Week 3 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. ECR

Welcome, one and all, to the weekly piece that puts my rankings under the microscope and gives me a chance to explain myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) found on FantasyPros. My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd.

I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane with every position folded in with the others. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s dance.

Week 3 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

I like four quarterbacks at least four slots above the consensus: Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky. Cam gets to play at home against the Bengals -- who are getting Vontaze Burfict back -- but this dude is a goal-line back and QB rolled in one. When no one else’s matchup is screaming for the top-three then Cam’s a rather easy default.

Russ also has wheels and gets to play at home in Week 3. My hope is that Seattle learns from their embarrassing effort on MNF, though putting faith in Brian Schottenheimer is probably dumb. Bortles is one of my favorite plays, as Jacksonville should roll the Titans with the defensive advantage and win the field position war all day. I know Tennessee has historically performed well against him, but 2018 is a new year. And Trubisky simply gets to face an Arizona team whose offense is sucking the whole team down, again making for strong field positions.

I dislike Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck four or more slots than the ECR, as Rodgers’ limited mobility continues to hinder my love. Also, Washington’s defense at home is nothing to scoff at. Meanwhile, Luck has the tall task of facing an Eagles defense in Philly just two weeks after Matt Ryan was a fantasy dud in Week 1. I’ll pass on Luck here as he continues to get back to speed.

Week 3 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

I have to assume that folks are just waiting on Dalvin Cook’s status to give Latavius Murray the proper respect for Week 3, as his ECR of 39 is criminal compared to the RB2/3 he is (even if Cook plays a bit) in a dream matchup against Buffalo. If Cook is confirmed out then I’ll probably take Murray up to RB13 or so, making him a high-end RB2. But Javorius Allen and Austin Ekeler have both been useful plays when facing the Bills in Weeks 1 and 2, so why not Murray?

Other likes include Alfred Morris, who I think gets his share in a shootout, as well as Chris Carson and Jordan Wilkins, both of whom still look like the best RBs on their teams despite some bumps in the road. Again, I think higher of Seattle at home and that whole special teams, getting gassed business for Carson better be ironed out if Pete Carroll is a real NFL coach.

Aside from being lower on Cook, I also have Saquon Barkley down to 12 from an ECR of 6. I respect his incredible, tackle-breaking talent, but the Giants are just a dumpster fire. That offensive line has more holes in it than my ex-girlfriend’s stories about what she did the night before. Barkley’s broken tackles only turn losses into modest gains, and if you’re lucky then he breaks a huge one. There are better ranges of outcomes to dance with.

I’m also down on Dion Lewis (-11), Isaiah Crowell (-7) and Royce Freeman (-7) because Lewis has a broken offense around him, Crowell faces a tough Cleveland run defense and is the less versatile RB and Freeman is the 1B to Phillip Lindsay’s 1A right now. Freeman will continue to play, but he fills more of the two-down, short-yardage back role versus Lindsay’s more agile game and his receiving chops.

Week 3 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Here are the WRs I like considerably more than the ECR: Larry Fitzgerald (+5), Robert Woods (+13), Keelan Cole (+7), Calvin Ridley (+11) and James Washington (+15).

The Cardinals have flat-out sucked so far, but the Bears secondary is leaky. Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara and slot man Bryce Callahan have had their moments, but they yielded a 9-142-1 line to Randall Cobb -- he was more than just that long TD scamper -- and we saw Tyler Lockett muster a 5-60-1 line in Seattle’s MNF struggle. I hate trusting Sam Bradford (or Josh Rosen) for anything right now, but Fitz is still in WR2 territory for me in a game where they should need to throw very quickly, lest Khalil Mack eat all of their QBs for dinner.

Robert Woods seems poised to join Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp at the feast in Week 3, as his potential hasn’t turned into production just yet. He leads the WR trio in air yards despite trailing in fantasy points. It can feel like a chaotic carousel at times, but the numbers under the surface point to Woods popping.

Then you have Cole, who should square off with the often-burned Malcolm Butler. Ridley, who saw five targets compared to Mohamed Sanu’s two en route to a 4-64-1 line, is working into the offense just as the Saints reeling defense comes to town. And while Washington caught just one-of-five targets for a 14-yard TD, he’s going against a very green DB corps for the Bucs that features nobody with a PFF score above 63. That PIT-TB tilt has a Vegas total that’s reached 54 already, making it a nice game to target for fringe players.

On the other side of things, I’m down on both Emmanuel Sanders (-7) and Demaryius Thomas (-5). Don’t take this as a “you cannot start him!” -- I’m just lower on them heading into a road tilt with Baltimore. I realize the Ravens got torched by Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Tyler Boyd in Week 2, but they’ve had 10 days to rebound and study up. Sanders should matchup well with Tavon Young in the slot, but Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr are worthy adversaries on the outside.

I’m also six slots lower on Allen Robinson II, who caught a stellar 10 balls in Week 2, but for 83 scoreless yards. The good news for AR owners is that he’s clearly Mitch Trubisky’s first read on the majority of pass plays. The bad news (more for Trubs) is that he doesn’t progress well through his reads and Robinson isn’t getting much separation, so the receptions tend to be in traffic. Robinson’s 21 yards after contact are nothing special and the Bears don’t generate enough offense to hit the red zone often. With whispers that Jordan Howard needs to be more involved, I’d drop AR from WR2 to WR3 status.

Week 3 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Typically a tighter position to rank, I have Jared Cook three slots higher (No. 6 vs. No. 9) since Derek Carr and Jon Gruden both seem happy to lean on the TE thus far. Cook’s floor still leaves something to be desired against the top-tier TEs, but he’s been good for a handful of elite games in past seasons and finds himself in a good environment for his own production. Oakland will face Miami in Week 3, who have shut down opposing wideouts but have yielded 155 yards to TEs through two weeks. It’s the little edges that can turn a week for you.

I also like both Jesse James and Vance McDonald two slots above their ECR, though James is the only one you’re starting for Week 3 since McDonald hasn’t “shown it” yet after starting the season injured.

I’m not much lower on anyone that I think you’d be using, though Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Benjamin Watson are three slots below ECR for me. This takes them from 14-team viability to “eh, I’d rather not”. For instance, I have Austin Hooper at 14 -- above both of the aforementioned TEs -- and I bet most see him as lower than them.

Watson is facing a dinged-up Atlanta squad that still held Zach Ertz to a 5-48-0 line on 10 targets. ASJ has just 43 air yards so far -- fewer than Logan Thomas -- and while he’s a big target in the red zone, I sense Jacksonville just pounding it in with Leonard Fournette if they get near the goal line. I like Keelan Cole to rip off a long TD, but don’t love the outlook in that tilted contest for someone who is unlikely to score from a distance.

Week 3 Rankings - Nick Mariano vs. Industry Consensus

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