Week 15 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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5. More Fantasy Football Analysis

A weird week this week with two Saturday games. If you are reading this on Saturday then make sure you have those lineups set. Thursday Night Football was incredible but for DFS purposes it has taken away a lot of talent. For season long leagues you may already have a good shot of making your finals if you were brave enough to start Mike Williams or Damien Williams. If so congratulations and I hope nothing derails that for you Sunday. We have some great matchups this week and it should be a fun week of football. Hopefully the information below helps you set the optimal lineup to make it to the final week of your leagues!

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	13	357.5	27.5	7.12	20.38	34.62	0.26	133.7
2	Philip Rivers	13	250.12	19.24	3.81	15.43	23.05	0.2	116.33
3	Cam Newton	13	273.86	21.07	5.7	15.36	26.77	0.27	98.86
4	Aaron Rodgers	13	259.2	19.94	5.36	14.58	25.29	0.27	94.16
5	Andrew Luck	13	270.16	20.78	6.57	14.21	27.35	0.32	86.55
6	Ben Roethlisberger	13	282.48	21.73	7.45	14.28	29.18	0.34	85.12
7	Russell Wilson	13	246.12	18.93	5.89	13.05	24.82	0.31	79.83
8	Matt Ryan	13	285.1	21.93	8.32	13.61	30.25	0.38	79.75
9	Tom Brady	13	239.5	18.42	5.97	12.45	24.39	0.32	75.28
10	Baker Mayfield	11	181.98	16.54	5.32	11.22	21.87	0.32	67.95
11	Dak Prescott	13	239.5	18.42	6.93	11.5	25.35	0.38	67.42
12	Deshaun Watson	13	254.92	19.61	8.15	11.46	27.76	0.42	66.77
13	Carson Wentz	11	202.26	18.39	7.02	11.37	25.41	0.38	66.56
14	Drew Brees	13	281.02	21.62	10.58	11.04	32.2	0.49	65.79
15	Eli Manning	13	196.2	15.09	4.55	10.54	19.65	0.3	65.1
16	Kirk Cousins	13	242.72	18.67	7.65	11.02	26.32	0.41	64.22
17	Alex Smith	10	140	14	4.01	9.99	18.01	0.29	62.92
18	Jameis Winston	8	148.76	18.6	8.02	10.57	26.62	0.43	61.7
19	Joe Flacco	9	139.22	15.47	5.51	9.96	20.98	0.36	58.91
20	CJ Beathard	5	80.98	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
21	Nick Mullens	5	81.96	16.39	6.6	9.79	23	0.4	57.07
22	Jimmy Garoppolo	3	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick	8	165.84	20.73	12.47	8.26	33.2	0.6	55.2
24	Jared Goff	13	258.46	19.88	11.47	8.42	31.35	0.58	54.36
25	Andy Dalton	11	174.54	15.87	6.66	9.21	22.52	0.42	53.7
26	Mitchell Trubisky	11	219.76	19.98	12.63	7.35	32.61	0.63	51.57
27	Case Keenum	13	178.06	13.7	5	8.7	18.69	0.36	51.24
28	Derek Carr	13	204.36	15.72	7.66	8.06	23.38	0.49	48
29	Ryan Tannehill	8	126.42	15.8	7.82	7.98	23.62	0.49	47.74
30	Matthew Stafford	13	184.78	14.21	6.39	7.83	20.6	0.45	45.85

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 14 games from largest to smallest. As always I do not have a huge amount to say about the quarterback position. If you are in the playoffs in yearly leagues then you likely have the guy you trust and it is unlikely you are taking a chance streaming elsewhere, as I found out on twitter last week.

The Thursday game saw a face off of our two most consistent quarterbacks which is a pain if you are playing the main slate this week. The two Saturdays games are also taking away the 10th and 12th most consistent guys, adding to that pain a little. However, there are some other top-10 guys who could be in for a big week. Roethlisberger, Brady and Wilson all have great matchups and should be safe starts for your fantasy lineups.

