Week 6 Consistency Reports - All Positions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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5. More Fantasy Football Analysis

We now have over a quarter of a seasons worth of data at our fingertips and the cream has well and truly risen to the top. There are still some interesting names high in the rankings at quarterback and tight end. However, these are generally more variable positions. That is why both positions are often streamed on a weekly basis while running backs and wide receivers are more consistently used. However, we can still see that at every position the consistency rankings are matching the eye test in a big way.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following weeks waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Philip Rivers	107.8	21.56	3.69	17.87	25.25	0.17	147.51
2	Alex Smith	65.18	16.3	2.7	13.6	18.99	0.17	114.64
3	CJ Beathard	42.48	21.24	4.84	16.4	26.08	0.23	114.52
4	Patrick Mahomes	131.12	26.22	8.43	17.8	34.65	0.32	107.82
5	Cam Newton	91.82	22.96	6.61	16.34	29.57	0.29	102.64
6	Deshaun Watson	112.94	22.59	6.56	16.03	29.15	0.29	100.39
7	Aaron Rodgers	108.58	21.72	6.09	15.63	27.81	0.28	99.16
8	Carson Wentz	58.96	19.65	5.59	14.06	25.24	0.28	88.74
9	Joe Flacco	90.3	18.06	4.7	13.36	22.76	0.26	87.39
10	Kirk Cousins	113.72	22.74	8.39	14.35	31.13	0.37	84.4
11	Matt Ryan	121.34	24.27	11.26	13.01	35.53	0.46	76.56
12	Andy Dalton	94.9	18.98	6.29	12.69	25.27	0.33	76.21
13	Drew Brees	122.92	24.58	12.13	12.46	36.71	0.49	74.43
14	Russell Wilson	81.64	16.33	4.59	11.74	20.92	0.28	74.38
15	Jared Goff	112.78	22.56	10.29	12.26	32.85	0.46	71.99
16	Ben Roethlisberger	108.46	21.69	9.91	11.78	31.6	0.46	69.18
17	Tom Brady	93.66	18.73	7.25	11.49	25.98	0.39	67.16
18	Andrew Luck	102.94	20.59	9.53	11.06	30.11	0.46	65.09
19	Blake Bortles	101.64	20.33	9.38	10.95	29.71	0.46	64.38
20	Ryan Fitzpatrick	100.44	25.11	16.39	8.72	41.5	0.65	63.59
21	Matthew Stafford	88.2	17.64	6.89	10.75	24.53	0.39	62.83
22	Eli Manning	74.44	14.89	4.73	10.15	19.62	0.32	61.7
23	Jimmy Garoppolo	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
24	Baker Mayfield	42.62	14.21	5.55	8.66	19.75	0.39	50.6
25	Dak Prescott	62.54	12.51	4.16	8.35	16.67	0.33	50.13
26	Mitch Trubisky	81.5	20.38	15.82	4.56	36.19	0.78	46.62
27	Derek Carr	78.14	15.63	8.56	7.07	24.19	0.55	44.16
28	Case Keenum	68.2	13.64	6.78	6.86	20.42	0.5	41.07
29	Sam Darnold	59.94	11.99	5.75	6.24	17.74	0.48	36.98
30	Ryan Tannehill	69.98	14	9.25	4.75	23.25	0.66	35.17

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. There are some really interesting names in the quarterback consistency rankings. There is no surprise that after matching up with the Jacksonville Jaguars defense that Mahomes has dropped a little. He threw his first interceptions of the season and failed to throw a single touchdown. However, the talent was still clearly there and he should bounce right back against the Patriots this week.

He has been replaced at the top by Rivers who has just done his thing. This week Rivers faces the impressive Browns defense. Prior to this game the best defense he had faced was probably the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. I think you still have to start Rivers this week but do not be surprised if the stat line is somewhat ugly. Beathard is putting up numbers this season in second place but I would struggle to trust him on the road in Green Bay in prime time.

