Week 5 Consistency Reports - All Positions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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5. More Fantasy Football Analysis

We now have a quarter of a seasons worth of data at our fingertips and the cream has well and truly risen to the top. There are still some interesting names high in the rankings at quarterback and tight end. However, these are generally more variable positions. That is why both positions are often streamed on a weekly basis while running backs and wide receivers are more consistently used. However, we can still see that at every position the consistency rankings are matching the eye test in a big way.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following weeks waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of New England Patriots or Indianapolis Colts players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	115.3	28.83	7.04	21.78	35.87	0.24	146.79
2	Joe Flacco	79.08	19.77	3.16	16.61	22.93	0.16	143.27
3	Philip Rivers	86.44	21.61	4.26	17.35	25.87	0.2	131.24
4	Cam Newton	75.44	25.15	6.06	19.08	31.21	0.24	129.42
5	Aaron Rodgers	77.9	19.48	3.99	15.48	23.47	0.21	114.42
6	Alex Smith	49.48	16.49	3.27	13.22	19.76	0.2	99.66
7	Deshaun Watson	91.94	22.99	7.5	15.48	30.49	0.33	93.41
8	Kirk Cousins	97.58	24.4	8.7	15.7	33.09	0.36	92.8
9	Andy Dalton	81.98	20.5	6.13	14.37	26.62	0.3	89.06
10	Matt Ryan	104.94	26.24	11.97	14.26	38.21	0.46	83.72
11	Jared Goff	98.44	24.61	10.64	13.97	35.25	0.43	81.55
12	Carson Wentz	35.92	17.96	6.73	11.23	24.69	0.37	65.88
13	Drew Brees	96.3	24.08	13.94	10.14	38.01	0.58	65.65
14	Russell Wilson	61.72	15.43	4.77	10.66	20.2	0.31	65.35
15	Ryan Fitzpatrick	100.44	25.11	16.39	8.72	41.5	0.65	63.59
16	Ben Roethlisberger	86.86	21.72	11.44	10.27	33.16	0.53	62.93
17	Tom Brady	66.12	16.53	6.14	10.39	22.67	0.37	61.05
18	Matthew Stafford	72.98	18.25	7.8	10.45	26.04	0.43	60.95
19	Andrew Luck	80.34	20.09	10.92	9.16	31.01	0.54	57.02
20	Jimmy Garoppolo	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
21	Blake Bortles	79.04	19.76	10.73	9.03	30.49	0.54	56.14
22	Eli Manning	57.2	14.3	5.25	9.05	19.55	0.37	53.23
23	Mitch Trubisky	81.5	20.38	15.82	4.56	36.19	0.78	46.62
24	Dak Prescott	50.82	12.71	4.77	7.93	17.48	0.38	46.51
25	Derek Carr	64.92	16.23	9.76	6.47	25.99	0.6	43.22
26	Ryan Tannehill	60.88	15.22	10.2	5.02	25.42	0.67	37.92
27	Baker Mayfield	24.64	12.32	6.34	5.98	18.66	0.51	36.28
28	Case Keenum	47.12	11.78	6.19	5.59	17.97	0.53	34.21
29	Tyrod Taylor	40.98	13.66	10.33	3.33	23.99	0.76	31.72
30	Sam Darnold	41.52	10.38	5.18	5.2	15.56	0.5	31.17

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. There are some really interesting names in the quarterback consistency rankings. No one is surprised to see Mahomes at the top and right now he is the hottest commodity in fantasy football. However, Flacco in second and Smith in sixth are somewhat of a surprise. Flacco finally appears to have guys he trust around him and the motivation to get it right. He is unlikely to ever have monster weeks but in deeper leagues he is a nice safe start. Smith has an even lower ceiling but again once you get into the two quarterback format he becomes a nice safe low-end start each week.

