RADIO
Time is a construct… whatever that means. But if constructs move fast, then time is definitely one of those! I say this because we are already over halfway done with the 2020 NFL season, and it doesn’t see real. After months and months of worrying about whether this season would even happen, we have been blessed with a full NFL schedule so far, with only a few COVID delays. We could not have realistically asked for a better start to the season than this, especially considering just how violent this sport is and how hard it is to get anything done in 2020... I mean, people can’t even buy toilet paper or a taco without risking their lives right now, and yet the NFL has pushed through ten weeks of men bleeding and sweating on each other without much delay. That’s both impressive and a bit consternating, isn’t it?
Anyways, putting the risks and marvels of this season aside, the fact is that we are heading into Week 11. That means we are hitting the turning point in every season where every fantasy manager can look honestly at their roster and know what their team is. You know if you are rebuilding, on the bubble, or if you are a true contender by now. You can look back and reflect on how you got to where you are now, and how you can get where you want to. And since this is a real time of reflection and consideration for you as fantasy managers, it should be a moment of reflection for fantasy writers as well.
In this spirit of reflection, looking both backward and forward, the next few Rotoballer IDP columns will be looking back at its pre-season predictions with a critical eye. We will consider where we were right, where we were wrong, and where our pre-season darlings should expect to go the rest of this season. Below you will see our first look-back attempt, as we attack my pre-season rankings for Rookie defenders in fantasy. You will also see an analysis of where I hit, where I missed, and where things are headed for the rest of the season. So without further ado, let’s get started! Oh, and please be kind, because history often isn’t.
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Pre-Season Rookie Defender Ranks
1. Chase Young, DL, Washington Football Team
I stand by this selection. Young was the best overall player in this rookie class, and he remains an elite edge rusher. He has been even better against the run than we could have hoped, and injuries are at least partially to blame for his low sack total.
The Ohio State product remains the best rookie defender in dynasty leagues and the highest ceiling rookie defender for the rest of 2020. There still isn’t a rookie defender I value more, though Jeremy Chinn and Patrick Queen are gaining on him.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 1
2. Patrick Queen, LB, Baltimore Ravens
This pick has panned out, as Queen is hands down the most productive rookie LB in fantasy so far. He is a weekly top-ten LB consideration in pretty much all formats and should continue to get better. He is a fantastic asset in dynasty and re-drafts.
As far as analyzing our rookie IDP rankings, I think we got this one right. The only qualm I have with this rank now is that Queen was ahead of Jeremy Chinn, who is DB eligible and thus more valuable in fantasy than even a very talented LB like Queen. Queen doesn’t drop far in our updated rookie ranks, moving from second to third overall.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 3
3. Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
This ranking is a miss for us, but it comes with an asterisk. In my pre-season ranks, I made it clear that Simmons was a boom-or-bust fantasy rookie for two reasons.
One reason Simmons could bust was the deep LB unit in Arizona. The fear was he may split snaps with four other talented players, and so far he has done that. He has a sub-30% snap rate in all of his games this year, which is a colossal disappointment for a guy taken in the top-ten picks of the NFL Draft.
The second reason I had Simmons as a boom-or-bust fantasy asset was the fact he could or could not earn DB eligibility as a rookie. Given Simmons’ history of playing in the secondary at Clemson and the depth at LB in Arizona, it seemed a possibility Simmons could split time with Chris Banjo in Arizona’s secondary. If he had earned DB eligibility, Simmons’ fantasy stock would have risen. He hasn’t earned that eligibility, however.
With both of the worst case scenarios happening with Simmons so far (a sub-30% snap rate and no DB eligibility), he has firmly settled in as a 2020 bust. While he is still a fine dynasty asset thanks to his innate talent, the hope that he will be a contributor this year is dwindling.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: Outside of the Top-Ten
4. Jeremy Chinn, DB, Carolina Panthers
As you know by now, I have been very high on Chinn ever since the pre-draft process back in January. I banged the table for him all off-season, and I was actually drafting him ahead of Simmons by the end of August. My faith has been rewarded so far, as Chinn has proven to be that very rare rookie capable of being a reliable fantasy DB. He is an IDP starter for pretty much everyone, whether you are in a re-draft or dynasty league.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 2
5. Kenneth Murray, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Murray has been a mixed bag so far. We had him pegged as a safe rookie LB because he was a punishing and athletic run stuffer at Oklahoma. That skillset usually translates well, and quickly, to the NFL and the fantasy game.
The good news is that Murray has proven himself capable of being a capable IDP starter in tackle-premium IDP leagues, thanks in large part to that downhill tackling ability we mentioned above. The bad news is that he has a relatively low floor and ceiling in fantasy this year.