However, if you have Newton, Rodgers, Luck or Ryan you may have concerns about their matchups. If so you are then looking deeper for value and it does not get much prettier. Prescott's matchup is reasonably tough, Wentz may be done for the year, Manning is facing a decent Titans defense and Winston faces a superb Ravens defense. The best of that group is probably Prescott as the Colts defense can be hit-or-miss.

Cousins has been a polarising figure this season and his 16th ranking here shows why. It has been hard to trust him and now he loses his offensive coordinator. However, that nay be a bonus as it may change the offensive philosophy a little. If so we may see the Vikings run the ball more which should buy Cousins more time in the passing game and with that offensive line that is exactly what he needs. He should be a consideration for streaming this week against Miami at home.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Melvin Gordon	10	247.5	24.75	5.76	18.99	30.51	0.23	131.04
2	Saquon Barkley	13	332.3	25.56	7.09	18.47	32.65	0.28	117.75
3	Todd Gurley	13	334.7	25.75	8.09	17.66	33.83	0.31	107.72
4	Christian McCaffrey	13	326.7	25.13	9.9	15.23	35.03	0.39	88.92
5	Ezekiel Elliott	13	299.5	23.04	8.51	14.53	31.55	0.37	85.4
6	James Conner	12	267.6	22.3	10.72	11.58	33.02	0.48	68.68
7	Alvin Kamara	13	298.4	22.95	11.55	11.4	34.5	0.5	68.57
8	Kareem Hunt	11	231.2	21.02	9.85	11.17	30.87	0.47	65.87
9	Joe Mixon	11	196.9	17.9	7.04	10.86	24.94	0.39	63.39
10	James White	13	239.6	18.43	8.96	9.47	27.39	0.49	56.36
11	Phillip Lindsay	13	206.7	15.9	6.96	8.94	22.86	0.44	52.22
12	Alex Collins	10	115.6	11.56	3.5	8.06	15.06	0.3	49.75
13	Marshawn Lynch	6	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
14	David Johnson	13	206.1	15.85	7.86	8	23.71	0.5	47.84
15	Kerryon Johnson	10	142.4	14.24	6.2	8.04	20.44	0.44	46.94
16	Lamar Miller	12	162.2	13.52	5.58	7.93	19.1	0.41	46.23
17	Aaron Jones	11	172.7	15.7	8.67	7.03	24.37	0.55	44.13
18	Devonta Freeman	2	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
19	Tarik Cohen	13	209.3	16.1	9.82	6.28	25.92	0.61	42.5
20	Darren Sproles	3	28	9.33	2.87	6.46	12.21	0.31	39.66
21	Leonard Fournette	6	94.9	15.82	10.59	5.22	26.41	0.67	39.43
22	Theo Riddick	11	102	9.27	2.9	6.38	12.17	0.31	38.96
23	TJ Yeldon	13	175	13.46	7.28	6.18	20.75	0.54	38.34
24	Dalvin Cook	8	102.9	12.86	6.51	6.35	19.37	0.51	38.27
25	Kenyan Drake	13	181.9	13.99	8.33	5.67	22.32	0.6	37.51
26	Chris Carson	11	135.1	12.28	6	6.28	18.29	0.49	37.4
27	Mark Ingram	9	117.5	13.06	7.97	5.08	21.03	0.61	34.43
28	Austin Ekeler	13	161	12.38	7.01	5.37	19.4	0.57	34.26
29	Adrian Peterson	13	171.2	13.17	8.23	4.94	21.4	0.62	34.24
30	Kenneth Dixon	3	30.7	10.23	4.85	5.38	15.09	0.47	31.82
31	Jay Ajayi	4	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
32	Tevin Coleman	13	155.6	11.97	7.46	4.51	19.43	0.62	31.17
33	Marlon Mack	9	119.6	13.29	9.96	3.32	23.25	0.75	31.01
34	Jeff Wilson	3	37.1	12.37	8.29	4.07	20.66	0.67	30.81
35	Matt Breida	12	146.3	12.19	8.1	4.09	20.29	0.66	30.54
36	Jalen Richard	13	129.1	9.93	5	4.93	14.93	0.5	29.64
37	Jordan Howard	13	128.1	9.85	4.99	4.86	14.85	0.51	29.3
38	Dion Lewis	13	144.5	11.12	6.94	4.18	18.05	0.62	28.93
39	Nick Chubb	13	169	13	11.49	1.51	24.49	0.88	27.71
40	Sony Michel	10	112.6	11.26	7.86	3.4	19.12	0.7	27.39
41	Nyheim Hines	13	131.3	10.1	6.64	3.46	16.74	0.66	25.46
42	Isaiah Crowell	13	142.7	10.98	8.46	2.52	19.44	0.77	25.22
43	Chris Thompson	7	78.1	11.16	9.01	2.15	20.17	0.81	24.97
44	Bilal Powell	7	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
45	Peyton Barber	13	121	9.31	5.93	3.38	15.24	0.64	23.92
46	Ito Smith	12	91.8	7.65	3.64	4.01	11.29	0.48	23.71
47	Frank Gore	13	101.2	7.78	3.94	3.85	11.72	0.51	23.17
48	Derrick Henry	13	145	11.15	11.89	-0.73	23.04	1.07	21.62
49	Royce Freeman	11	81.1	7.37	3.9	3.47	11.27	0.53	21.31
50	Javorius Allen	11	95.7	8.7	6.03	2.67	14.73	0.69	21.26

