Week 16 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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5. More Fantasy Football Analysis

Another two Saturday games this week so make sure you have those lineups set. It would be criminal to lose your final because you forget about those two games until it is too late! This week is all about trusting your gut if you are in the championship game. If you got here you have likely made smart decisions all season, and while all the information we offer can help, ultimately you have to do what you believe in. In DFS then your format dictates what you columns you are looking at below. In 50/50 type tournaments then the consistency is important but in GPP then ceiling is your key column.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

Good luck this week for those of you in those championship game and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays!

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	14	375.5	26.82	7.3	19.53	34.12	0.27	125.44
2	Philip Rivers	14	266.6	19.05	3.73	15.31	22.78	0.2	116.18
3	Josh Johnson	2	35.2	17.62	3.79	13.83	21.41	0.22	99.53
4	Aaron Rodgers	14	270.7	19.33	5.62	13.71	24.96	0.29	85.81
5	Matt Ryan	14	310.1	22.15	8.04	14.12	30.19	0.36	83.23
6	Russell Wilson	14	265.1	18.94	5.65	13.28	24.59	0.3	82.35
7	Ben Roethlisberger	14	295.6	21.11	7.52	13.59	28.63	0.36	80.4
8	Andrew Luck	14	279.8	19.99	6.97	13.02	26.96	0.35	77.29
9	Cam Newton	14	278.6	19.9	7.01	12.89	26.91	0.35	76.43
10	Tom Brady	14	252.7	18.05	5.91	12.14	23.95	0.33	73.2
11	Deshaun Watson	14	277.3	19.81	7.87	11.94	27.67	0.4	69.67
12	Baker Mayfield	12	196.1	16.34	5.12	11.22	21.47	0.31	68.45
13	Carson Wentz	11	202.3	18.39	7.02	11.37	25.41	0.38	66.56
14	Kirk Cousins	14	258	18.43	7.41	11.02	25.84	0.4	64.29
15	Alex Smith	10	140	14	4.01	9.99	18.01	0.29	62.92
16	Nick Mullens	6	96.8	16.13	5.94	10.18	22.07	0.37	59.89
17	Dak Prescott	14	245.7	17.55	7.41	10.14	24.96	0.42	59.13
18	Joe Flacco	9	139.2	15.47	5.51	9.96	20.98	0.36	58.91
19	Drew Brees	14	286.9	20.5	11	9.5	31.49	0.54	58.7
20	CJ Beathard	5	81	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
21	Eli Manning	14	203.4	14.53	4.86	9.66	19.39	0.33	57.92
22	Jimmy Garoppolo	3	46	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick	8	165.8	20.73	12.47	8.26	33.2	0.6	55.2
24	Andy Dalton	11	174.5	15.87	6.66	9.21	22.52	0.42	53.7
25	Mitchell Trubisky	12	238.8	19.9	12.05	7.85	31.95	0.61	52.75
26	Case Keenum	14	190.4	13.6	4.81	8.79	18.42	0.35	52.04
27	Jared Goff	14	269.1	19.22	11.29	7.93	30.51	0.59	51.96
28	Jameis Winston	9	153	17	8.89	8.11	25.9	0.52	49.52
29	Derek Carr	14	218.9	15.63	7.36	8.27	23	0.47	48.83
30	Matthew Stafford	14	197.1	14.08	6.16	7.92	20.24	0.44	46.27

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 15 weeks from largest to smallest. This week is often a case of trusting who got you to this point. If you are in the finals of your league it is extremely unlikely you are now going to pivot and look elsewhere unless you are desperate.

Josh Johnson has been a nice surprise for Washington fans but for fantasy players, he remains essentially useless, especially with a tough matchup. My biggest concerns this week are Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, who are both facing incredibly good defenses right now. If you have an option to pivot that you feel OK about I may do it with those two.

