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I don't know about you, but I'm in awe of some of the games that have taken place this week. With a weekend full of tight matchups (I'm looking at you, Yankees and Rays), as well as a full slate of action on Memorial Day, more exciting times are ahead for the game of baseball!
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Obviously, playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Simply put, this is going to be a very action-packed week! The Cubs, for instance, play NINE GAMES this week, and although their rating is hurt due to facing the Brewers and Cardinals, thus playing tough completion in non-favorable ballparks, it's hard to not look at their hitters this week. Meanwhile, three teams also play eight games this week, while there are plenty of seven-game weeks as well.
The only tricky part? Teams such as the Cubs, Rockies, Braves, Mets, Dodgers, and Nationals aren't the best in terms of possessing streaming options. Thus, the pool of quality hitter streamers is smaller than you'd expect this week. That being said, there are still plenty of talented hitters in a position to succeed this week that you should be looking to pick up this week.
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Max Kepler and Mike Yastrzemski
Kepler: 49% rostered
Yastrzemski: 46% rostered
UPDATE: After this article was written and published, Max Kepler was removed from Saturday's game with an injury, tightness in his lower leg. He is considered day-to-day.
If everything goes as planned, I find it very hard to believe that these two hitters will be eligible for this list next week. After all, as things stand right now, there isn't any reason for them to be under 50% rostered, even if they're mainly only available in shallower leagues.
It's very nice of the fantasy baseball world to let Kepler stay at 49% rostered, allowing me to sing his praises for one more week. By now, we know the drill about the 29-year-old; he features plus plate discipline (13.4% BB) and contact skills (16.5% K), as well as strong overall power (9.8% barrel). Yet, there has been a change this season, and it has come in a way that you wouldn't expect.
See, with a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of just .236 from 2018 to 2021, Kepler's batted-ball trajectory, featuring an extraordinary amount of balls in the air, truly suppressed his batting average, hurting his fantasy value greatly. This season though, he's managed to lower his launch angle (13 degrees), allowing him to raise his batting average and get on base more often.
This is unusual at a time where the baseball itself isn't rewarding hitters with higher launch angles the way we're used to. Being in the launch angle bucket that Kepler is now in really works in this current environment, making him stand out right now. The Twins play eight games this week, including five against the Tigers and six righties, though Kepler is now playing against lefties as well. From a statistical accumulation and an overall talent perspective, there is no reason not to add Kepler to your team this week.
Yastrzemski is also benefitting from a slightly lower launch angle, is pulling the ball less (39.1%), isn't chasing pitches out of the zone (17.6% chase rate, 13.6% BB), and is making much more contact in the zone (87.1%). Add it all together, and you get a much better batting average and on-base percentage, while his power output (12% barrel) has remained strong this season. He's batting third for a Giants offense that is averaging the second most runs per game (5.10), and also gets to face six righties this week. Does it get much better than this? He's not just Carl's grandson, but a terrific overall offensive talent, and he has no business sitting on the waiver wire in almost any league.
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Santander: 25% rostered
Don't look now, but the Orioles have become a much more exciting team. They've certainly demonstrated more overall competitiveness this year despite a very difficult schedule, now have uber-prospect and 2019 #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman up in the majors, and have an absolutely loaded offseason.
The development of their minor leaguers is what stands out, but they're also getting intriguing performances from a few of their major-league hitters as well, such as outfielder Anthony Santander. In a very small 165 plate appearance sample size in 2020, Santander demonstrated what we hoped was a breakout, posting a 130 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) with an absurd .314 isolated power (ISO). Last season, the switch hitter came back down to earth, posting a 92 wRC+, striking out more (23.1% K) with less power (.192 ISO). Now Santander may have evolved into a different player, which is quite intriguing.
With a career 5.3% walk rate and 36.7% outside-zone swing rate heading into this season, Santander's plate discipline seemingly lagged behind his other skills. This season though, his 31.5% outside-zone swing rate is the lowest of his career, and although it has coincided with decreased aggression in the zone, more selectiveness is called for given his raw power, and it's showing with a whiff rate under 20% on off-speed pitches this season.
