Week 10 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and am currently 26th out of 130 in 2018.

One can't regularly land in the top 25% of this field by accident and I absolutely think you should hold us accountable by objective measures such as this.  I know some "analysts" exist more for entertainment and Twitter stuff, but I'm here to win. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Week 10 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

With respect to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s low floor -- that is one of a turnover prone, aggressive style with a competent backup available to tag in at any time -- I still have him as my No. 5 QB compared to a No. 9 ECR. I can’t get away from him given Tampa Bay’s terrible run game and lackluster defense. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken isn’t gunshy and Fitzmagic’s yards per attempt easily paces all NFL QBs. I suspect his four-touchdown, two-interception Week 9 outcome is a good mold to chase, as mistakes will be made but in fantasy, we just care about the bottom line.

I also have Carson Wentz and Mitch Trubisky inside my top-10 against ECRs that places them at 11 and 13, respectively. I love the Eagles acquisition of Golden Tate for Wentz’s outlook and like Fitzpatrick, I’m not impressed by Philly’s ground game. The difference is their defense can actually play, but Wentz owns a minimal rushing advantage. Of course, Trubisky’s rushing advantage is probably the best in football and he’s getting Allen Robinson back. It’s also possible that Adam Shaheen returns to deepen the TE ranks. I love the way this team is trending.

Those I’m relatively down on are a triumvirate of quarterbacking greatness in our day: Drew Brees (8 vs. 4 ECR), Tom Brady (11 vs. 8) and Ben Roethlisberger (13 vs. 10). Since Mark Ingram’s return in Week 5, Brees and the Saints are one of three teams to run more than they pass (52%). Mix in some Taysom Hill and my range of outcomes for Brees has a cold chill to it.

Meanwhile, Mr. Brady is clicking with Josh Gordon (which I love!) and has steady Julian Edelman and James White, but I really think he misses prime Gronk. I also must note he’s averaging nearly a yard and a half less on his average pass attempt on the road versus at home. As for Big Ben, I’m merely indifferent towards him in a date with a tough Carolina defense. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in pace of play while Carolina is 23rd, so volume could also be an issue.

Week 10 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

It appears I like Nick Chubb (9 vs. 11) a bit more than the crowd, while Aaron Jones is three slots above the ECR at 13. Lower down I have Isaiah Crowell (+5) at 24 and Austin Ekeler (+5) at 25.

Chubb creeps into my top-10 thanks to his usage in new OC Freddie Kitchens’ offense. Yes, everyone is rightfully excited about the resurgence of Duke Johnson, but how about Chubb getting six red zone opportunities? Duke had two and not a single WR or TE saw one. Obviously, that will even out a bit, but I love Chubb’s chances at finding the end zone against Atlanta in Week 10 as Cleveland will surely try to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands.

Aaron Jones had his costly fumble and Jamaal Williams isn’t going anywhere, but a game against Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins gives Jones a decent shot at a multi-TD box score in my book. Usually buried and looking at 10 touches per game, Jones and the Pack are favored by nearly 10 points here and should be able to shove this game in Miami’s face throughout the second half.

I hate stumping for Crowell, but the Jets get a slight bump with Josh McCown taking snaps and I can see them grinding Buffalo down in a gritty divisional game with two subpar offenses. For the record, I like what Elijah McGuire is doing and 100% think he’s more talented than Crow, but Isaiah is still the RZ back here. And then Ekeler should benefit from the Chargers being 10-point road favorites over an Oakland defense that could be gashed by any 11 folks in RotoBaller’s chat room at the moment. The Raiders seemingly forgot how to tackle against San Francisco last week, which could be in true form come an Ekeler mop-up drive in the fourth quarter.

Those I don’t like as much are fairly easy fade candidates that I suppose I think need to have said fade emphasized further. I have Adrian Peterson at No. 18 (ECR: 14) thanks to an o-line in shambles and a quietly-tough matchup against a stout Tampa run line that owns the second-highest “Stuff rate” at 29.3% per FootballOutsiders and an adjusted line yards of 3.77, the fifth-lowest in the NFL. With Chris Thompson likely to return and Kapri Bibbs probably not going away entirely, I have a hard time trusting AP.

