RADIO
Boy, both Indianapolis and Buffalo really crapped the bed last week. Also, I'm not sure how New England doesn't put up a 30-spot on Cleveland, at home, nonetheless. Last week was a step back in the process, but there's still plenty of football to be played. However, be sure to pay attention to my Twitter (@ is below) for some extra prop picks every Sunday.
- Week 8 Picks: 1-3 (75%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 16-15 (52%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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New York Jets at Miami (+3)
O/U: 42
The Jets are coming around now that everyone is healthy. While there seems to be some turmoil surrounding the players and coaching staff, this offense isn't as bad as their record shows. Le'Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and Robby Anderson are three solid complements in an offense that has no protection up front. The Jets' offensive line is among the worst in the NFL, but against a Dolphins pass defense that is easily the worst in the league, I see some potential here.
Miami gave Pittsburgh an early scare in Week 8, but they were shutout after the first quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a terrible quarterback but he's still the team's best option. Mark Walton and Kalen Ballage are a gross running back tandem that have next to no upside behind an offensive line that ranks 24th in Stuffed % and 32nd in Open Field Yards, according to FootballOutsiders. Defensively, the Dolphins are a rotating door, and even the 1-6 Jets should have no issues running up, down, and around their hosts.
This isn't a very fun game to pick, but for a line that opened with the Jets as 6.5 point favorites, somehow the public is on Miami. Make no mistake, they are that bad. In this Week 9 matchup, we should see the same Jets that defeated the Cowboys in Week 6, but against a tanking Dolphins team. Don't overthink this one.
Pick: New York Jets - 3
Detroit at Oakland (-2)
O/U: 50.5
Detroit is 1-3 in their last four, but two of the three losses have been within four points. In that span, they’ve dealt with injuries, trade turmoil, and sheer bad beats. Matthew Stafford has gone back to his old form, throwing for over 2,000 yards and 16 TD’s already. This team doesn’t seem to be effected by the loss of Kerryon Johnson, as Stafford has thrown for over 800 yards with seven touchdowns in the last two games. On the other side, they’re potentially without Darius Slay and Snacks Harrison, and recently traded away Quandre Diggs. This side of the ball has a lot to prove if they want a shot at the playoffs.
One thing is for sure, the Raiders offense is the only reason they’re 3-4, and 2-2 in the last four games. They’ve racked up at least 375 yards and 24 points in that same stretch and have a solid spot in Week 9. Derek Carr has thrown for just under 1,000 yards along with seven touchdowns in the last four, and the Raiders will likely rely on him to have another solid showing. Defensively, Oakland surrenders 24.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play, which is one of the NFL’s worst.
I think the Raiders are playing a little out of their element recently, while Detroit has been getting a bit unlucky, as evidenced by their recent string of games. They’ve averaged 28.3ppg in their last four weeks, while Oakland has averaged just 17ppg at home this year. Look for Detroit to make a statement in this game and get over .500.
Pick: Detroit ML +120
New England at Baltimore (+3)
O/U: 45
At 8-0, the Patriots continue to roll in 2019, but they get an interesting matchup in Week 9. Tom Brady hasn’t been the game manager many would expect out of a 42-year-old, as he’s passed for over 2,200 yards and thrown for 13 touchdowns. Behind him, the rushing attack is in an interesting place, as Sony Michel has accounted for 61% of the team’s rushing yards, but still has yet to rush for over 100 yards in a game. Alternatively, as we talked about last week, this Patriots Defense is just unreal. Opponents score just 7.6ppg and average around 234ypg, while New England averages three takeaways per game. Just scary stuff from a team that is going to be tough to beat.
Baltimore is riding high on a three-game win streak, including last week's 30-16 road win in Seattle. Lamar Jackson is one of the most exciting young players in football, but he hasn’t quite had the test he’ll face this week. He’s thrown for 1,650 yards and rushed for 576 more, which leads the team. On top of the 14 scores he’s accounted for, Mark Ingram has the other seven offensive touchdowns Baltimore has scored. Defensively, the Ravens aren’t as strong as some may think. While they allowed just 16 and 17 points in their last two, respectively, they gave up 23, 40, and 33 in the previous three before that. They’ll have their hands full this week, with Brady and the Patriots, so they’ll need to stay within their means to try and limit damage.
Despite having such a steamrolling offense, New England has had only one game’s total go over 45 points, mainly because they get such a commanding lead early and then drown the clock out. In their six games against AFC opponents, the total has gone under five times, while the total has gone over four times in Baltimore’s five conference games. Although, I look for both sides to try and sustain long drives to keep the ball out of each others hands, thus keeping it a lower scoring affair.
Pick: Under 45
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (+1)
O/U: 42.5
The Colts have been just getting by this season; not one of their decisions have been by more than seven points. They haven’t been spectacular on either side of the ball, but their 5-3 record says that they play smart enough to win. However, when both T.Y. Hilton and Marlon Mack are healthy, this offense is as solid as it comes in the AFC.
Pittsburgh got a nice scare by Miami last week, but ultimately they pulled away and showed who the better team was. James Conner might be limited but I think Mason Rudolph is going to have to gun sling in this one, as Indy's offense is a touch better in skill positions. Defensively, Pittsburgh has a slight advantage thanks to a large amount of takeaways (2.7 per game).
Both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis average around 11 first-half points at home and away, respectively. I'm liking a hot start by both teams, in a game where each side needs a win.
Pick: 1st Half Over 21