There are some names that stand out to me just outside the top-10. Ryan is a must-start at home and a must-bench on the road at this point. Brees is a must-start in most games but is on a bye this week. Wilson will continue to be up and down but this is usually the point in the season where he starts to pick it up. Goff is must-start at home and matchup dependent on the road. Rothlisberger and that offense might be starting to figure it out and getting Bell back should make him more efficient. Brady is a bit of a pain for fantasy because he basically just does what the team needs to do to win. If handing the ball off 50 times is the best way to win that is what he will do. It will make him as frustrating as hell but this week I think the Patriots need to put up a ton of yards.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	137.5	27.5	3.64	23.86	31.14	0.13	234.98
2	Saquon Barkley	119.2	23.84	3.18	20.66	27.02	0.13	202.56
3	Melvin Gordon	123.5	24.7	5.69	19.01	30.39	0.23	131.95
4	Christian McCaffrey	85.1	21.28	5.11	16.17	26.38	0.24	109.92
5	Malcolm Brown	13.1	4.37	0.21	4.16	4.57	0.05	95.97
6	Alvin Kamara	139	27.8	15.58	12.22	43.38	0.56	77.41
7	Ezekiel Elliott	103.5	20.7	7.6	13.1	28.3	0.37	77.11
8	James White	100	20	7.32	12.68	27.32	0.37	74.63
9	TJ Yeldon	91.2	18.24	7.22	11.02	25.46	0.4	64.31
10	Joe Mixon	56.1	18.7	8.25	10.45	26.95	0.44	61.09
11	David Johnson	81.2	16.24	6.01	10.23	22.25	0.37	60.15
12	James Conner	110.1	22.02	12.72	9.3	34.74	0.58	60.13
13	Javorius Allen	67.7	13.54	4.1	9.44	17.64	0.3	58.26
14	Kerryon Johnson	54.4	10.88	2.53	8.35	13.41	0.23	57.68
15	Austin Ekeler	73	14.6	5.21	9.39	19.81	0.36	55.55
16	Marshawn Lynch	70.1	14.02	4.98	9.04	19	0.36	53.47
17	Carlos Hyde	73.7	14.74	5.62	9.12	20.36	0.38	53.43
18	Raheem Mostert	3.7	1.85	0.07	1.78	1.92	0.04	50.25
19	Alex Collins	56.4	11.28	3.39	7.89	14.67	0.3	48.81
20	Kareem Hunt	79.2	15.84	7.66	8.18	23.5	0.48	48.6
21	Derrick Henry	26.1	5.22	0.67	4.55	5.89	0.13	45.98
22	Royce Freeman	49.1	9.82	2.74	7.08	12.56	0.28	44.97
23	Devonta Freeman	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
24	Tevin Coleman	56.4	11.28	4.16	7.12	15.44	0.37	41.9
25	Matt Breida	68.9	13.78	7.03	6.75	20.81	0.51	40.8
26	Nyheim Hines	73.3	14.66	8.27	6.39	22.93	0.56	40.63
27	Adrian Peterson	62.8	15.7	9.96	5.74	25.66	0.63	40.45
28	Chris Thompson	62	15.5	10.12	5.38	25.62	0.65	39.23
29	Isaiah Crowell	78.6	15.72	11.88	3.84	27.6	0.76	36.52
30	Phillip Lindsay	59.3	11.86	6.21	5.65	18.07	0.52	34.5
31	Bilal Powell	52.9	10.58	4.83	5.75	15.41	0.46	33.73
32	Lamar Miller	41.9	10.48	4.72	5.75	15.2	0.45	33.71
33	Wendell Smallwood	46.6	11.65	6.6	5.05	18.25	0.57	32.23
34	Giovani Bernard	55.3	13.83	10.74	3.09	24.56	0.78	31.63
35	Jay Ajayi	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
36	Chris Carson	47.4	11.85	7.45	4.4	19.3	0.63	30.69
37	Sony Michel	46.2	11.55	7	4.55	18.55	0.61	30.6
38	Dion Lewis	57.7	11.54	7.06	4.48	18.6	0.61	30.4
39	Ito Smith	34.7	8.68	3.49	5.18	12.17	0.4	30.21
40	Jordan Howard	44.1	11.03	6.37	4.65	17.4	0.58	30.1
41	Aaron Jones	28.8	9.6	4.97	4.63	14.57	0.52	28.13
42	Tarik Cohen	50.8	12.7	12.08	0.62	24.78	0.95	26.05
43	Theo Riddick	39.8	7.96	3.54	4.42	11.5	0.44	25.87
44	Kenyan Drake	56.7	11.34	9.41	1.93	20.75	0.83	25.01
45	Corey Clement	32.6	10.87	8.46	2.41	19.32	0.78	24.83
46	LeSean McCoy	33.4	8.35	4.32	4.03	12.67	0.52	24.47
47	Jalen Richard	47.4	9.48	6.29	3.19	15.77	0.66	23.76
48	Dalvin Cook	29.5	9.83	7.01	2.83	16.84	0.71	23.64
49	Alfred Morris	41.4	8.28	4.67	3.61	12.95	0.56	22.96
50	Ty Montgomery	36.4	7.28	3.47	3.81	10.75	0.48	22.55

