RADIO
In the spring of 2014, I began a keeper league with 11 of my close friends. We had played fantasy baseball together for the last few years, but I finally convinced them to up the ante a bit and form a league that would persist from year to year. As fate would have it (and much to the dismay of some of my more conspiracy-minded leaguemates) I was randomly awarded the first overall pick by the computer. I grappled with the decision for days, and ultimately decided that in a league where you can keep players for their entire career, I wanted the then-30-year-old Miguel Cabrera instead of wunderkind Mike Trout. My choice was met with derision by almost everyone, and sure enough Trout went on to win the MVP that year.
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An Apologia for Cabrera
Many will still likely laugh at my pick, but I'm here to stand by the former Triple Crown winner, at least for 2016. Looking at FantasyPros' ADP rankings, which combines the ADPs of five major draft platforms, Cabrera sits at number 12, which would put him out of the first round in 10-team leagues. I'm not here to argue that Miggy should be drafted ahead of or between Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt or the aforementioned Trout, because he shouldn't be. Clayton Kershaw is probably the obvious next choice after the big three, but after him Cabrera is my choice.
As I discussed with fellow Rotoballer expert Nick Mariano, there are a number of factors that are likely to blame for Cabrera's tumble down the first round. First and foremost is the recency bias that accompanies Cabrera's FIRST EVER DL stint last year. As Nick puts it:
@Roto_Dubs someone prob said it/you know, but ppl could also be blindly assuming DL stint last year = decline of body = obv. DL for 2016 too
— Nick Mariano (@NMariano53) March 14, 2016
This is spot on. Cabrera will be 33 in April, and is certainly no longer in his physical prime. However, he has shown remarkable durability over the course of his career--that was the only DL stint he's ever had in his 13-year career, and it wasn't some traumatic injury.
@Roto_Dubs absolutely, but I think most don't even weigh how injury occurred or context of future inj. Just see it in one big vacuum.
— Nick Mariano (@NMariano53) March 14, 2016
He was sidelined by a calf strain, which is a very common ailment that has no long-lasting effects. He certainly isn't a player like Trout, Harper or Starling Marte who throws himself all over the field on a nightly basis (I'm not condemning hustle, I'm merely saying that Cabrera is a very low injury risk based on his type of play).
Cabrera STILL came back and won the batting title despite the missed time. The batting average is what keeps him in the top-five conversation for me. Cabrera has won four batting titles in the last five years, and has hit just over .334 on average over that time frame. He hit .338 last year, and the ability to make the bat meet the ball is not something that deteriorates significantly with age (at least not at age 33). Let's allow for some regression and say Cabrera hits .320.
He still hits in the middle of one of the more potent lineups in the American League (made even more formidable by the offseason addition of Justin Upton) and should have no problem reaching 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored. Assuming his average from the last five seasons (excluding his injury-shortened 2015) and you get 123 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Again, with regression lets put it at 110 and 98, respectively.
Some say Cabrera's power is on the decline, and that's probably true--his days of 40 home runs are likely over. However, he was still on pace for roughly 23 homers last year, and I think it's fair to assume he can still hit 28 with a full, healthy season. We're looking at a player who's going to hit .320 with 28 homers, 110 RBIs, 98 runs scored in one of the best lineup situations and with one of the best health track records of any top-round pick. All of those numbers are assuming regression as well, which Cabrera has never trended towards in his career outside of the home run totals.
During our conversation, Nick also offered a separate possible explanation:
@Roto_Dubs Maybe just ppl knowing what they're getting w/ Miggy, but holding onto hopes for HUGE growth with this new crop of players
— Nick Mariano (@NMariano53) March 14, 2016
This is probably the biggest factor in Cabrera's demise--he doesn't carry the excitement of the Carlos Correas, Giancarlo Stantons and Nolan Arenados of the league. I certainly don't expect Cabrera to win the Triple Crown again, but I'll counter with this--wouldn't you take Cabrera's relative security over the gamble on a younger player? When investing first-round picks, I always look for the players who are the surest bets, and Cabrera still seems to fit the bill for the reasons I've listed above. Perhaps you disagree with me entirely, and if so, please don't hesitate to reach out to me @Roto_Dubs and voice your opinions. But this is my humble ask - consider Miguel Cabrera in the first round of your drafts this year.
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