Two-Start Pitcher Streamers: Week 9

4 years ago by Michael Grennell

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Wow. Just wow. Back-to-back nights with a no-hitter this week between Corey Kluber and Spencer Turnbull. We're up to six no-hitters this year, and it seems that's enough of a story to (thankfully) overshadow old men complaining about the unwritten rules of the game.

As always, let's go through and recap the past two columns before getting on to Week 9. Looking back to Week 7, it's hard to call a clear-cut winner. If I had to choose I'd give it to Luis Garcia, who was 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 12 strikeouts. But we also saw solid performances out of Dylan Cease (2.53 ERA, 10 K) and Martin Perez (1-0, 0.82 ERA, 9K) that week. As for Week 8, Casey Mize is the undisputed leader of the pack after allowing just one run with seven strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings as he earned the win over Seattle.

Now it's time to check out the streamers for Week 9, and this list should be able to provide more hits than the Mariners and Rangers this week. (Author's note: Nothing personal Texas and Seattle fans. I just couldn't pass up the chance to make that joke.)

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Week 9 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered

Cole Irvin, OAK - 52% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs SEA, vs LAA

In his third season in the Majors, Irvin has continued to show improvement on the mound. Since 2019, Irvin has raised his strikeout rate from 17.1 percent to 20 percent, lowered his walk rate from 7.2 percent to 4.1 percent, and has posted career-bests this year in xBA (.266), xSLG (.443) and xwOBA (.323). He also sports a 3.02 ERA over 52 2/3 innings of work, although his 4.11 xERA suggests he may be getting a little lucky early on in the season. He's coming off his worst start of the year on Thursday in which he allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings against Houston, but prior to that outing he had recorded four straight quality starts, and five quality starts in his previous six appearances.

There's truly no better way for Irvin to bounce back from his start against Houston than to face off against the Mariners to open Week 9. Seattle currently owns the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 26.7 percent, and they are dead-last in batting average (.198) and on-base percentage (.279). Oh, yeah, and that whole getting no-hit twice this year thing. Irvin also benefits from the Mariners' lefty-righty splits, as Seattle is hitting worse against left-handed pitching (.179/.255/.345) than against right-handed pitching (.205/.287/.366).

Although the Mariners have been hitting slightly better on the road (.221/.287/.403) than at home (.178/.271/.322), this should still be a nice matchup for Irvin. I know the joke can be made that the way things are going Seattle could be at risk of being no-hit any night, but I'm going to predict that Irvin tosses seven no-hit innings against Seattle, and either his bid will be broken up in the eighth inning or Oakland's bullpen will complete a combined no-hitter.

In his second matchup of the week, Irvin will once again benefit from lefty-righty splits, as the Angels are hitting worse against left-handers this season (.232/.312/.394) than against right-handers (.254/.307/.421). He'll also benefit from the fact the Angels are hitting worse on the road (.242/.299/.386) than at home (.255/.320/.446). And while the Angels haven't been as bad at the plate as Seattle, they have struggled in May with a .228/.298/.392 triple-slash line, and over their last 10 games they are slashing .203/.271/.350.

Despite the poor outing against Houston on Thursday, Irvin is the best two-start streaming option to choose in Week 9. If he's available in your league, he should be a top target off the waiver-wire.

Logan Gilbert, SEA - 38% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ OAK, vs TEX

It's been a rough start for Gilbert two games into his Major League career, allowing seven runs on nine hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts. But he's shown a lot of promise as he's made the jump from Single-A to the majors in just two seasons — even with the cancelled 2020 minor league season. He's recorded an 11-5 record and 2.12 ERA over 27 starts in the minors, with 170 strikeouts in 140 career innings, and he'll look to put up performances similar to those numbers in Week 9.

He'll open up the week pitching in Oakland against an Athletics team that currently sports the fourth-worst batting average (.222) and 11th-worst on-base percentage (.305). Oakland also has the 11th-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 24.6 percent, and they have struggled to hit at home (.214/.312/.398) as well as against right-handed pitching (.213/.299/.381). This all puts Gilbert in a good position to post his best start yet, and then he'll follow that up by returning to Seattle to face the Texas "Hey we also got no-hit twice" Rangers.

Like Oakland, Texas is hitting slightly worse against right-handers (.232/.307/.383) than against lefties (.242/.297/.387), although they are hitting better on the road (.242/.320/.391) than at home (.228/.285/.377). At the end of the day though, Gilbert should have a good time going up against the team that owns the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 26.3 percent.

Gilbert is a risky pick this week given how his first two starts went, but I like these matchups and I think that things will fall into place for him in Week 9.

Week 9 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered

Spencer Turnbull, DET - 23% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs CLE. vs NYY

Keeping up the theme of no-hitters in this column, let's take a look at the second-most recent pitcher to toss a no-hitter this season. Even before Tuesday's start, Turnbull had been putting up the best numbers of his career early on. He owns a 2.88 ERA and 2.98 xERA. His 22 percent strikeout rate is the second-highest mark of his career, while his 5.7 percent walk rate, .206 xBA, .341 xSLG and .278 xwOBA are all career-bests.

He'll open up the week by taking on a Cleveland squad that owns the second-worst batting average (.213) and on-base percentage (.285) in the Majors, along with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate. He'll close out Week 9 by getting a rematch with the Yankees, who tagged Turnbull with the loss on May 1 after he allowed four runs in five innings of work. If Turnbull can get the benefit of the Yankees splits against right-handers (.219/.319/.366) in this go-around, and if he can continue the momentum coming off the no-hitter, he looks to be a solid streaming option this week.

Justin Dunn, SEA - 4% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ OAK, vs TEX

In a lot of ways, Dunn is very similar to Gilbert this week. They've got the same matchups, they'll benefit from the same splits against Oakland and Texas, and they've both had some struggles early on this year. Unlike Gilbert however, Dunn has been showing some signs of improvement over his past few starts. After posting a 3.98 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings of work in April, Dunn has made three starts in May and has posted a 3.14 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.

Granted, two of those three starts in May have come against the Orioles and the Tigers, but Dunn has still shown improvement from his disastrous season-opening outing in which he allowed eight walks in 4 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Between Gilbert and Dunn, I'm going to give the slight edge in Week 9 to Dunn.

Austin Gomber, COL - 4% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ NYM, @ PIT

Gomber is easily the riskiest play this week thanks to his 11.2 percent walk rate this season. And while you would think pitching away from Coors Field would benefit him this week, he's actually pitched better at home this year (1.88 ERA, 1.186 WHIP) than on the road (6.39 ERA, 1.355 WHIP). But putting those splits aside, Gomber has been pretty solid in his last four starts — three of which have come on the road — posting a 3.22 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings of work.

He'll have a couple of solid matchups this week against the Mets and Pirates, as both teams have a strikeout rate around 23 percent, and have the 11th-worst and ninth-worst batting averages in the league respectively at .230 and .227. The Mets have hit slightly better against left-handed pitching this year, but the Pirates have struggled with southpaws to the tune of a .214/.296/.347 triple-slash line. I put him as a riskier play than Gilbert this week since Gilbert has the better matchups, but if you're looking for strikeouts and you're willing to take a potential hit to ERA, Gomber is a decent choice that will be available in virtually every league.

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