Top NFL Betting Expert Picks for Week 3 (9/22/19)

5 years ago by Steve Janik

Well that was quite a week for us. Going 4-0 was a breathe of fresh air but we must stay grounded and not get too excited because we all know where that leads.

Week 2 Picks: 4-0 (100%)
2019-20 Picks: 5-2 (71%)

We're here to dive into the numbers, teams, and picks setup for the NFL this week. There is nothing quite like waking up on Sunday morning, checking out the lines, and throwing down some fun money to make watching those games a little more enjoyable.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.

Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6)

O/U: 44

Cincinnati has developed a new love for the air attack. This should come as no surprise with Sean McVay disciple Zac Taylor at the helm. Though he's performed well, asking Andy Dalton to throw 47 times a game isn't a great strategy. On the ground, Joe Mixon is averaging 1.6 yards per carry, but on a bum ankle, there is much better to expect here. John Ross and Tyler Boyd might be one of the strongest receiver combos to begin the year. with 29 receptions and over 450 yards between the two of them. While the defense giving up 62 points through games is the reason for their 0-2 record, their 21-20 loss to Seattle in Week 1 is more indicative of where this team is.

The Bills are still a bit of a mystery, despite a 2-0 record. Josh Allen has been solid, throwing for 507 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. He's found new favorite weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley that are a great complement to each other. However, the ground game is giving Bills Mafia life. Frank Gore is likely to serve as the work horse back with Devin Singletary banged up, but don't forget that Allen is able to use his feet as well. Defensively, the Bills are great but games against the Jets and Giants aren’t exactly a great test.

While things have changed for the team, Cincy was great on the road last year, going 6-2 against the spread, while going 5-2 when considered underdogs on the road. Buffalo on the other hand wasn't as strong at home, going 3-5 ATS at New Era Field. I think Buffalo moves to 3-0 heading into a matchup with New England, but the Bengals have shown they're able to move the ball and put points on the board.

Pick: Cincinnati +6

Oakland at Minnesota (-9)

O/U: 43.5

After they got a 10-0 first-quarter lead on the Chiefs, the Raiders feel apart to lose 28-10. It was mores the Chiefs ability to score, but the fact that Oakland didn’t find the end zone in the remaining three quarters is worrisome. Now Josh Jacobs and Tyrell Williams have been limited all week with hip injuries. While the jury is still out on their availability this week, Derek Carr can barely win games with those two players, let a lone without either one of them.

Dalvin Cook and Minnesota Vikings are quickly becoming one of the best rushing offenses in football. It’s come at the expense of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen but Mike Zimmer doesn’t seem to care. Kirk Cousins actually threw 32 passes last week but only completed 14 for 230 yards with a score and two picks. This Minnesota defense is quite banged up, including Mackensie Alexander and Anthony Barr, which affected them last week in a 21-16 loss. However, the Raider aren’t the Packers.

The under hit six times in eight home games for Minnesota last season, while with Oakland on the road, the under was 4-3-1. As Minnesota continues to emphasis the run, and with Oakland potentially limited with their two playmakers banged up, I don’t see a lot of points being scored in U.S. Bank Stadium.

Pick: Under 43.5

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-6.5)

O/U: 47.5

The Daniel Jones era begins for the Giants. It’s too bad for the Giants fans that his first game isn’t at the Meadowlands. Luckily for him, he has the best running back in football (Saquon Barkley) in the backfield with him. Barkley is averaging 7.8 yards per carry through two games. Sterling Shepard is back after missing Week 2 with a concussion and Evan Engram is as steady as ever. The defense isn’t great, or good for that matter, and while they haven’t forced a turnover yet this season, facing off against Jameis Winston should help that number. The Giants averaged almost 1.5 turnovers on the road a season ago.

People immediately assumed that with Bruce Arians in town, that Tampa Bay and Jameis Winston would immediately become a contender in the NFC South. They got embarrassed by the 49ers to open the year and played a Panthers team without a quarterback last week and won 20-14. While Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are great players, Winston brings them down a peg. Their defense has been much improved, but they haven’t been tested yet. Whether the Giants let Jones loose or not, Barkley and Engram are reasons enough to question the Bucs’ ability to stop New York.

The Giants had the best road ATS record last year, covering in seven of eight games, and six times while considered an underdog on the road. This is a different team without Eli Manning and that’s saying something. They’ll likely be timid with Jones but overall the playmakers for the Giants are better than Tampa Bay.

Pick: New York +6.5

Houston at LA Chargers (-3)

O/U: 48.5

The Texans looked anemic last week against the Jags and almost lost late in the fourth quarter. For some reason, Houston doesn’t score as much at home as they do on the road, dating back to last year. In their Week 1 loss to the Saints, Houston dropped 28 on a supposedly good defense, before scoring just 13 at home last week. In 2018, Houston averaged 24.4 points per game on the road, compared to 19 at home.

This could turn out to be a back-and-forth shootout between both sides, but Watson seems comfortable on the road. With the tight spread and high total, I think Houston really puts on a show offensively against a Chargers Defense that gave up 22ppg at home last year.

Pick: Houston Over 22.5