Two interesting quarterbacks facing each other this week are Ryan and Roethlisberger. If we were to take away Ryan's Week 1 outing he would be much higher up this ranking. Right now he is much safer than Roethlisberger. However, we will see this week whether that safety is only available at home or whether he can do it on the road as well.

Two names I just want to touch on are Trubisky and Mayfield. We saw the potential from both of these guys last week but we have also seen big floors. They are great quarterback options in best-ball formats but they are going to be extremely hard to trust. If we see a period of consistent production then they might become safer but for now they are matchup and bye week starters only in most leagues. That is unless you need to shoot for the moon to try and win one week.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	104.2	26.05	1.92	24.13	27.97	0.07	379
2	Saquon Barkley	90.3	22.58	1.68	20.9	24.25	0.07	326.28
3	Melvin Gordon	101.5	25.38	6.33	19.04	31.71	0.25	127.04
4	Alvin Kamara	132.1	33.03	11.9	21.13	44.92	0.36	124.7
5	Marshawn Lynch	64	16	2.64	13.36	18.64	0.16	112.99
6	Christian McCaffrey	64.8	21.6	6.2	15.4	27.8	0.29	96.82
7	Malcolm Brown	13.1	4.37	0.21	4.16	4.57	0.05	95.97
8	Ezekiel Elliott	88.1	22.03	8.08	13.95	30.1	0.37	82.09
9	Tevin Coleman	51.4	12.85	2.57	10.28	15.42	0.2	77.14
10	James White	76.3	19.08	8.11	10.96	27.19	0.43	63.94
11	Carlos Hyde	64	16	5.61	10.39	21.61	0.35	61.64
12	Alex Collins	48.8	12.2	3.11	9.09	15.31	0.26	60.02
13	Adrian Peterson	56.6	18.87	9.42	9.45	28.28	0.5	56.67
14	TJ Yeldon	65	16.25	6.57	9.68	22.82	0.4	56.46
15	Austin Ekeler	60.1	15.03	5.91	9.12	20.93	0.39	53.23
16	Kerryon Johnson	43.9	10.98	2.91	8.06	13.89	0.27	52.36
17	Javorius Allen	53.9	13.48	4.73	8.74	18.21	0.35	51.85
18	David Johnson	60.1	15.03	6.18	8.84	21.21	0.41	51.53
19	Jay Ajayi	39	13	4.56	8.44	17.56	0.35	50.08
20	James Conner	75.6	18.9	12.29	6.61	31.19	0.65	47.97
21	Royce Freeman	41.4	10.35	2.86	7.49	13.21	0.28	47.84
22	Joe Mixon	35.6	17.8	11.46	6.34	29.26	0.64	45.46
23	Stevan Ridley	3.5	1.75	0.07	1.68	1.82	0.04	45.06
24	Kareem Hunt	62.8	15.7	8.84	6.86	24.54	0.56	43.59
25	Derrick Henry	20.5	5.13	0.73	4.39	5.86	0.14	41.01
26	Chris Thompson	49.8	16.6	12.1	4.5	28.7	0.73	39.37
27	Matt Breida	55.8	13.95	8.1	5.85	22.05	0.58	37.97
28	Nyheim Hines	57.3	14.33	9.52	4.81	23.84	0.66	35.89
29	Lamar Miller	41.9	10.48	4.72	5.75	15.2	0.45	33.71
30	Theo Riddick	35.5	8.88	3.33	5.54	12.21	0.38	32.51
31	Dion Lewis	49.9	12.48	7.79	4.69	20.26	0.62	32.46
32	Phillip Lindsay	48.2	12.05	7.16	4.89	19.21	0.59	32.34
33	Giovani Bernard	55.3	13.83	10.74	3.09	24.56	0.78	31.63
34	Bilal Powell	43	10.75	5.57	5.18	16.32	0.52	31.51
35	Jordan Howard	44.1	11.03	6.37	4.65	17.4	0.58	30.1
36	Ito Smith	26.7	8.9	4.24	4.66	13.14	0.48	27.56
37	Aaron Jones	20.9	10.45	6.72	3.73	17.17	0.64	26.71
38	Isaiah Crowell	48.5	12.13	10.1	2.02	22.23	0.83	26.68
39	Tarik Cohen	50.8	12.7	12.08	0.62	24.78	0.95	26.05
40	Chris Carson	33.7	11.23	9	2.23	20.24	0.8	25.25
41	Ty Montgomery	31.6	7.9	3.68	4.22	11.58	0.47	24.88
42	Corey Clement	32.6	10.87	8.46	2.41	19.32	0.78	24.83
43	Wendell Smallwood	30.5	10.17	7.21	2.95	17.38	0.71	24.49
44	Dalvin Cook	29.5	9.83	7.01	2.83	16.84	0.71	23.64
45	Sony Michel	28.2	9.4	6.77	2.63	16.17	0.72	22.46
46	Leonard Fournette	13	6.5	2.83	3.67	9.33	0.44	21.44
47	Jalen Richard	35.7	8.93	7.12	1.8	16.05	0.8	20.11
48	LeSean McCoy	20.6	6.87	3.85	3.01	10.72	0.56	19.11
49	Alfred Morris	29.3	7.33	4.79	2.53	12.12	0.65	18.52
50	Kyle Juszczyk	26.2	6.55	3.74	2.81	10.29	0.57	18.03

