Week 15 Red Zone Risers and Fallers

I was thinking, why are the red zone risers and fallers so important, and then I came across this article from Sharp Football Analysis, and suddenly it all made sense. "In the past decade, 74.1% of all offensive touchdowns have come from the red zone." And if you come across defenses that are stingy in the red zone trips of their opponents, then you know you have potential for kicker scoring (if you still believe in that stuff).

Remember, this week is not only the beginning of your fantasy playoffs but also Apocalyptic-Covid.  Check and recheck to make sure your lineups are Covid free!

Thanks to Footballguys.com, teamrankings.com, flurrysports.com, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and rotoballer.com for their stats and references.

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Top Red Zone Passing QBs

(min. 25 Total Red Zone TDs)

PLAYER	INSIDE 20	INSIDE 10	WEEK 15 OPP.	TOTAL RED ZONE TD
Tom Brady	104 attempts, 64 completions	46 attempts 25 completions	New Orleans Saints	44
Matthew Stafford	92 attempts 48 completions	46 attempts 21 completions	Seattle Seahawks	42
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen	85 attempts 48 completions	37 attempts 21 completions	Carolina Panthers	35
Patrick Mahomes
Aaron Rodgers	76 attempts 42 completions	39 attempts 22 completions	Baltimore Ravens	34
Kirk Cousins	60 attempts 36 completions	28 attempts 17 completions	Chicago Bears	33
Teddy Bridgewater	53 attempts 32 completions	27 attempts 14 completions	Cincinnati Bengals	25
Dak Prescott	66 attempts 38 completions	20 attempts 15 completions	New York Giants	27
Matt Ryan	56 attempts 32 completions	26 attempts 14 completions	San Francisco 49ers	25
Carson Wentz	53 attempts 29 completions	33 attempts 18 completions	New England Patriots	25
Ben Roethlisberger	60 attempts 33 completions	33 attempts 18 completions	Tennessee Titans	25

 

Top 11 Red Zone WR/TE

PLAYER	TARGETS, REC. INSIDE 20	TARGETS, REC. INSIDE 10	WEEK 15 OPP.	TOTAL RED ZONE TD
Cooper Kupp	29 targets 20 receptions	14 targets 8 receptions	Seattle Seahawks	17
Chris Godwin	25 targets 20 receptions	8 targets 5 receptions	New Orleans Saints	7
Stefon Diggs	22 targets 13 receptions	9 targets 6 receptions	Carolina Panthers	11
Tyreek Hill			L.A. Chargers
Justin Jefferson	18 targets 9 receptions	9 targets 3 receptions	Chicago Bears	9
Davante Adams	17 targets 11 receptions	9 targets 6 receptions	Baltimore Ravens	10
Cameron Brate	17 targets 9 receptions	6 targets 2 receptions	New Orleans Saints	4
Pat Freiermuth	17 targets 11 receptions	9 targets 7 receptions	Tennessee Titans	12
Mike Williams			Kansas City Chiefs
Mike Evans	16 targets 10 receptions	10 targets 7 receptions	New Orleans Saints	13

 

Top 11 Red Zone RBs

NAME, TEAM	INSIDE 20	INSIDE 10	WEEK 15 OPPONENT	TOTAL RED ZONE TD
Jonathan Taylor	71 attempts	35 attempts	New England Patriots	35
Dalvin Cook	41 attempts	25 attempts	Chicago Bears	12
Austin Ekeler	40 attempts	10 attempts	Kansas City Chiefs	21
Leonard Fournette	40 attempts	25 attempts	New Orleans Saints	17
James Conner	38 attempts	14 attempts	Detroit Lions	25
Antonio Gibson	34 attempts	21 attempts	Philadelphia Eagles	14
Melvin Gordon	33 attempts	19 attempts	Cincinnati Bengals	15
Derrick Henry	OUT	FOR	FANTASY	SEASON
Myles Gaskin	31 attempts	20 attempts	New York Jets	8
Damien Harris	31 attempts	22 attempts	DNP	19
Nick Chubb	30 attempts	15 attempts	Las Vegas Raiders	7

 

Top Team Red Zone Scoring% (TD only)

TEAM	% TD IN RED ZONE	QB	RECEIVING TARGETS INSIDE 20	RB TARGETS INSIDE 20	WEEK 15 OPP.
San Francisco	72.97% Week	Jimmy Garoppolo 18 passing touchdowns in the red zone	Brandon Aiyuk 6 touchdowns in the red zone on 14 targets	Elijah Mitchell 28 total rushing attempts 9 touchdowns	Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints	67.44%	Taysom Hill 8 attempts			Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals	67.31%	Kyler Murray 18 red zone passing touchdowns	DeAndre Hopkins - out for season	James Conner	Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks	65.63%	Russell Wilson 15 red zone touchdowns 3 interceptions	No wide receiver in the top 20	No running back top 20	Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	65.52%	Tom Brady (1st)	Fournette is both top 20 in receiving and rushing		New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings	65.12%	Kirk Cousins	Justin Jefferson	Dalvin Cook	Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles	63.64%	Jalen Hurts 21st in red-zone passing stats	No wide receiver top 25	Hurts 17th in rushing red zone stats 19 red zone rushing touchdowns	WFT
Cincinnati Bengals	63.16%	Joe Burrow 18th red zone passing stats	No wide receiver top 20. Ja'Marr Chase has 17 total red-zone targets and 7 touchdown	Joe Mixon is 15th in red zone rushing stats he has 24 red zone rushing touchdowns.	Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens	62.79%	Lamar Jackson (CHECK STATUS)	Mark Andrews leads the team and is 16th in red zone rushing stats.	No running back, including Jackson, is in the top 25.	Green Bay Packers
Tennessee Titans	62.50%	Ryan Tannehill is 17th in red-zone passing stats		Only Derrick Henry appears in the top 20 (even now)	Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers	62.16%	Ben Roethlisberger	Pat Freiermuth	Najee Harris is 23rd in red zone rushing stats. He has 16 total red zone rushing touchdowns	Tennessee Titans
Los Angeles Chargers	61.90%				PLAYED
Miami Dolphins	60.53%	Tua Tagovailoa is 21st in red-zone passing stats. He has 61 attempts and 11 touchdowns.	No wide receiver top 25	Myles Gaskin	New York Jets

