Week 13 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Hello and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings in the spotlight and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). I'm currently ninth overall out of 130 rankers on FantasyPros after finishing ninth for the 2017 season, so I'd like to think I've earned some street cred here. #Consistency.

You take the time to read our articles and make decisions informed by our analysis, so why wouldn't you check how we're doing? Some advice may come in very entertaining packages, but that doesn't make it good. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Week 13 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Those of you seeking out a boost at QB should target Mitch Trubisky (My Rank: 12, ECR: 19) if he’s active and Dak Prescott (13 vs. 16). Simply put, I'm a sucker for mobile QBs. That rushing floor is so juicy, and while Dak doesn't run as much as Trubs has, Prescott has tallied five rushing TDs in his last six contests. Mm-mm good! And it can't be overstated how valuable Amari Cooper is to Dak and the Cowboys, as having a receiver that can turn your pass into a long TD does quite a bit for one's ceiling. Digging deeper, Case Keenum (19 vs. 22) and Josh Allen (22 vs. 27) are decent streamers. Keenum gets the hapless Bengals defense and Allen’s rushing potential is worthy of serious 2QB consideration.

Those on the downswing are Philip Rivers (15 vs. 12) and Carson Wentz (18 vs. 14). Rivers is almost sure to be without stud RB Melvin Gordon and will need to do the heavy lifting Sunday night in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense is legitimate, with Joe Haden especially looking good since joining them, and a road date against them without a big rushing threat is a bad look. At least it isn't a 1PM start?

Then there’s Wentz, who has plenty of help around him but simply looks lost on the field. We've discussed before how Philly’s offensive coordinator is openly lamenting the Golden Tate trade, yet Tate continues to lead the team in targets. Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole with such frequency explains much of Wentz and the Eagles’ struggles. If I knew they would go back to a healthy diet of Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery then we wouldn't be having this conversation. Plus, as we'll get to in a moment, their best offensive weapon is a big favorite of mine to steal work.

Week 13 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Josh Adams (17 vs. 20) fought through a first-half injury to still make good on his buzz against a hapless Giants run defense that is worthy of its own hour-long comedy special. Despite missing time, Adams led the Eagles with 40 snaps (62%) compared to 55% in Week 11 and 31% in Week 10. He put up 84 yards and a tuddy on the scoreboard while Wendell Smallwood played just one snap. Corey Clement looked good in relief of Adams, but at least this RB stable is down to two with Adams being the clear 1A to deploy.

Hey, remember the Giants comedy tour? Well, the Bears are next guests with front-row seats to the show. Even though Jordan Howard (24 vs. 32) is on his last strike in his final at-bat in 2018, he’s about to get a Giant meatball down the middle. It may feel like he’s no longer in the gameplan, but he’s still topped 60% of their snaps in each of the last two games. If Trubisky plays then I’m plugging Howard in.

Where there’s light, there’s also darkness. I’m also three-to-four spots lower on Dion Lewis, Adrian Peterson and James White. Lewis only outsnapped Derrick Henry 29-to-27 in Week 12 and has 89 rush yards on 37 carries and a 10-52-0 receiving line in the last three weeks. Marcus Mariota is finally elevating Corey Davis and we're also seeing Jonnu Smith take a couple steps forward, but Tennessee's run game is truly maddening right now. You hand it off to the backup TE on a dive play on fourth down? Why?

Peterson is faltering behind a patchwork Washington offensive line as Father Time catches up with him in the later weeks of the season, but he also failed to log a red-zone opportunity for the first time last week (Kapri Bibbs saw all three). White may be wearing down under heavier usage, but this is largely about Rex Burkhead coming back. Burkhead is versatile but plays better as a passing-down back rather than between-the-tackles banger, so I believe Sony Michel is rather safe and White could be scaled back.

Week 13 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’m surprised to see Robert Woods (8 vs. 12) so low, but I suppose he vies with Adam Thielen for most underrated star WR. I should also note my love for Adam Humphries (31 vs. 38). Deeper down, I also need to mention Marcell Ateman (61 vs. 76), Trey Quinn (63 vs. 82) and Equanimeous St. Brown (67 vs. 86).

Woods is feasting out of the Rams’ slot and saw a team-high five red-zone opportunities in Week 11’s shootout with the Chiefs. His 90 targets lead one of the most potent teams in the NFL, so you’ve got a trusted set of hands running high-percentage routes and garnering lots of RZ targets. Check, please!