There are not too many surprising names in the top-15 outside of Brown, whose ceiling is so low you are essentially ignoring outside of insanely deep leagues. Allen fell back into the pack this week as he failed to score a touchdown. In fact this week it seemed to be Collins who got the red-zone looks which casts massive doubt over Allen's value. However, another fumble near the goal line from Collins might hand that roll back to Allen.

David Johnson had a better week in Week 4, carrying the ball over 20 times for the first time this season. Hopefully that is the start of him turning his season around. Conner is another guy who has been hard to trust lately. However, a matchup with the Falcons should be nice for him. It certainly will not help his consistency ratings though if he suddenly has another good week.

The Denver, Detroit, Green Bay, New York Jets and Tennessee situations are frustrating for all involved. Until we see a clear number one emerge in those situations all of them remain volatile players who will be hard to trust on a weekly basis. You can add the number nine ranked Coleman to that list this week with the return of Devonta Freeman from a knee injury. Coleman has not really made a case for remaining the lead back and I expect him to go back into a time share with Freeman in the short term. Both of those could be really frustrating for the next few weeks.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Davante Adams	74.5	18.63	1.92	16.7	20.55	0.1	199.07
2	Adam Thielen	99.3	24.83	6.35	18.47	31.18	0.26	121.85
3	Geronimo Allison	59.9	14.98	2.35	12.63	17.32	0.16	110.52
4	Antonio Brown	74.2	18.55	3.89	14.66	22.44	0.21	106.99
5	Will Fuller	61.3	20.43	5.23	15.2	25.67	0.26	100.24
6	Mike Evans	89.6	22.4	7.14	15.26	29.54	0.32	92.7
7	Brandin Cooks	78.8	19.7	5.41	14.29	25.11	0.27	91.4
8	John Brown	67.2	16.8	3.82	12.98	20.62	0.23	90.75
9	Jarvis Landry	61.2	15.3	3.13	12.17	18.43	0.2	90
10	Kenny Golladay	68	17	4.03	12.97	21.03	0.24	88.79
11	Tyler Lockett	60.4	15.1	3.48	11.62	18.58	0.23	80.65
12	Michael Thomas	104.5	26.13	13.57	12.55	39.7	0.52	76.42
13	Golden Tate	85.8	21.45	8.53	12.92	29.98	0.4	75.36
14	DeAndre Hopkins	85.6	21.4	8.58	12.82	29.98	0.4	74.79
15	AJ Green	79.7	19.93	7.94	11.99	27.86	0.4	69.96
16	Julio Jones	80.3	20.08	8.3	11.77	28.38	0.41	68.62
17	T.Y. Hilton	62.4	15.6	4.61	10.99	20.21	0.3	68.35
18	Juju Smith-Schuster	78.6	19.65	8.81	10.84	28.46	0.45	63.49
19	Odell Beckham Jr	65	16.25	5.85	10.4	22.1	0.36	61.41