Then there’s Jordan Howard at No. 19 (ECR: 15), as I don’t bank on another two TDs to salvage his day and vault him into RB2 territory. And finally, we’ve got Mr. Peyton Barber (37 vs. 32 ECR) who I cannot talk myself into playing anywhere. Tampa Bay's defensive line may have a great adjusted line yards value, but their offensive line plays even better defense on their own RBs. The Bucs' 3.41 adjusted line yards is only better than the Giants (3.24) and their actual 3.37 yards per rush isn't far off (and is also second-worst, this time ahead of Arizona's 3.14). The point is that scene is incredibly ugly, but at least it makes Fitzpatrick and the passing offense that much better.

Week 10 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’d point to Christian Kirk (30 vs. 34 ECR) and D.J. Moore (38 vs. 43 ECR) as my real intrigue guys this week. I think Byron Leftwich’s offense has a good shot at giving Arizona’s offense some life (beyond Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson) and Kirk’s ability to make contested catches, as well as find space, will be needed since Arizona is 16-point dogs in Kansas City. As for Moore, I always love looking at hype trains that fizzled the next week. Moore actually paced all Carolina WRs with an 85% snap count in Week 9, but unorthodox TDs such as Curtis Samuel’s robbed Moore’s potential. The Panthers still got him involved with a nice reverse and I like him to be a factor against a tough Steelers defense.

Then you’ll find me lower on folks such as Tyrell Williams (-4), Golden Tate (-4), Mike Williams (-6) and Chris Godwin (-5). Tate is easy to explain, as I’m bearish for his first game as an Eagle. He never had to compete with a tight end like Zach Ertz over the middle in Detroit and I’m not aggressively ranking him out of the gate. And as for Godwin, I just don’t think he’s established enough to land in WR3 territory with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and now Adam Humphries around him.

Then there are the Williams Chargers, both of whom I dislike (again, relatively) for different reasons. Tyrell is still No. 32 for me so I’m not exactly calling for him to be sat, but my aforementioned love for Ekeler highlights the issue that I think LAC may be done passing -- certainly taking aggressive deep shots -- rather early. This also dampens Mike Williams, but he also suffers because of a low 29% snap count in Week 9. Perhaps that number will rebound but I have to react to it here.

Week 10 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I don’t really know what to do with Rob Gronkowski yet, so while my ranking of him at No. 5 looks positive compared to an ECR of 11, it’s more of a placeholder at the moment. Don’t read into it beyond respecting his TD potential should he be healthy in a lackluster TE field.

As for real commentary, I’ve got Jordan Reed at No. 6 (ECR: 12) and Benjamin Watson at 13 (ECR: 17). Reed gets to face the Bucs defense and I imagine he’ll come close to his 12 targets from two weeks ago here. Washington’s offensive line is battered and Alex Smith isn’t throwing it deep (nor can I trust a Maurice Harris takeover just yet), so I’m pegging Reed for roughly seven catches for 50 yards and a score. That game has an over/under of 52 at a couple of books in Vegas already and could be a fun one if Smith is backed into a corner by Fitzmagic.

Then there’s Watson, who has scored in two of his last three games and gets to play in the game that Vegas has slapped with the highest projected total at 55. I know The New Orleans Alvin Kamara’s are a run game and that I am relatively lower on Brees, but beyond the top tier of TE you are simply hunting touchdowns. TD hunters would be wise to target the games where points are flowing, and it doesn’t hurt that the Bengals have given up a 53-602-5 stat line to TEs -- “good” for a top-five composite TE rank.

I’m lower on Trey Burton (-3) and Evan Engram (-4) with the former being a bit eyebrow-raising and the latter probably shocking no one. Engram is the third option at best in a below-average offense that at least finds itself trailing often, but his own battles with drops take him down a notch and we just saw San Francisco hold Jared Cook to peanuts in Week 9.

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