The trouble is there is not a lot further down the rankings that I feel great about. A lot of teams have played defense harder to end the season and there are not so many gimmes at this stage. Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum have the best matchups of players outside the top-10. Mayfield is probably owned and there is no way I can trust my season to the hands of Keenum on a Monday night in Oakland.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Melvin Gordon	10	247.5	24.75	5.76	18.99	30.51	0.23	131.04
2	Todd Gurley	14	369.1	26.36	8.11	18.26	34.47	0.31	112.11
3	Saquon Barkley	14	341.9	24.42	8.04	16.39	32.46	0.33	98.64
4	Christian McCaffrey	14	346.7	24.76	9.61	15.15	34.37	0.39	88.58
5	Ezekiel Elliott	14	319.3	22.81	8.22	14.58	31.03	0.36	86.06
6	Alvin Kamara	14	321.7	22.98	11.1	11.88	34.08	0.48	70.56
7	James Conner	12	267.6	22.3	10.72	11.58	33.02	0.48	68.68
8	Joe Mixon	12	223.9	18.66	7.21	11.45	25.87	0.39	66.94
9	Kareem Hunt	11	231.2	21.02	9.85	11.17	30.87	0.47	65.87
10	James White	14	248.3	17.74	8.99	8.75	26.73	0.51	52.73
11	David Johnson	14	225.2	16.09	7.6	8.49	23.68	0.47	50.14
12	Alex Collins	10	115.6	11.56	3.5	8.06	15.06	0.3	49.75
13	Phillip Lindsay	14	215.1	15.36	6.98	8.38	22.35	0.45	49.18
14	Marshawn Lynch	6	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
15	Kerryon Johnson	10	142.4	14.24	6.2	8.04	20.44	0.44	46.94
16	Devonta Freeman	2	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
17	Tarik Cohen	14	225.5	16.11	9.43	6.67	25.54	0.59	43.61
18	Dalvin Cook	9	132.2	14.69	8.19	6.5	22.88	0.56	41.03
19	Darren Sproles	4	35.6	8.9	2.5	6.4	11.4	0.28	40.58
20	Chris Carson	12	161.9	13.49	7.1	6.4	20.59	0.53	39.15
21	Theo Riddick	12	109.6	9.13	2.8	6.33	11.94	0.31	38.89
22	Leonard Fournette	7	104.3	14.9	9.97	4.93	24.87	0.67	37.17
23	Lamar Miller	13	163	12.54	6.4	6.13	18.94	0.51	37.08
24	Aaron Jones	12	173.5	14.46	9.32	5.14	23.78	0.64	36.89
25	Marlon Mack	10	147.5	14.75	10.47	4.28	25.22	0.71	35.53
26	Kenyan Drake	14	188.3	13.45	8.25	5.2	21.7	0.61	35.37
27	Austin Ekeler	13	161	12.38	7.01	5.37	19.4	0.57	34.26
28	Mark Ingram	10	126.9	12.69	7.61	5.08	20.3	0.6	33.86
29	Adrian Peterson	14	180.3	12.88	7.98	4.9	20.86	0.62	33.66
30	TJ Yeldon	14	177.1	12.65	7.63	5.02	20.28	0.6	33.63
31	Tevin Coleman	14	176.1	12.58	7.52	5.06	20.1	0.6	33.61
32	Matt Breida	13	160.9	12.38	7.79	4.59	20.16	0.63	32.05
33	Jay Ajayi	4	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
34	Jalen Richard	14	141.7	10.12	4.86	5.26	14.98	0.48	31.2
35	Jordan Howard	14	142.6	10.19	4.95	5.23	15.14	0.49	31.13
36	Dion Lewis	14	151.9	10.85	6.74	4.11	17.59	0.62	28.32
37	Kenneth Dixon	4	36.7	9.18	4.49	4.68	13.67	0.49	27.92
38	Nick Chubb	14	179	12.79	11.07	1.72	23.85	0.87	27.56
39	Nyheim Hines	14	141.7	10.12	6.38	3.74	16.5	0.63	26.18
40	Sony Michel	11	118.5	10.77	7.63	3.14	18.4	0.71	25.98
41	Peyton Barber	14	137.9	9.85	6.05	3.8	15.9	0.61	25.9
42	Isaiah Crowell	13	142.7	10.98	8.46	2.52	19.44	0.77	25.22
43	Derrick Henry	14	175	12.5	12.48	0.02	24.98	1	25.02
44	Bilal Powell	7	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
45	Jeff Wilson	4	41.7	10.43	7.81	2.62	18.23	0.75	24.35
46	Elijah McGuire	6	57.2	9.53	6.15	3.38	15.68	0.65	24.31
47	Ito Smith	13	97.7	7.52	3.52	3.99	11.04	0.47	23.55
48	Chris Thompson	8	80.4	10.05	8.91	1.14	18.96	0.89	21.39
49	Javorius Allen	11	95.7	8.7	6.03	2.67	14.73	0.69	21.26
50	LeSean McCoy	12	109.9	9.16	6.96	2.2	16.12	0.76	21.21

Injuries are starting to ravage the position as the season wears on and actually fresher guys have been the way to go more recently. I do expect a big bounce back from Elliott and Barkley after they had quiet games last week. McCaffrey should see plenty of the ball early in that game with Newton out but how much they want to expose him is a concern.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray look a nice pairing in Minnesota with someone different calling the plays and both could be useful championship winners this week. Marlon Mack is another guy I am trusting this week after a big week for Derrick Henry against that defense last week.

