Two-Start Pitcher Streamers: Week 24

3 years ago by Michael Grennell

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Left-handers of the world unite! In this week's column we're going heavy on the southpaws, as only one of the five pitchers featured is a right-hander.

But before we get into that, let's recap the past couple weeks as always. Looking back at Week 22 it was a rough week for two-start streamers, as only two of the five made both of their projected starts and neither one looked particularly good. As a result, you were likely better off going with Bailey Ober or Josiah Gray as they put up the best outings of the week. And now in Week 23...yeah let's just skip that for now. It's not looking pretty early on.

So now let's get back to checking out this week's lefty-heavy bunch of two start streamers.

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Week 24 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered

Steven Matz, TOR - 56% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ NYY, @ BAL

While inconsistent at times, Matz has overall had a fairly solid year with Toronto, going 10-7 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.341 WHIP and 21.8 percent strikeout rate over 123 innings of work. He's been on a good run over his last nine starts where he's gone 3-3 with a 2.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP and 17.2 percent strikeout rate across 46 2/3 innings.

He'll be on the road for both starts this week, which should help him somewhat as he's pitched better on the road this year (3.56 ERA, 1.200 WHIP) than at home (4.17 ERA, 1.550 WHIP). Matz kicks off the week against the Yankees, as they will enter this matchup on a roll after slashing .240/.311/.442 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over their last 10 games. On one hand, this could be a difficult matchup for Matz, between the Yankees recent hot streak and the fact that they are hitting better against lefties this season (.255/.343/.421, 23.4 K%) than against right-handers (.230/.319/.393, 25 K%). But then again, in Matz's lone outing against the Yankees earlier this year, he held them to just one run on six hits while striking out 10 over 6 2/3 innings of work to earn the win.

Matz will head to Baltimore to close out this week, and despite going 3-7 over their last 10 games, the Orioles are slashing .270/.349/.458 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over that span. He had a solid outing against them in his latest start, in which he allowed two runs over five innings while striking out five on Wednesday. Managers will hope that Matz can build off that performance in this Week 24 rematch, as he will find no help in Baltimore's batting splits. The Orioles are hitting better against lefties (.259/.313/.433) than righties (.230/.298/.388), plus they're hitting better at home this season (.256/.321/.449) than on the road (.225/.286/.362).

This could be a rough week for Matz, as he's facing off against a pair of teams that have done well at the plate recently and it looks like these will be unfavorable matchups based on their lefty-righty and home-road splits. But at the same time, Matz has had some solid performances against both New York and Baltimore this year, and the Yankees (24.5%) and Orioles (23.8%) have the sixth and 11th-highest strikeout rates in the majors respectively. Matz could be a solid play in most formats this week, and at the very least managers who are looking for strikeout help should target him on the waiver wire.

Tarik Skubal, DET - 47% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ PIT, vs TBR

Skubal enters Week 24 coming off a rough showing in his last start against Oakland, where he allowed six runs over five innings of work to fall to 8-12 on the season. Before that, Skubal had looked great over his first four starts in August, going 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.985 WHIP and 30 percent strikeout rate across 22 2/3 innings of work.

He'll kick off the week on the road in Pittsburgh, where he'll face off against a Pirates squad that is slashing .233/.311/.372 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over their last 10 games. This should be an interesting matchup for Skubal, because while the Pirates haven't exactly been a great offensive team this season, they are hitting better at home (.238/.314/.374) than on the road (.227/.292/.345). On top of that, the Pirates are hitting slightly better (albeit not by much) against left-handers (.234/.302/.363) than against right-handers (.232/.303/.358).

After facing off with the Pirates, Skubal will return to Detroit to close out the week when he faces off against the Rays. Tampa Bay has been on a roll over their last 10 games, slashing .250/.317/.411 while averaging 5.7 runs per game in that span. The Rays have been hitting better on the road this season (.241/.314/.432) than at home (.236/.323/.407), but Skubal has put up much better results in Detroit (3.86 ERA, 1.274 WHIP) than on the road (4.96 ERA, 1.306 WHIP). He'll also be aided by the fact the Rays have been hitting worse against left-handed pitching (.235/.313/.393) than against right-handers (.241/.321/.435).

