Week 4 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. ECR

Welcome, one and all, to the weekly piece that puts my rankings under the microscope and gives me a chance to explain myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) found on FantasyPros. My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd.

I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane with every position folded in with the others. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s dance.

Week 4 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

There are three quarterbacks inside the top-14 that I like more than three slots above the ECR. They are Deshaun Watson, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andrew Luck. Watson isn’t particularly interesting here because he’s still a top-8 QB that you’re starting if you have him no matter how you slice it, but Fitzpatrick and Luck go from the outside of the top-14 to being startable in 12-team 1QB formats for me.

Fitzmagic looks like he’s getting at least one more week under center for Tampa Bay in a tough matchup against the Chicago Khalil Mack’s, but there’s no way that I condone sitting a man who just became the first QB in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in three straight games. The Bucs have no run game and need everything to go through Fitz, whose 70.3% completion rate is sixth-best in the NFL. Luck’s 68.5% mark is 10th, and he and the Colts have the same non-existent ground game. The points may not come through deep bombs to T.Y. Hilton, but it’ll get there.

Notable QBs I’m against are Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz, though I should note that I have Philip Rivers at No. 8 compared to an ECR of 4. That doesn’t mean you bench him, but I don’t love the setup for DFS since I still think the Bills get railroaded early. Cousins looked overmatched by said Bills last week and now has to deal with the Rams’ front seven. Carson Wentz and the Eagles are road favorites against a stingy Titans defense that has clamped down with their offense ailing. Wentz is still shaking off some rust and may be without Alshon Jeffery yet again. I’ll go elsewhere, thank you very much.

Week 4 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Perhaps most experts are waiting on practice reports to come out before entrusting Leonard Fournette again, but I’ve got him at No. 6 compared to No. 12 on the ECR. He’s squarely in the RB1 conversation for me with Jacksonville as seven-point favorites at home against the Jets. The Jags just got embarrassed with Blake Bortles trying to do it himself and I don’t think they’ll be shy about letting Fournette reclaim his spot as alpha dog in this offense. A two-TD game to follow in Carlos Hyde’s footsteps seems likely.

I’m also elevating Aaron Jones from an ECR of 30 toward the No. 25 range, which has him sniffing RB2 territory in 12-teamers. I think Green Bay has seen enough of Jamaal Williams -- who won’t just disappear, mind you, but he’s put up 135 yards on 36 carries with five catches and subpar pass protection -- while Jones outrushed Williams in his return (42 yards to 29). The Pack are favored by 10 points over Buffalo and frankly, both RBs could combine for three or four TDs if they want to protect Aaron Rodgers.

I’m lower on Matt Breida, Royce Freeman, Isaiah Crowell, the aforementioned Williams and Jordan Wilkins by roughly five slots each. Breida’s ding is through no fault of his own, but I’m downgrading the entire 49ers team until I see C.J. Beathard sustain drives. Breida is a high-end RB3 (around No. 25) until that day. Freeman, Crowell, Williams and Wilkins are all fitting that two-down mold where they need a TD to make value and I trust Phillip Lindsay, Bilal Powell, Jones and Nyheim Hines more than them. Give me the dynamic pass-catchers in 2018.

Week 4 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

There aren’t many surprises here, but I do have Corey Davis 10 slots above ECR right now because he’s pretty much the only non-running back that offers any upside at the moment. Rishard Matthews isn’t even looming anymore -- it’s bad in Tennessee. I can’t vouch for Marcus Mariota’s arm and I hope they don’t need to turn to Austin Davis at any point, but Davis should see double-digit targets the rest of the way. That’s usually enough for WR3 consideration from me.

Then there’s Antonio Callaway (No. 38 for me, No. 47 per ECR), who I believe will flourish with Baker Mayfield at the controls. Yes, Callaway had an ugly drop or two last Thursday but he’s a rookie who saw his target share jump from 13% in Week 2 to 27% in Week 3. I’m never going to play Rishard Higgins and Duke Johnson has fallen by the wayside, which means Callaway could join David Njoku and Jarvis Landry as the trio of playmakers for Mayfield. He’s switched between left and right receiver enough where he’ll get just as much burnable Gareon Conley as he does the tougher Rashaan Melvin for Oakland.

I’m down on Kenny Stills, making him my No. 41 WR compared to an ECR of No. 32, as he’s certainly viewed as the No. 1 option in the passing game and should be locked down tightly by the Patriots defense. It’ll be interesting to see how Devante Parker continues to work back in, but I don’t want to rely on Stills breaking loose here in likely bracket coverage over the top.

I’m also lower once again on Quincy Enunwa, who is fantastic in a vacuum but still not at a level where I’d lean on him against Jacksonville’s secondary. This also means trusting Sam Darnold to turn up on the road against that pressure. No thanks! Ditto, Robby Anderson, who has just 10 targets through three games. I’m also fading both SF WRs by about 10 slots each, but that’s no surprise at this point.

Week 4 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

The Saints and Benjamin Watson are facing off with a Giants team that was a laughing stock at defending the tight end in 2017. They’ve looked better on paper to begin 2018, but they also haven’t really faced a viable TE yet, and even then, they gave up 40+ receiving yards to both of Houston’s TEs (Jordan Akins and Ryan Griffin) in Week 3.

While everyone (rightfully) swoons over Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, I’ll gladly boost Watson since NYG can’t afford to double-team him here. If you want a longshot TE flyer then how about Big Blue’s new starting TE, Rhett Ellison? You could do worse in a plus matchup against the porous Saints D.

I’m lower on Trey Burton and George Kittle, putting each at No. 10 and No. 13, respectively. I trust Burton’s athleticism to eventually translate into stats, but Mitch Trubisky is a one-read youngster right now, and his one read is usually Allen Robinson. I know the Bucs just allowed Vance McDonald to top 100 yards with a score and that’s the only reason Burton is in the top-10 still. He’s in “prove it” territory now. Then there’s Kittle and the 49ers who need to lean on C.J. Beathard on the road as 10-point underdogs against the Chargers, who have held opposing TEs to a collective 9-87-0 line on 18 targets in ‘18. Yikes.

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