20	Cooper Kupp	84.1	21.03	11.05	9.98	32.07	0.53	61.05
21	Emmanuel Sanders	72.7	18.18	8.09	10.08	26.27	0.45	58.99
22	Quincy Enunwa	54.8	13.7	4.2	9.5	17.9	0.31	58.35
23	Tyler Boyd	73.4	18.35	8.78	9.57	27.13	0.48	56.71
24	DeSean Jackson	77.4	19.35	10.53	8.82	29.88	0.54	54.91
25	Robert Woods	76.2	19.05	11.28	7.77	30.33	0.59	51.24
26	Tyreek Hill	78.5	19.63	12.22	7.4	31.85	0.62	51.14
27	Marvin Jones	50.3	12.58	4.19	8.39	16.76	0.33	50.35
28	Stefon Diggs	77	19.25	12.13	7.12	31.38	0.63	49.81
29	Tyrell Williams	30	7.5	1.35	6.15	8.85	0.18	49.12
30	Willie Snead	43.8	10.95	3.3	7.65	14.25	0.3	47.25
31	Devin Funchess	38.5	12.83	5.06	7.77	17.9	0.39	45.35
32	Cameron Meredith	14.3	7.15	1.34	5.81	8.49	0.19	45.2
33	Michael Crabtree	42.4	10.6	3.33	7.27	13.93	0.31	44.39
34	Keenan Allen	58.2	14.55	7.33	7.22	21.88	0.5	43.43
35	Calvin Ridley	78.7	19.68	16.66	3.01	36.34	0.85	42.91
36	Allen Robinson	46.7	11.68	4.54	7.14	16.21	0.39	41.71
37	Martavis Bryant	20.5	6.83	1.36	5.48	8.19	0.2	41.23
38	Dede Westbrook	57	14.25	7.61	6.64	21.86	0.53	40.92
39	Paul Richardson	28.1	9.37	2.82	6.55	12.19	0.3	40.5
40	Chris Godwin	52.3	13.08	6.31	6.76	19.39	0.48	40.16
41	Darius Jennings	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
42	Sterling Shepard	58.9	14.73	8.56	6.17	23.28	0.58	40.07
43	Ryan Grant	42.8	10.7	3.94	6.76	14.64	0.37	39.79
44	Corey Davis	59.2	14.8	11.24	3.56	26.04	0.76	34.28
45	Albert Wilson	41.8	10.45	4.69	5.76	15.14	0.45	33.72
46	Danny Amendola	25.1	6.28	1.48	4.8	7.75	0.24	32.93
47	Nelson Agholor	49.5	12.38	7.65	4.72	20.03	0.62	32.39
48	Taylor Gabriel	56	14	10.96	3.04	24.96	0.78	31.88
49	Demaryius Thomas	42.8	10.7	5.53	5.17	16.23	0.52	31.39
50	Jordy Nelson	55.4	13.85	11.46	2.39	25.31	0.83	30.59

There are no major surprises in the top-25 here. Most of that group are heavily featured in their offense, either as a clear number one or in a scheme which spreads the ball around. Just outside that group are Hill and Jones. Hill is so big play dependent that his consistency is always going to be frustrating. As for Jones he has been marginalized a little by the emergence of Golladay and I expect to see him continue to be inconsistent week-to-week.

Allen Robinson finally got in the end zone which is nice to see but his value is so dependent on which Trubisky we see that it is scary. Further down, we have Corey Davis who could come into his own now as the lead receiver for Marcus Mariota. His quarterback struggles have meant he is low on this list but right now he is a must-start for me heading into Week 5.