 

Takeaways

Team Risers

As far as team stats go, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins are the biggest risers for scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

The Steelers, on the back of tight end Freiermuth, have risen to 11^th, scoring on 62.16% of their red zone attempts.  They have scored 83.33% of attempts in the red zone in their last three games.

The Dolphins team has also improved their red-zone scoring efficiency, moving up to seventh from the eighth spot.  Mostly thanks to their 70% success rate in the red zone in their last three games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a team are red zone deadly.  They have scored on 65.52% of attempts for the season and 69.23 % in the last three weeks.  It helps that they have players in the top 11 in red zone attempts in all statistical categories.

Red Zone Fallers

The most precipitous fall for the team scoring in the red zone is the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have fallen from 13^th in Week 13 to 24^th in Week 15.  They have scored on only 36.36% of their red zone attempts in their last three games.

Not surprising the Buffalo Bills are also trending the wrong way.  The Bills have slipped from 12^th in Week 13 to 18^th in week 15.  For the season, they have scored on 58.93% of their red zone attempts, but in the last three weeks have seen success on only 46.15% of their red zone attempts.

The Cincinnati Bengals slide from fourth two weeks ago to eighth this week results from a 50% success rate in the last three weeks in red zone scoring attempts.

 

Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring% (TD only)

These are teams that are hard to score against in the red zone and their Week 11 opponents.  These players will be natural red zone fallers.

TEAM	% TD ALLOWED IN RED ZONE	WEEK 15 OPPONENT	POTENTIAL FALLER	THE MORE YOU KNOW
New Orleans Saints	43.59%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Leonard Fournette	New Orleans is giving up the least amount of fantasy points to the running back position (12.5)
New England Patriots	45.71%	Indianapolis Colts	Jonathan Taylor	We all know the Patriots focus on the best player
Baltimore Ravens	48.39%	Green Bay Packers	N/A	The Ravens' secondary is depleted, and the Packers are just the team to exploit them.
Seattle Seahawks	48.89%	Los Angles Rams
Buffalo Bills	50%	Carolina Panthers		If the Panthers had a red zone threat, it would be Cam Newton, but the quarterback carousel in Carolina makes it a moot point.
Miami Dolphins	50%	New York Jets		It is almost impossible for the Jets to fall further.
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.11%	Tennessee Titans		Without Henry in the lineup, the Titans' red zone threat is minimal.

 

Worst Red-Zone Defenses

TEAM/RANK	% TD ALLOWED	WEEK 15 OPPONENT	POTENTIAL RED ZONE RISER	THE MORE YOU KNOW
32nd LAS VEGAS RAIDERS	77.14%	Cleveland Browns	Nick Chubb	The Raiders have actually allowed 77.78% of red zone attempts to score in the last three weeks.
DETROIT LIONS	74.42%	Arizona Cardinals	Chase Edmonds	This will be a James Conner game if he is healthy.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	71.05%	New England Patriots	Whoever is starting at running back	Harris out - hamstring
GREEN BAY PACKERS	69.70%	Baltimore Ravens	Mark Andrews	This would be Lamar Jackson's game but hobbled by ankle injury, hard to trust.
ATLANTA FALCONS	68.75%	San Francisco Niners	Deebo Samuel	Samuel is scoring on the ground and through the air. Look for George Kittle to make his way up the red zone riser chart
CLEVELAND BROWNS	68.29%	Las Vegas Raiders	Josh Jacobs	The Browns are the epitome of Apocalyptic Covid
CAROLINA PANTHERS	67.57%	Buffalo Bills	Stefon Diggs	This is Diggs and Josh Allen red zone rising week.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	67.50%	Chicago Bears	Justin Fields	The Bears have multiple coaches in Covid protocol.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS	65.45%	PLAYED	PLAYED	PLAYED
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	64.58%	WFT	Antonio Gibson	WFT may be playing with second or third-string QB.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	63.83%	Houston Texans

 

Takeaways

The most depleted team by Covid is the team most likely to make the red zone rise.  Chubb rushes 41.7% of the time inside the 20-yard line and 46.7% inside the five-yard line.

This would be a smash spot for Conner, who rushes 60.9% of the time inside the five-yard line and has 35 red zone touchdowns. With his ankle injury, look for Edmonds to increase from his 18 red zone attempts and one touchdown.

Good Luck in the playoffs!

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