So far, Murray has put up three weeks of starter quality stats. That's good. The bad news is he hasn't logged any turnovers or sacks, and his past three games have all been bench worthy. He can be dropped in most re-draft formats, but he is still worth keeping in Deep Defense and deeper dynasty setups.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 7
6. Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
The thought here was two-fold. First, the Bengals took Wilson at the top of the third round in this year's draft. They selected him over well-regarded talents at offensive tackle (Josh Jones), center (Matt Hennessy), edge rusher (Zack Baun and Terrell Lewis), and interior defensive line (Jordan Elliott and Neville Gallimore), despite having needs at each of these positions. That indicated the team loved what they saw in Wilson.
The second reason we liked Wilson was that he appeared to be an improvement over what the Bengals had at two of their LB positions. That spelled an excellent opportunity for the Wyoming product.
So far, Wilson hasn't panned out as a fantasy asset, playing in less than 50% of the team's defensive snaps all season. All is not lost for the rookie, however. Over the past two weeks, Wilson has matched his season-high in snaps played (48%) twice in a row. Even better, he has proven himself the best coverage LB in Cincinnati so far. Expect his snaps to go up at some point, and if he can get above the 80% threshold, he will be a real worthwhile asset.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: Outside of the Top-Ten
7. Kyle Dugger, DB, New England Patriots
Like Isaiah Simmons before him, Dugger was considered a boom-or-bust option in our pre-season rookie ranks. The hope was that Dugger would be used as a chess piece, playing half his time at LB (and cleaning up on tackles) while maintaining the coveted DB eligibility. There was definite risk he wouldn’t get the playing time he needed to start for most fantasy teams, though.
So far, Dugger’s performance and role in New England's defense has panned out how we hoped, but his usage has been as limited as we feared. Before Week 10, Dugger hadn't seen more than 54% of New England's defensive snaps in any game. That changed this past weekend, however.
Against the Ravens, Dugger saw a whopping 85% of the Patriots' defensive snaps. A majority of those plays came at the LB, as we had hoped they would. Playing from that LB position, the small school rookie collected 12 total tackles, and he earned the praise of Coach Belichick… which rarely ever happens.
If Belichick’s public praise of this rookie is any indication (it usually is), we should expect Dugger to continue to get more playing time the rest of this season. He is worth stashing in most IDP leagues, given his potential to be a high-floor DB option the rest of the way.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 6
8. Antoine Winfield Jr., DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We were too low on Winfield Jr. in the pre-season. My initial concern was that Winfield Jr. would be eased into Tampa’s defense and that he would split time/stats in a talented secondary. That fear was unfounded, as the NFL legacy has played on over 90% of Tampa’s snaps in every game so far. I should have trusted the tape on this kid, and not worried so much about Bruce Arians’ history of fickle player usage.
The verdict on this is that we were right to have Winfield Jr. in our top-ten, but I was still too low on him. He is easily a top-15 fantasy DB in re-draft leagues, and a top-ten option in dynasty.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 4
9. Willie Gay Jr., LB, Kansas City Chiefs
Gay Jr. was a troubled but talented rookie coming out of Mississippi State this year, but the hope was his pure talent would earn him a lot of playing time early for an uninspiring Chiefs LB unit.
So far, our hopes for Gay Jr. have not panned out. The LB position is so deep that you don't need to stash a rookie who is playing as little as Gay Jr. is, unless you play in a very deep dynasty leagues. He is droppable in almost all re-draft formats, and thus he is a slight disappointment based on where he sat in our pre-season rookie ranks.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: Outside of the Top-Ten
10. Javon Kinlaw, DT, San Francisco 49ers
Kinlaw remains just what we thought he would be coming into this season. He is a raw but talented pass rusher capable of helping in the run game immediately. He was always a long-term fantasy asset more than a short-term one.
With that said, the South Carolina product has gotten more playing time than we expected this season due to the injuries to Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, and others. Those injuries may have helped Kinlaw’s snap count, but they likely hurt his sack totals. Without Bosa and others taking the heat, Kinlaw has proven a slight fantasy disappointment this year. Look for him to rebound next year as a start-worthy dynasty DT.
Updated Rest of Season Rookie Rank: 10
IDP Settings
If you skipped my weekly rant, as many of you do, then you made a wise choice! You skipped the ramblings of a madman and now get to drink the nectars of his sweet, sweet brain! And you’ll likely notice that those nectars taste an awful lot like our waiver rankings for this week!
As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:
- Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
- Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
- Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
- Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.
Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.
IDP Waiver Adds of the Week
1. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Miami Dolphins
Forgive me if this is a fairly obvious one, but Ogbah sits tied for fourth in the NFL in sacks, and yet he is rostered in less than 22% of IDP leagues. That is a gross oversight, especially when you consider that Ogbah’s uptick in sack production appears to be legitimate. The former Brown has 40 total pressures on the season, indicating he is getting consistent and reliable pressure. He should be rostered in every format, except for shallow leagues that deeply discount sacks.
- Standard FAAB: 1%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 3%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: Wait
2. Romeo Okwara, DL, Detroit Lions
Okwara was on our deep waiver adds list last week, and then he added another sack to his total. The guy is 1.5 sacks away from his career-high right now, with seven games left to play. He is regularly getting terrific push into the pocket, getting pressure when he doesn't get sacks. He is looking like a DL2 for the rest of this season, yet he is only rostered in 7% of leagues. He is young enough to add in dynasty setups, as well. The only format Okwara could reasonably still qualify for waivers is your Standard IDP leagues with ten teams or less.
- Defense Premium FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: Wait
3. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, DB, New Orleans Saints
This may seem fairly obvious to some, but Gardner-Johnson is rostered in just over 4% of IDP leagues right now. That’s low, considering the former Florida Gator has five different games with six or more tackles this season. The guy has a lot of upside as a pass rusher, too. His blitz usage went up against the 49ers, resulting in a sack and three QB hits. That’s promising usage for those playing in sack and TFL premium formats. He is a worthy add in all 12-team or larger leagues.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: 1%
4. Trey Hendrickson, DL, New Orleans Saints
Hendrickson disappointed this past weekend against the 49ers, as did most Saints not named Alvin Kamara. That wasn’t the only time he has disappointed either, as the FAU alum has put up duds in three of his nine games this season. That’s the life of most pass rushers in the NFL, though.
As we said last week, Hendrickson has at least one sack in six different games this season. That’s valuable production for a guy who is rostered in only 3% of fantasy leagues. He is worth considering in all 14-team leagues, in all Deep Defense, and Defense Premium formats.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: 1%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
- Dynasty FAAB: Wait
5. Kyle Dugger, DB, New England Patriots
We already covered most of what we need to on Dugger in our notes above. He finally got serious playing time this past week, and he answered that boost in playing time with 12 total tackles. More importantly, that performance was enough to earn praise from the infinitely hard to please Bill Belichick, who gave the rookie several compliments after the game.
Dugger could be a bargain IDP add at this late stage of the season. It's fair to pick him up and bench him for another week to see if he keeps getting the playing time he did in Week 10, but the Lenoir-Rhyne alum has the potential to be a top-ten DB if he continues getting 80% of the Patriots’ LB snaps. If you can afford to stash him and see if his playing time continues to grow, do so in all formats.
- Standard FAAB: 1%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: 2%
6. Kerry Hyder Jr., DL, San Francisco 49ers
Even 49ers fans didn't know much about Hyder Jr. before this year, and yet he has at least a half-sack or nine tackles in seven of his ten games this year. His playing time is staying steady around the 70% mark so far, and with Arik Armstead now injured, that total could go up. If the 49ers get Richard Sherman back from injury soon, that can only help their pass rush, too. Hyder is worth adding in Deep Defense and 14-team re-draft leagues.
- Standard League FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
7. Christian Kirksey, LB, Green Bay Packers
Kirksey made this list early in the season, and then he went down with an injury that robbed him of a majority of this season. So it’s understandable why his roster rate has dipped below the 15% threshold. Kirksey should be rostered in more leagues than that if he is healthy, though, and he appears to be healthy again.
Kirksey came back against Jacksonville and played 100% of the snaps. It seems hard to imagine the Packers would give him that level of usage if they didn’t feel confident that he was fully recovered and healthy. Remember that when this guy was healthy, he totaled 12 tackles in each of his first two games this season. He has the potential to do so again. He is a solid re-draft addition in 12-team formats.
- Standard Defense FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
8. Germaine Pratt, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
While our hopes of Logan Wilson ascending for the Bengals this year may be dashed (even if he has made some big plays against the pass), Pratt has been a steady contributor in Cincinnati for most of this year. Pratt has five games with at least six tackles this year, and he has a nice schedule ahead with solid fantasy matchups against Washington, the Giants, and the Dolphins. He is worth adding in deep leagues that value tackles and devalues big plays. He isn’t a priority add in most leagues but could be a solid streamer over the next three weeks in deeper setups.
- Deep Defense FAAB: Wait
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