The Miami receivers are extremely frustrating because they are talented. However, they have a lot of similar skill sets which means that on any given week any of them could see targets. It will be hard to trust any of them outside of best-ball formats this season. Finally, I am now officially terrified of Demaryius Thomas who is having a rough start to the season consistency wise. Thomas is now a borderline sit for me in 10- and 12-team leagues despite his immense talent. If I have a solid team that week I am likely sitting him but if I need a gamble then I will still throw him out there for his big-play ability.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Demetrius Harris	16.2	8.1	0.28	7.82	8.38	0.03	240.07
2	Jordan Reed	36.8	12.27	2.25	10.02	14.52	0.18	79.14
3	Eric Ebron	50	12.5	3.24	9.26	15.74	0.26	60.75
4	Zach Ertz	63.7	15.93	5.73	10.19	21.66	0.36	60.18
5	Kyle Rudolph	48.8	12.2	3.47	8.73	15.67	0.28	55.15
6	Jared Cook	75	18.75	11.95	6.8	30.7	0.64	48.16
7	Travis Kelce	71.7	17.93	11.84	6.09	29.76	0.66	45.07
8	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
9	George Kittle	55.6	13.9	8.32	5.58	22.22	0.6	37.13
10	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
11	Vance McDonald	38	12.67	7.9	4.76	20.57	0.62	32.97
12	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
13	Geoff Swaim	27.4	9.13	4.08	5.05	13.21	0.45	29.58
14	Jimmy Graham	38.9	9.73	5.27	4.46	14.99	0.54	27.68
15	Trey Burton	40.6	10.15	5.89	4.26	16.04	0.58	27.65
16	Ricky Seals-Jones	28.3	7.08	2.47	4.6	9.55	0.35	27.3
17	Rob Gronkowski	46.3	11.58	9.48	2.09	21.06	0.82	25.7
18	David Njoku	26.1	6.53	2.56	3.97	9.08	0.39	23.19
19	Mark Andrews	27.9	6.98	3.15	3.83	10.12	0.45	22.42
20	OJ Howard	39.2	9.8	7.97	1.83	17.77	0.81	21.84
21	Jordan Akins	14.4	3.6	0.77	2.83	4.37	0.21	20.43
22	Ben Watson	28.7	7.18	3.91	3.26	11.09	0.55	20.33
23	Jack Doyle	17	8.5	6.36	2.14	14.86	0.75	19.85
24	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	26	6.5	3.23	3.27	9.73	0.5	19.57
25	Jesse James	38.8	9.7	10.54	-0.84	20.24	1.09	18.62
26	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
27	Cameron Brate	24.3	8.1	7.02	1.08	15.12	0.87	17.45
28	Evan Engram	26.4	8.8	9.45	-0.65	18.25	1.07	16.99
29	Austin Hooper	30.5	7.63	6.29	1.33	13.92	0.82	16.87
30	Maxx Williams	23.9	5.98	3.52	2.46	9.49	0.59	16.13

I am going to ignore Demetrius Harris for now and focus on the guys ranked two or below. Reed has become one of the safest guys in the NFL and with Smith at quarterback I am not surprised. Expect another big week from Reed in Week 5 as the Redskins face the Saints. Ertz and Kelce are now truly rising to the top as expected and remain a must-start.

Rudolph will always frustrate but as long as he is getting red-zone targets he is impossible to ignore. Cook now appears to have fully emerged as a safe fantasy tight end weapon with Carr looking his way more and more.Graham and Burton are interesting. Graham is going to be touchdown dependent and Burton is Trubisky dependent. Both remain players you should consider starting but both are going to drive you wild.

This is such a variable position it is hard to get too deep. There are a handful of must-start options and then after that it truly is about playing the matchups at the tight end position.