At this stage in the season the running back position is a little all over the place. It has become clear in recent weeks that sometimes the best thing for a running game can be some fresh legs. We have seen many of the guys at the top of this list stutter a little bit over the past few weeks and that has been a concern. However, everyone currently active in the top-10 is hard to ignore from a starting perspective.

On the injury front we will hopefully see James Conner back this week against a Patriots defense that looks putrid against the run. Even so I would still start Jaylen Samuels this week because we saw plenty of running backs have success for Miami last week. Breida could also return this week for the 49ers against a Seattle defense who have had trouble at times against running backs. I still think there is a chance he leaves the game at some point, if active, so Wilson will have value in those deeper leagues.

Hopefully we can also see Lamar Miller have success on the ground against the Jets. Miller has had some fantastic games this season but last week we saw the Colts key in on the run and ask the Texans passing game to beat them. It will be interesting to see if that is going to be a trend going forward.

Finally, it will be intriguing to see what happens on the Titans offense after Henry's big game last week. He has been in a time share all season with Lewis, but Henry has looked better in the majority of games I have watched this season. After his big breakout it would be good to see him get 15-20 touches this week.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Davante Adams	13	283.6	21.82	5.55	16.26	27.37	0.25	107.56
2	Adam Thielen	13	284.4	21.88	6.92	14.96	28.8	0.32	91.03
3	Antonio Brown	13	264.3	20.33	6.21	14.12	26.54	0.31	86.87
4	Julian Edelman	9	153.4	17.04	4.33	12.72	21.37	0.25	84.18
5	DeAndre Hopkins	13	257.4	19.8	6.19	13.61	25.99	0.31	83.17
6	Julio Jones	13	271	20.85	7.97	12.88	28.81	0.38	75.39
7	Odell Beckham Jr	12	223.1	18.59	6.86	11.73	25.45	0.37	69
8	Keenan Allen	13	238.9	18.38	7	11.37	25.38	0.38	66.6
9	Robert Woods	13	218.4	16.8	6.33	10.47	23.13	0.38	61.41
10	Michael Thomas	13	273.8	21.06	11.17	9.89	32.23	0.53	60.76
11	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13	251.7	19.36	9.3	10.06	28.66	0.48	59.66
12	Tyreek Hill	13	281.2	21.63	12.65	8.98	34.28	0.58	58.61
13	Stefon Diggs	12	226.8	18.9	9.42	9.48	28.32	0.5	56.81
14	Tyler Lockett	13	184	14.15	4.78	9.37	18.94	0.34	56.04
15	AJ Green	9	158.4	17.6	8.17	9.43	25.77	0.46	55.5
16	Brandin Cooks	12	199.9	16.66	7.2	9.45	23.86	0.43	55.18
17	TY Hilton	11	196.6	17.87	8.91	8.96	26.78	0.5	53.73
18	Emmanuel Sanders	12	194.1	16.18	7.27	8.9	23.45	0.45	52.15