Then there’s Humphries, who has shown chemistry with Jameis Winston over the years and also has 40 targets in his last six games. Much of those were Ryan Fitzpatrick targets, but my optimism lies in the new Winston that focused on short-to-intermediate passes rather than going for the home-run ball. With DeSean Jackson falling out of favor and never looking right with Winston at QB, I’ll take Humphries as a square WR3 in standard and PPR alike.

In Raiderland, Marcell Ateman tallied a whopping 10 targets in Week 12, but caught only three for 16 yards. The man is six-foot-five and may surprise us if Derek Carr can throw the ball a bit more true as Oakland sees what it has in Ateman rather than grind the low ceilings of Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts.

And how about Quinn, who is worthy of starting simply due to his doing “The Scarn” as a TD celebration on Thanksgiving, but also caught five-of-six Colt McCoy targets as Washington scrambles for a spark. He’ll fall by the wayside if Jamison Crowder returns over the middle, but for now Quinn is a quiet PPR play. And while the hype grows for Jake Kumerow in Green Bay, I think MVS is ready to rebound against Arizona’s poor slot DBs (whether Budda Baker plays or Leonard Johnson attempts to is another thing).

On the other side lies pessimism for Jarvis Landry (38 vs. 28), David Moore (44 vs. 36) and the aforementioned Golden Tate (47 vs. 37). New Browns OC Freddie Kitchens isn’t featuring Landry and is seeing fantastic results, with the more valuable downfield targets going to David Njoku, Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins. And once Cleveland’s in the red zone then it’s all about the RBs. Over their past three games, Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson have combined for 18 RZ opps. All WRs have combined for three (Landry has one) while the TEs have two. So I’ll be passing on Landry, just as Cleveland is.

The past five weeks have seen Seattle pass just 48% of the time, standing as one of three teams under 50%. Moore is a boss, but is a better dynasty asset than redraft flex play and his average of six targets per game in that five-week window makes him mighty TD-dependent. As such, I can’t make him a low-end WR3 just yet. And with Tate, I just have no belief in Philadelphia to scheme for him. The WR screens are halfhearted so his leading in targets feels like empty calories.

Week 13 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I know more Oakland hurts, but Jared Cook (6 vs. 9) remains the best bet for a touchdown through the air. He caught one last week and while I love Ateman seeing 10 targets, Cook is still their most athletic receiving option in a game where they're 15-point underdogs. Fantasy players also need to quickly catch up with Matt LaCosse (15 vs. 20), the six-foot-six tight end ready to enter Denver’s starting lineup with Jeff Heuerman joining Jake Butt on the IR. LaCosse caught his first career TD in Week 12 and now faces a Bengals defense that gives up fantasy points like a balloon on Free Balloon Day. Cincinnati’s cover safety, Shawn Williams, has an ugly 54.1 PFF grade and I don’t expect that to improve in Week 13.

Those I’m down on are Kyle Rudolph (17 vs. 14), C.J. Uzomah (21 vs. 18) and Benjamin Watson (29 vs. 21). I was surprised to see Rudolph catch seven balls for 63 yards in Week 12 since he hadn’t topped 60 yards since Week 2, but he’s now gone eight games without a TD and averages roughly five targets a game. You want me to trust middling targets and no red-zone production? I know the Patriots have been generous to opposing TEs in 2018, but Eric Ebron (9-105-2) and Trey Burton (9-126-1) are a bit sprier than Mr. Rudolph.

Uzomah will benefit if A.J. Green returns to the lineup and helps drag Jeff Driskel and company to paydirt, but we also have to account for the Hue Jackson “bonus” and that Uzomah has totaled 103 yards over his last four games despite seeing 26 targets, including a season-high 13 in Week 12 (6-39-0). Plus, if Green returns then we have to downgrade Uzomah’s target share. Uzomah is TD-dependent with a backup QB on a team that Vegas has given just 19.5 implied points at home (+5, 44 O/U). Oy vey.

And finally, Watson’s last five games have seen him command just eight targets. Josh Hill has just as many in that span and Dan Arnold has 12, which is a red alert in my eyes. The trend can be seen in Watson’s snap counts, where he’s sat at 80% in Weeks 1 and 2, only to fall to ~50% in Weeks 3-6 and he’s been fighting to stay above 30% ever since. Arnold has some intrigue, but Watson is outside the circle of trust due to this.

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