Right now, Santander is suffering from an outlier 21.4% pop-up rate (far too high) and a 19.7% line-drive rate (far too low). As those two numbers stabilize, his batted-ball luck will improve, allowing for a .240 batting average, a potentially even better on-base percentage that will lead to more runs scored with overall solid power numbers as well. The Orioles play seven games this week and have a top-ten schedule in terms of park factor and opposing pitchers. From a runs+RBI and power standpoint, Santander could be in line to help your fantasy team a lot.
Andrew McCutchen and Tyrone Taylor
McCutchen: 16% rostered
Taylor: 4% rostered
Heading into the season, the Brewers were seen as the favorites to win the NL Central, but mainly due to an elite pitching staff. However, what if I also told you they've been a top-ten team this year in terms of scoring runs as well? In a lot of ways, this may be their most complete team, and it will be exciting to see how their season progresses
Really, Milwaukee just has more lineup depth than in seasons past, and they still have room to be better. For instance, with a 9.8% barrel rate this season, cleanup hitter Andrew McCutchen has showcased the same power he did in 2021, but he's currently suffering from a very low 8.3% home run/fly ball rate. Meanwhile, he's making a lot of contact in the zone (87.3%), pointing to a better strikeout rate in the future, while THE BAT X projections for him hitting .250 with solid power (.187 ISO). Heck, he has already stolen three bases in 31 games this season, and that's with him getting on base at a lower clip than you'd expect. Add in his lineup position for a very productive offense right now, and there is a lot to like with his fantasy outlook.
Tyrone Taylor wasn't expected to be a starting player coming into the season, but he has forced Milwaukee's hand at this point. After showcasing offensive talent (106 wRC+) last season, he has continued to barrel the ball (8.9%) while making above-average contact in the zone (82.5%). In contrast, his propensity to hit the ball frequently in the air (career 29% fly-ball rate) and pull the ball (43.6%) has often led to him manufacturing more power. With him also playing above-average defense, he's taken over in center field for the struggling Lorenzo Cain, and only is in line to solidify himself as an everyday player with Hunter Renfroe now on the injured list.
A player who hits the ball hard, makes contact, and has been willing to steal bases in the past? That's intriguing. For both of these players, the fact that the Brewers are playing eight games cannot be ignored, even without the most favorable matchups. As McCutchen's power luck improves and Taylor gets more playing time, this is a lineup that only will continue to perform at a high level. While that happens, make sure they're on your fantasy team for this week.
Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, Miami Marlins
Cooper: 3% rostered
Right now, Yankees reliever Michael King (35.8% K, 30.2% K-BB) has been as elite as it gets, and New York is certainly glad that they acquired him in a 2018 trade with the Marlins. However, it's not as though Miami made out poorly. For starters, one of the players included in the deal, Caleb Smith, was later part of a package to acquire outfielder Starling Marte, which led to them getting Jesus Luzardo. Plus, in Garrett Cooper, they got a hitter who has been extremely productive when on the field.
Unfortunately, injuries have been an issue for Cooper in the past, as well as his defensive value – it limited the amount of playing time he got. In 538 plate appearances since the start of 2020, he has posted a 128 wRC+ and checks plenty of boxes offensively. Hits the ball hard? Check; Cooper has a 47% hard-hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate in this span. Doesn't swing-and-miss? Check; Cooper has just a 9.7% swinging-strike rate since the start of 2020.
It is unusual for a hitter to have a career .361 BABIP, and while it won't be that high for Cooper going forward, he does benefit greatly from his quality of contact (29.5% career flare/burner rate), as well as overall even sprays. Based on his barrel rate, it's only a matter of time before his 7.8% home run/fly ball rate vaults up in a major way, allowing him to be a .270 hitter with interesting power numbers as well. Batting in the top three for a Marlins lineup that ranks 11th in wRC+ also helps, especially since they'll play seven games this week, including three in Colorado. With first base, outfield, and corner infield eligibility, there really is no reason for Cooper to not be on your radar, at least for this week.
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