there wouldn't be much to be excited about with Sheets for this week. Yet, with a 12.1% barrel rate and just an 8.2% swinging-strike rate, he's thriving in the two most relevant ways. As his 19% pop-up rate normalizes (no hitter can sustain such a high number), we'll see his batting average climb up, while it is hard to question the power.
Facing the Yankees is tougher, but a five-game stretch against a Kansas City rotation that ranks dead last in the MLB in strikeout rate, K-BB ratio, and skill interactive ERA (SIERA) should be eye-opening. Even with his very low rostership rate, Sheets is someone you should certainly be looking to stream in 12-team leagues. A lot of playing time hitting in the middle of the lineup against subpar pitching for a player with an intriguing underlying skillset? Sign me up!
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