19	Mike Evans	13	224.7	17.28	8.81	8.48	26.09	0.51	51.2
20	Trey Quinn	2	22.5	11.25	3.32	7.93	14.57	0.3	49.33
21	Tyler Boyd	13	208.3	16.02	8.16	7.87	24.18	0.51	47.5
22	Cooper Kupp	8	135.1	16.89	10.49	6.4	27.38	0.62	44.07
23	Josh Gordon	11	138.8	12.62	5.1	7.52	17.72	0.4	43.85
24	Will Fuller	7	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
25	Curtis Samuel	9	109	12.11	4.69	7.42	16.8	0.39	43.39
26	Willie Snead	12	124.1	10.34	3.32	7.02	13.66	0.32	42.59
27	Jarvis Landry	13	182.4	14.03	7.98	6.05	22.01	0.57	38.71
28	Geronimo Allison	5	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
29	Kenny Golladay	13	173.7	13.36	7.54	5.82	20.9	0.56	37.04
30	DeSean Jackson	11	150.5	13.68	8.04	5.64	21.72	0.59	36.96
31	Marvin Jones	9	116.8	12.98	7.51	5.47	20.49	0.58	35.4
32	Brandon LaFell	4	37.5	9.38	3.38	5.99	12.76	0.36	35.35
33	Golden Tate	12	163	13.58	8.79	4.79	22.37	0.65	34.57
34	Alshon Jeffery	10	136.2	13.62	8.86	4.76	22.48	0.65	34.56
35	Cameron Meredith	3	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
36	Marcell Ateman	4	30.7	7.68	2.23	5.44	9.91	0.29	34.06
37	Amari Cooper	12	197	16.42	15.49	0.93	31.9	0.94	33.82
38	Dede Westbrook	13	154.1	11.85	6.4	5.45	18.25	0.54	33.81
39	Mohamed Sanu	13	132.9	10.22	4.43	5.79	14.66	0.43	33.79
40	Chris Godwin	13	149.9	11.53	6.26	5.27	17.79	0.54	32.77
41	Adam Humphries	13	156.9	12.07	7.07	5	19.13	0.59	32.69
42	Allen Robinson	11	135.5	12.32	7.62	4.7	19.94	0.62	32.23
43	Isaiah McKenzie	4	41	10.25	4.79	5.46	15.04	0.47	32.21
44	Rashad Greene	4	7.8	1.95	0.13	1.82	2.08	0.07	31.4
45	Jamison Crowder	6	59.7	9.95	4.62	5.33	14.57	0.46	31.38
46	Christian Kirk	12	126.5	10.54	5.35	5.19	15.89	0.51	31.3
47	Andy Jones	2	2.9	1.45	0.07	1.38	1.52	0.05	31.18
48	Larry Fitzgerald	13	142.3	10.95	5.98	4.97	16.93	0.55	30.98
49	Sterling Shepard	13	149.2	11.48	6.88	4.59	18.36	0.6	30.62
50	Corey Davis	13	163.9	12.61	8.84	3.76	21.45	0.7	30.58

Any of the top 20 who are on the field this weekend are a virtual must-start at this stage of the season. Beyond that Tyler Boyd should have a nice matchup this week, while Josh Gordon could draw the attention of Joe Haden and could be frozen out a little because of it. Jarvis Landry had a monster game last week and I would love to see the Browns keep finding ways to get the ball in his hands so he can do what he does best and make plays.

Amari Cooper would be a lot higher in these rankings if we simply excluded his time in Oakland. Cooper has been a monster since arriving in Dallas and I do not expect that to end this week, given the lack of other reliable pass catchers. Kenny Golladay is the only safe pair of hands for the Lions and should be able to put up decent numbers despite a really tough matchup.