With the exception of his latest outing, Skubal has been riding a nice streak for a while now, and he looks poised to have a solid performance in Week 24. The Rays matchup could be a challenging one, but going up against one of the worst offenses in the majors in Pittsburgh should provide a nice boost to Skubal's value this week.

Week 24 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered

Mike Minor, KCR - 26% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ BAL, @ MIN

Yet another pitcher who has been inconsistent on the mound this year, Minor's overall numbers are not good this year as he is 8-12 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.258 WHIP over 152 2/3 innings of work. He's had some nice outings where he strikes out nine, and he's had poor showings where he's surrendered nine runs. While not necessarily great, Minor has shown some improvement recently, as he's posted a 4.43 ERA, 1.164 WHIP and 18.9 percent strikeout rate over his last four starts — two of which were quality starts. He'll open up the week against Baltimore, where he will have an identical situation to what Matz will have in his second outing of the week. Minor will have a much better matchup to close out the week when he faces a struggling Minnesota squad that is slashing .216/.297/.363 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over their last 10 games. He'll also get a boost thanks to the Twins' splits, as they are hitting worse against left-handers this year (.239/.308/.408) than against righties (.242/.321/.428).

Minor is a risky play this week solely due to his inconsistencies all season long. Managers should consider him the poor man's version of Matz for Week 24, and while there's definitely a fair amount of risk, he could provide some decent value in deeper formats.

J.A. Happ, STL - 19% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs LAD, vs CIN

Happ was not putting up great numbers with Minnesota this season, but since being traded to St. Louis he has shown some signs of improvement, as he's gone 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.330 WHIP and 18.7 percent strikeout rate over 29 1/3 innings with the Cardinals. He'll be at home for both starts this week, and he'll kick things off against the Dodgers who are slashing a paltry .196/.268/.361 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over their last 10 games. Along with those recent struggles, the Dodgers have also been hitting worse against left-handers this season (.234/.311/.424) than against right-handers (.246/.339/.422). Happ closes out the week against Cincinnati, as he'll look for a better performance this time around after getting shelled by the Reds to the tune of seven runs in one inning of work in his latest trip to the mound. While the Reds are hitting worse against lefties this year (.231/.311/.383), what should help Happ more this week is that Cincinnati is hitting worse on the road (.241/.317/.401) than at home (.260/.343/.465).

The start against the Reds will be the biggest question mark in terms of his value this week. Obviously it's not a good sign seeing him have that poor outing in his last start against the Reds, but managers could also see that as a fluky outing and could hope for better results with Cincinnati on the road. If you're willing to bet that Happ will rebound from his latest showing, then he is a good pitcher to target off the waiver wire for Week 24.

Bailey Ober, MIN - 16% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ CLE, vs KCR

Out of the pitchers available in over 50 percent of leagues, you'd be hard-pressed to find one who had a better month of August than Ober. Over his last five starts he's recorded a 2.30 ERA, 1.098 WHIP and 23.9 percent strikeout rate across 27 1/3 innings of work. He'll start off the week against the hot-hitting Indians, who are slashing .260/.334/.474 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last 10 games. Despite earning the loss the last time he faced Cleveland, Ober still managed to record a quality start in that outing as he allowed three runs — two earned — on five hits while striking out three over six innings of work. Ober will also look to have a slight boost in value, as he's pitched better on the road this year (3.72 ERA, 1.128 WHIP) than at home (4.23 ERA, 1.278 WHIP). He'll wrap up the week with a more favorable matchup against the Royals, who are slashing .231/.285/.367 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over their last 10 games. He'll benefit from both the Royals' home-road and lefty-righty splits, as the Royals are hitting worse on the road this year (.232/.288/.373) and they're also hitting worse against right-handers (.237/.298/.377).

The only right-handed pitcher in this week's column, Ober figures to have a couple solid matchups this week and could be an excellent option in deeper leagues. Ober probably has the best value out of the three pitchers in the under 25 percent rostered section this week.

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