RADIO
You know, some weeks it's easy to come up with an opening for this column, and other weeks I have no idea how I'm going to start things off. So this week let's open things up with, "Something, something, baseball is great. Something, something, pitchers. Something, something, OK here's the recap."
So closing out Week 6, there were some really good performances, but due to schedule changes only two of the five pitchers in that column made both of their scheduled starts (whoops). Surprisingly, Tyler Anderson was the big winner from Week 6 after going 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 11 strikeouts against the Padres and Cubs. That being said, managers did get one very solid outing out of Kyle Gibson, who allowed three runs while striking out eight in eight innings of work against the Twins. Meanwhile in Week 7, Madison Bumgarner is the clear front runner after striking out nine over seven scoreless innings to earn the win over the Marlins.
Alright now it's time to look at Week 8. There's some interesting choices in this week's column, including a couple guys that are available in virtually every league. Let's check them out.
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Week 8 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Jon Gray, COL - 46% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ SDP, vs ARI
I gotta be honest — I really hadn't been paying much attention to the Rockies this season. There's been so many historic performances and rising fantasy stars around the league, that I've kind of glossed over Colorado for the most part. So when I saw Gray was in line to be a two-start streamer this week, I figured he was worth looking at since he's always tended to be a solid strikeout pitcher, even if his ERA hasn't been the best.
Holy cow Jon Gray is actually pretty good this year.
His strikeout rate has bounced back nicely to 22.9 percent after a down year in 2020 that saw a career-worst 12.6 percent rate. And not only does he have the best ERA of his career currently at 2.94, he also has a career-best 2.93 xERA. While his strikeout rate isn't as high as he has posted in years past, Gray's success is coming from the fact that he is getting opposing batters to make weak contact against him. His .217 xBA ranks in the 72nd percentile, while his 33.6 percent hard-hit rate and 2.3 percent barrel rate rank in the 77th and 94th percentiles, respectively.
Gray will start off the week on the road against the Padres, who have been scuffling at the plate recently as they're slashing .223/.292/.352 over their last 11 games. Not only will Gray get the benefit of pitching away from Coors Field, but the Padres are also hitting worse at home (.216/.304/.318) than on the road (.248/.325/.404). After that he'll return to Denver to face a Diamondbacks team which — unlike the Padres — is hitting worse on the road (.217/.309/.370) than at home (.270/.335/.461). Gray will also benefit from the fact that the Diamondbacks are hitting worse against right-handed pitching (.234/.312/.388) than against left-handers (.250/.343/.465).
Look no further for the top guy to target this week among two-start streamers. And if he is able to pitch as well as I believe he will, then managers should look at keeping him rostered beyond Week 8.
Yusei Kikuchi, SEA - 37% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs DET, @ SDP
Let me start things off by giving a shoutout to Dave Swan, as it was his column this week that helped me decide to hop on board the Kikuchi train for Week 8. The ERA hasn't been great this season, and his 4.13 xERA is only a few points better than his current mark of 4.29. But he's looking like he's improved in the strikeout department, as his 25.6 percent strikeout rate, 30.1 percent chase rate and 47.3 percent chase-contact rate are all career-bests, while his 29.5 percent whiff rate is barely lower than his 2020 rate of 29.7 percent.
So with the improvements in his strikeout numbers, it makes sense that I love his first matchup of the week against the Detroit Tigers and their league-worst 29.3 percent strikeout rate. Plus Kikuchi will benefit from the fact that Detroit's offense not only struggles on the road (.205/.266/.331), but they also struggle against left-handed pitching (.202/.266/.268, 34.1 K%). In his second start of the week against the Padres, Kikuchi will benefit from the same home-road splits I mentioned when talking about Gray. But along with that, he will also benefit from the fact that San Diego is hitting worse this year against left-handers (.218/.311/.340, 24.2 K%) than against right-handers (.237/.316/.369, 20.9 K%).
If Gray is already rostered in your league, or if you are looking for pure strikeout upside and don't care about potentially taking a hit to ERA, then Kikuchi is the guy to target this week.
Week 8 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Casey Mize, DET - 19% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ SEA, @ KCR
Alright let's try this again. Mize was on the list in last week's column, but a rained out matchup with the Twins on Sunday threw his alignment off and prevented him from making two starts in Week 7. As I said last week, Mize hasn't had the greatest start to the year, going 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA and 16.3 percent strikeout rate through his first six starts. But after his outing against Kansas City on Wednesday, in which he allowed two runs over six innings while striking out four, Mize improved to 2-3 and lowered his ERA to 4.19 as well as lowering his xERA from 5.37 to 5.02. Still not great numbers, but an improvement nevertheless.
His starts in Week 8 are shaping up to be even better than in Week 7, as not only will he get a rematch with the Royals, he'll face the worst offense in the majors when he starts at Seattle. The Mariners are currently dead last in the majors in average (.204) and on-base percentage (.281), while their 26.8 percent strikeout rate is the fifth-highest in the majors. This will probably be the best week of matchups he will have this season, and managers should take advantage of Mize going up against a couple of weak offenses.
Jon Lester, WSN - 7% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ CHC, vs BAL
Lester is a guy to take advantage of now before reality comes crashing down on him. Taking a look at his Statcast metrics, it appears that Lester has been getting lucky on the mound with a 4.13 xERA against a 2.25 ERA. Also, he is just not getting many strikeouts this year, as his 15.2 percent strikeout rate and 20.5 percent whiff rate rank in the ninth and 15th percentiles respectively. Time is probably running out on Lester's good start to the year, but managers should still be able to take advantage of a couple of good matchups in Week 8.
He'll start things off against the Cubs in his first road start of 2021.The Cubs currently own the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 26.5 percent, while their .227 team average is the 10th-worst. And while they are hitting slightly better against left-handed pitching (.231/.322/.410) than against right-handers (.226/.314/.387), they are also striking out at a slightly higher clip against lefties (27.7%) than against righties (26.1%).
Afterwards, he'll head back to Washington to take on a Baltimore team that is not only hitting worse on the road (.227/.279/.359) than at home (.229/.305/.385), but they also rank in the bottom-10 in the league in average (.228), OBP (.291) and SLG (.371). This may be your last chance to get good value from Lester this year, so take advantage of it.
Matt Harvey, BAL - 6% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs TBR, @ WSN
Whoa Michael, are you seriously going to suggest starting washed up Matt Harvey after he gave up seven runs in his last outing and hasn't pitched five full innings since May 1? Well, yeah. As is the theme this week in the under-25-percent-rostered category, I'm banking a little bit more on the good matchups than on recent performances. Plus, while still not great, Harvey has looked slightly better on the mound this year as his 4.81 ERA and 16.6 percent strikeout rate are his best marks since 2018.
He'll open up the week at home against a Rays team that is ranked fifth-worst in the Majors in average (.217) and OBP (.298), fourth-worst in slugging percentage (.361), and owns the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 27.7 percent. After that matchup he'll face what looks to be a tougher offense in Washington that is currently slashing .245/.314/.378 on the year.
However, not only have the Nationals struggled over their last eight games (.223/.298/.353), Harvey will also benefit from the fact that Washington is hitting worse against right-handed pitching (.238/.299/.370) than against lefties (.263/.348/.410). Much like with Tyler Anderson in Week 6, I recommend managers double up on two-start streamers this week with Harvey and anyone else on this list.
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