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Welcome fantasy friends and foes to the first weekly edition of 2021 Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids.
I will provide weekly advice on which players you can profit from by "buying low" and when to take the opportunity to "sell high" on players to gain the best return on investment.
After a wild Week 1, I identified four players to acquire and four players that fantasy managers should flip as we advance to Week 2.
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Buy-Low Candidates
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott entered this season with plenty of question marks after finishing with career lows across the stat board last season. However, Elliott arrived at camp recharged, in better shape, and focused on the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, Elliott kicked off this season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were the league's top-run defense last season. Kellen Moore, the Cowboys offensive coordinator, did not try to force the run game with Elliott. Instead, the Cowboys utilized Dak Prescott and his elite wide receivers in a pass-heavy attack that resulted in a career-high 58 pass attempts.
However, the game plan didn't make Elliott owners very happy. Elliott played on 83% of the offensive snaps and spent most of the time helping out in pass protection with devastating blocks.
If an Elliott manager was frustrated out of the gate after one week, now is the perfect time to buy. Elliott produced a meager just 33 rushing yards on 11 carries. A selling point for you to pounce on the Cowboys' running back.
Elliott will not face a top-run defense in the upcoming weeks. With Prescott slinging the ball all over the field, the offense will open up, and fantasy managers will get to see the vintage Elliott. Unfortunately, fantasy managers just witnessed his worst game this season.
Tim Patrick, WR, Denver Broncos
2021 breakout candidate Jerry Jeudy(high-ankle sprain) is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, which is disappointing for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos offense. However, with this injury, it opens up opportunities for the team's other pass catchers.
Patrick has displayed in the past that he can be a reliable receiver. Patrick produced a quiet breakout season in 2020 with 54 catches for 742 yards and six touchdowns. Ironically, Patrick (WR41) finished with more points scored than Jeudy(WR44) last season.
Patrick recorded zero drops on 79 targets last season, and at 6'4", he makes an ideal red-zone option. Unfortunately, the window to get Patrick is shrinking.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
Sterling Shepard finished as the WR10 in Week 1 after catching seven of nine targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. With prized free-agent Kenny Golladay still developing chemistry with Daniel Jones, Shepard has emerged as the go-to guy for Jones.
Shepard should be one of the top WR off the Waiver Wire for this week against Washington on Thursday Night primetime matchup. With Evan Engram ruled out for the Week 2 matchup and running back Saquon Barkley questionable, Shepard will be the main target against Washington. Their defense gave up 337 passing yards to Justin Herbert and 182 total yards to wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Shepard is in for a significant role this week and has a juicy matchup in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons. As a result, I am buying all the shares of Sterling Shepard I can get my hands on.
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antonio Brown turned back the hands of time to be a difference-maker for quarterback Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Brown recorded five receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown in his Thursday Night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
Brown posted respectable numbers last season with 45 receptions on 61 targets for 483 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. He is the Bucs' third receiver on an offense filled with weapons, but he still possesses upside to emerge as the best receiver on the field in any given matchup.
Sell-High Candidates
Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints
The biggest winner of Week 1 was New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston won the quarterback battle over Taysom Hill to take over as the team's signal-caller after the retirement of future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees.
Winston completed only 14 of 20 passes for 148 yards in the Saints' huge 38-3 Week 1 win over the Green Bay Packers, but five of those completions went for touchdowns! Winston finished as the QB2 in Week 1 and will build upon his early success when he takes on the Carolina Panthers this Sunday.
His TD numbers will regress. The pass-catcher talent level is weak and this small sample size of efficiency should make you nervous that Winston can maintain this error-free quarterback play.
Winston can be a viable fantasy weapon as a QB2 at best. Fantasy managers should attempt to reap the rewards of their fellow managers chasing the box score and selling Winston at his ceiling.
Mark Ingram II, RB, Houston Texans
This selection might be shocking since Mark Ingram ran the ball 26 times for 85 yards and a touchdown in the 37-21 Week 1 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Ingram is the perfect example of selling high. It is highly doubtful that a positive game script in future games will be with the Houston Texans. They might not even win another game until they face the Jaguars in Week 15.
Are you going to wager your fantasy hopes on Ingram and the Texans? This was a perfect storm matchup and there still remains a running back by committee in Houston with Philip Lindsay and David Johnson continuing to vulture Ingram's fantasy value.
It is very unlikely that we will see Ingram in this massive role again especially as the Texans head into their Week 2 matchup against the Cleveland Browns.
Contact an inexperienced fantasy manager and sell them Ingram's Week 1 stats and reap the benefits.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos
A look at Melvin Gordon's stat line in Week 1 against the New York Giants, and fantasy managers might be looking to add Gordon to their rosters.
A deeper dive suggests otherwise. Gordon finished with 11 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown as he continues to share the workload with rookie Javonte Williams, who finished with a team-high 14 carries.
His yardage number was inflated due to one big run of 70 yards against a Giants defense that didn't seem too interested in tackling anyone. Removing that big run and Gordon would finish with ten carries for only 31 yards. So, again, not someone I would be excited to add to my roster.
Savvy fantasy managers should jump at selling Gordon high and cashing in on his big run.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints
Finishing off my players to sell with a tight end who came out of nowhere to catch two touchdowns in the New Orleans Saints 38-3 dismantling of the Green Bay Packers.
Juwan Johnson started to create some buzz in the preseason, whose current value is at its ultimate peak. Johnson is the TE2 behind preseason breakout TE candidate Adam Trautman.
Johnson made the most of his opportunities by converting three catches into two touchdowns and 21 yards. It's not difficult to believe that his fantasy performance can be sustainable.
Trautman outproduced Johnson in every category besides touchdowns. Trautman played on 51 snaps while Johnson was only on the field for 12 snaps. In addition, Trautman had twice as many targets (six to three) as Johnson.
Touchdowns are highly unpredictable, and his other fantasy stats were disappointing. However, Johnson will never have more fantasy value than now. Perfect time to sell Johnson to a TE-needy team.
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