The Eagles guys have all gone from having a really nice matchup against a Rams defense that has been giving up chunk plays to players you simply cannot trust. When Nick Foles took over at the end of last season it took a number of weeks before that offense started to show any signs of life. The situation this year is a little diffrent but we have already seen the Foles show this season and it was not pretty.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Travis Kelce	13	261.9	20.15	10.2	9.95	30.34	0.51	59.94
2	Zach Ertz	13	237.6	18.28	9.53	8.75	27.81	0.52	53.33
3	George Kittle	13	206.3	15.87	8.1	7.77	23.97	0.51	46.97
4	Eric Ebron	13	199.4	15.34	7.57	7.77	22.91	0.49	46.42
5	Hakeem Valles	2	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
6	Jared Cook	13	179.5	13.81	8.9	4.9	22.71	0.64	35.22
7	OJ Howard	10	124.5	12.45	6.99	5.46	19.44	0.56	34.62
8	Jordan Reed	12	123.8	10.32	4.42	5.9	14.73	0.43	34.42
9	Rob Gronkowski	10	124.7	12.47	7.47	5	19.94	0.6	33.29
10	Jack Doyle	6	62.5	10.42	5.33	5.09	15.75	0.51	30.78
11	Austin Hooper	13	144.7	11.13	6.51	4.62	17.65	0.59	30.15
12	Tyler Eifert	4	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
13	Vance McDonald	12	112.9	9.41	5.3	4.11	14.71	0.56	26.11
14	Kyle Rudolph	13	110	8.46	4.09	4.37	12.55	0.48	25.96
15	Evan Engram	8	73.4	9.18	5.52	3.65	14.7	0.6	24.42
16	Greg Olsen	9	83.1	9.23	5.66	3.58	14.89	0.61	24.3
17	Geoff Swaim	8	56.2	7.03	3.11	3.92	10.13	0.44	22.92
18	Lee Smith	5	28.2	5.64	1.89	3.75	7.53	0.34	22.46
19	Jimmy Graham	13	112.9	8.68	5.58	3.11	14.26	0.64	22.21
20	Mark Andrews	12	76.4	6.37	2.6	3.77	8.96	0.41	21.97
21	David Njoku	13	114.4	8.8	6.04	2.76	14.84	0.69	21.62
22	Trey Burton	13	119	9.15	7.77	1.38	16.93	0.85	19.93
23	Chris Herndon	11	85.9	7.81	5.08	2.73	12.89	0.65	19.8
24	Anthony Firkser	6	42.1	7.02	3.88	3.13	10.9	0.55	19.7
25	Ben Watson	10	76.7	7.67	5.26	2.41	12.93	0.69	18.86
26	CJ Uzomah	13	84.7	6.52	3.57	2.94	10.09	0.55	18.39
27	Will Dissly	4	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
28	Cameron Brate	12	85.3	7.11	4.81	2.3	11.92	0.68	17.62
29	Jake Butt	3	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44
30	Jeff Heuerman	10	71.1	7.11	6.46	0.65	13.57	0.91	14.93

I desperately want to belie Ertz can be quarterback proof and he is still a must-start in nearly all situations. However, I am scared that this Wentz injury could lead to bad week and his absence could end a lot of fantasy seasons this week. Ebron also has a tough matchup but if he is fully healthy you have to trust him because if Luck trusts him that is good enough for me.

With four of the top 12 on the injured reserve things are incredibly thin at this position. Engram's return is a boost to the position, especially if Beckham is out. Uzomah has a really nice matchup against the Raiders but I do not want to be leaving my fantasy semi finals potentially in the hands of Uzomah.

Outside of this list we have Ian Thomas, who had 11 targets last week but has a really tough matchup to overcome. However, I like the idea of being able to go into Monday Night Football with a chance if he is my tight end this week. We also have the potential for a Jesse James revenge game. McDonald is the number one in Pittsburgh but James has unfinished business against the Patriots from last year...