Ultimately though you have to go where you feel comfortable and decide what will haunt you more. This is an inconsistent position at the best of times but this late in the season even more so. If a blip from your stud is less annoying to you than a bad day from a gamble then go that way. If you are happy taking the gamble to live a little dangerously and would be more annoyed if you played safe then that is the way to go here.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Davante Adams	14	303.5	21.68	5.36	16.32	27.04	0.25	109.4
2	Julian Edelman	10	169.4	16.94	4.09	12.85	21.03	0.24	87.04
3	Antonio Brown	14	279.2	19.94	6.14	13.8	26.08	0.31	84.7
4	DeAndre Hopkins	14	296.4	21.17	7.85	13.32	29.02	0.37	78.25
5	Julio Jones	14	291.2	20.8	7.66	13.14	28.46	0.37	77.3
6	Adam Thielen	14	288.3	20.59	8.2	12.39	28.8	0.4	72.28
7	Odell Beckham Jr	12	223.1	18.59	6.86	11.73	25.45	0.37	69
8	Keenan Allen	13	238.9	18.38	7	11.37	25.38	0.38	66.6
9	Robert Woods	14	234.7	16.76	6.08	10.68	22.84	0.36	62.98
10	Michael Thomas	14	285.7	20.41	11.01	9.4	31.42	0.54	58.23
11	Stefon Diggs	13	242.6	18.66	9.06	9.6	27.72	0.49	57.09
12	AJ Green	9	158.4	17.6	8.17	9.43	25.77	0.46	55.5
13	JuJu Smith-Schuster	14	259.7	18.55	9.44	9.11	27.99	0.51	55
14	Tyreek Hill	14	289.3	20.66	12.68	7.98	33.35	0.61	54.33
15	Brandin Cooks	13	211.8	16.29	7.02	9.27	23.31	0.43	54.09
16	TY Hilton	12	210.1	17.51	8.59	8.92	26.1	0.49	53.2
17	Emmanuel Sanders	12	194.1	16.18	7.27	8.9	23.45	0.45	52.15
18	Mike Evans	14	240.8	17.2	8.47	8.73	25.67	0.49	52.13
19	Tyler Lockett	14	191.6	13.69	4.92	8.77	18.6	0.36	51.77
20	Trey Quinn	2	22.5	11.25	3.32	7.93	14.57	0.3	49.33
21	Tyler Boyd	14	222.1	15.86	7.86	8.01	23.72	0.5	47.89
22	Willie Snead	13	134.9	10.38	3.18	7.2	13.56	0.31	44.26
23	Cooper Kupp	8	135.1	16.89	10.49	6.4	27.38	0.62	44.07
24	Will Fuller	7	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
25	Kenny Golladay	14	195.3	13.95	7.57	6.38	21.52	0.54	39.66
26	Geronimo Allison	5	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
27	Alshon Jeffery	11	160.2	14.56	8.97	5.59	23.53	0.62	38.21
28	Isaiah McKenzie	5	52.7	10.54	4.19	6.35	14.73	0.4	37.03
29	DeSean Jackson	11	150.5	13.68	8.04	5.64	21.72	0.59	36.96
30	Josh Gordon	12	141.7	11.81	5.61	6.2	17.42	0.48	36.66
31	Jarvis Landry	14	189.1	13.51	7.91	5.6	21.42	0.59	36.57
32	Curtis Samuel	10	112.5	11.25	5.19	6.06	16.44	0.46	35.62
33	Marvin Jones	9	116.8	12.98	7.51	5.47	20.49	0.58	35.4
34	Brandon LaFell	4	37.5	9.38	3.38	5.99	12.76	0.36	35.35
35	Cameron Meredith	3	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
36	Golden Tate	13	172.3	13.25	8.5	4.75	21.75	0.64	33.92
37	Mohamed Sanu	14	140	10	4.34	5.66	14.34	0.43	33.03
38	Larry Fitzgerald	14	157.5	11.25	5.86	5.39	17.11	0.52	32.86
39	Dede Westbrook	14	161.2	11.51	6.28	5.24	17.79	0.55	32.63
40	Amari Cooper	13	205.3	15.79	15	0.79	30.79	0.95	32.42
41	Jamison Crowder	7	68.3	9.76	4.25	5.51	14.01	0.44	32.17
42	Allen Robinson	12	143.9	11.99	7.35	4.64	19.34	0.61	31.55
43	Rashad Greene	4	7.8	1.95	0.13	1.82	2.08	0.07	31.4
44	Christian Kirk	12	126.5	10.54	5.35	5.19	15.89	0.51	31.3
45	Adam Humphries	14	163.2	11.66	6.96	4.7	18.62	0.6	31.18
46	Albert Wilson	7	90.7	12.96	9.55	3.41	22.5	0.74	30.55
47	Paul Richardson	7	59.1	8.44	3.23	5.21	11.67	0.38	30.52
48	Demaryius Thomas	14	151	10.79	6.02	4.76	16.81	0.56	30.09
49	Keith Kirkwood	6	40.4	6.73	1.95	4.79	8.68	0.29	30.01
50	Corey Davis	14	170.2	12.16	8.66	3.49	20.82	0.71	29.22

