RADIO
After beating out the esteemed Pablo Sandoval in Boston for starting third baseman in 2016, Travis Shaw had a decent season for the BoSox (.242/.306/.421, 16 HRs, 63 runs, 71 RBI) but was quickly forgotten by the fantasy community.
As he quietly departed for Milwaukee before 2017, Shaw was barely a rumor on draft boards and cheat sheets. Mistake.
For anyone who drafted Kyle Seager, Adrian Beltre, or Todd Frazier as your set-and-forget third baseman last season, Shaw was a godsend as your marquee cornerstone struggled through most of the season.
Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers (3B)
Current ADP: ~93
Nicknamed the "Mayor of Ding Dong City", Shaw was a venerable statesman as part of the Brew Crew, easily surpassing career highs in ratio and counting stats (.273/.349/.513, 31 HRs, 84 runs, 101 RBI). If you're keeping track, those were Top-10 numbers at the hot corner in 2017. Not bad for a guy that wallowed in the free agent pool through May.
The impressive headline stats were supported by a .240 ISO (13% better than career average) and a 37.1% Hard Contact Rate (2.9% better). This could explain why Shaw achieved a personal best 20.5% HR/FB ratio despite hitting Fly Balls at the lowest rate of his career (37.6% vs. 41.2%). Shaw also cut back on swings outside the zone and upped his BB/K to 0.43.
Now, as rankings surface, the Mayor finds himself in another challenging battle for reelection. He's back on the pre-draft radar but serious prejudices against last season's strong campaign remain. Shaw is RotoBaller's 10th best option at third base and 78th overall. His ADP is 93, around the neighborhood of Chris Taylor, Ken Giles and Salvador Perez. Shaw is projected 60 picks after Alex Bregman and 35 behind Anthony Rendon. No one is overlooking the upside value of youth and versatility in Bregman or Rendon, but Shaw will turn only 28 shortly after Opening Day. Miller Park also rates as the friendliest for lefty sluggers.
Shaw is an optimal mid-round pick to balance a team. By waiting for a 3B, I can address can't-miss essentials such as stud outfielders and a couple aces early on. Shaw demonstrated he was a high-end 3-category player last season with a serviceable average; his 10-for-10 in attempted steals was also a bonus. Until he creeps up draft boards, I'm comfortable waiting on Shaw to fill my 3B needs and would even consider him ahead of Rendon or Justin Turner. At his ADP, the performance risk compared to Bregman or Josh Donaldson is overly discounted.
Arguably, 2017 was peak-Shaw production. Bears may be eager to scream mean reversion pointing to the high HR/FB ratio and .312 BABIP (career .305). But as mentioned, Shaw is young and his peripheral stats suggest improving plate discipline and well-hit production. Assuming full health, a return of .265, 80 runs, 27 HRs, 93 RBI, 6 steals is a worthwhile investment for a 7th or 8th round pick. Not too shabby for someone who once competed against a panda for playing time.