Common sense is the order of the day at this position this late in the season. Most of the top-10 here are matchup-proof and pivoting away from them now would be somewhat suicidal. As you go further down the list then its a case of playing the matchups, but doing it sensibly. If you know a team has trouble covering receivers then a player you know you can rely on is fine. Selecting the fourth receiver on the Browns in the hope he exploits the Bengals is somewhat less of a good idea! As always its about striking the balance between consistency and ceiling.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Travis Kelce	14	275	19.64	9.98	9.66	29.62	0.51	58.31
2	Zach Ertz	14	242.8	17.34	9.8	7.54	27.14	0.57	48.03
3	George Kittle	14	214.4	15.31	8.05	7.26	23.37	0.53	44.44
4	Eric Ebron	14	201.2	14.37	8.12	6.25	22.49	0.57	39.8
5	Hakeem Valles	2	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
6	Adam Shaheen	2	14.4	7.2	1.84	5.36	9.04	0.26	35.4
7	OJ Howard	10	124.5	12.45	6.99	5.46	19.44	0.56	34.62
8	Jordan Reed	12	123.8	10.32	4.42	5.9	14.73	0.43	34.42
9	Jared Cook	14	183.8	13.13	8.92	4.2	22.05	0.68	32.44
10	Jack Doyle	6	62.5	10.42	5.33	5.09	15.75	0.51	30.78
11	Tyler Eifert	4	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
12	Rob Gronkowski	11	128.8	11.71	7.52	4.19	19.23	0.64	29.94
13	Evan Engram	9	88.9	9.88	5.58	4.3	15.46	0.56	27.36
14	Vance McDonald	13	122.2	9.4	5.07	4.33	14.47	0.54	26.82
15	Austin Hooper	14	144.7	10.34	6.93	3.41	17.27	0.67	25.75
16	Lee Smith	6	35.3	5.88	1.79	4.09	7.68	0.3	25.18
17	Kyle Rudolph	14	115.3	8.24	4.02	4.22	12.26	0.49	25.11
18	Greg Olsen	9	83.1	9.23	5.66	3.58	14.89	0.61	24.3
19	Geoff Swaim	8	56.2	7.03	3.11	3.92	10.13	0.44	22.92
20	Mark Andrews	13	81.5	6.27	2.51	3.76	8.78	0.4	21.92
21	Jimmy Graham	14	119.1	8.51	5.4	3.11	13.91	0.63	21.91
22	Trey Burton	14	132.6	9.47	7.56	1.91	17.04	0.8	21.33
23	David Njoku	14	120.4	8.6	5.85	2.75	14.45	0.68	21.24
24	Chris Herndon	12	94.2	7.85	4.85	3	12.7	0.62	20.56
25	Anthony Firkser	6	42.1	7.02	3.88	3.13	10.9	0.55	19.7
26	Ben Watson	11	80.5	7.32	5.12	2.2	12.44	0.7	17.78
27	Will Dissly	4	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
28	CJ Uzomah	14	88.4	6.31	3.52	2.8	9.83	0.56	17.65
29	Cameron Brate	13	87.2	6.71	4.83	1.88	11.53	0.72	16.03
30	Jake Butt	3	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44

Zach Ertz is the only one of the top four I have concerns about. The other three I am starting if I own them and I am not looking back. The same goes for Jared Cook but beyond that is is all about matchups. Austin Hooper has done well this year against bad matchups and he is a name that may have been jettisoned last week after his zero-point performance. This is perhaps a more matchup variable position than any of the above and that is something you need to consider, especially with what is on the line this week.