Six of the top-seven are studs, with Malcolm Brown continuing to be annoyingly consistent at four points a game. Completely useless for fantasy but very consistent. At this stage you just have to ride the James White train until it is over. He is target dependent, having a season high of eight rushes but right now Brady trusts him a lot.

Around the top-10 we have a cluster of players who have a floor around eight or nine points with ceiling in the 20s or 30s. All of them are must-plays for the time being. The same goes for Ekeler at 15. Allen is extremely touchdown dependent and that makes him scary in standard type leagues.

Henry stood out above Lewis for the Titans last week but neither are getting enough carries to be a startable option right now. Freeman and Coleman are must-starts if the other is out. Right now neither can be trusted implicitly when both are healthy.

Breida is great until he gets hurt which is really frustrating. Crowell and Powell are going to be impossible to trust but with a rookie quarterback you kind of have to think the Jets will keep riding them when they can. Freeman and Lindsay are also virtually useless while both are healthy. The final frustrating pairs are Howard and Cohen and Cook and Murray. Their teams are not really committing to any of them and they are matchup and game plan dependent.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Keke Coutee	39	19.5	3.11	16.39	22.61	0.16	141.72
2	Adam Thielen	123.9	24.78	5.5	19.28	30.28	0.22	136.39
3	Geronimo Allison	59.9	14.98	2.35	12.63	17.32	0.16	110.52
4	Davante Adams	103.5	20.7	4.93	15.77	25.63	0.24	107.62
5	Kenny Golladay	87.8	17.56	3.7	13.86	21.26	0.21	100.8
6	Antonio Brown	102.3	20.46	5.44	15.02	25.9	0.27	97.41
7	Mike Evans	89.6	22.4	7.14	15.26	29.54	0.32	92.7
8	Brandin Cooks	78.8	19.7	5.41	14.29	25.11	0.27	91.4
9	Tyler Lockett	79.8	15.96	3.57	12.39	19.53	0.22	87.23
10	DeAndre Hopkins	109.7	21.94	7.53	14.41	29.47	0.34	85.9
11	Jarvis Landry	73.1	14.62	3.11	11.51	17.73	0.21	83.33
12	AJ Green	96.9	19.38	6.98	12.4	26.36	0.36	73.19
13	TY Hilton	62.4	15.6	4.61	10.99	20.21	0.3	68.35
14	John Brown	77	15.4	4.55	10.85	19.95	0.3	67.49
15	Cooper Kupp	105.1	21.02	9.57	11.45	30.59	0.46	67.21
16	Odell Beckham Jr	92.1	18.42	7.01	11.41	25.43	0.38	66.8
17	Michael Thomas	115.9	23.18	13.47	9.71	36.65	0.58	63.07
18	Emmanuel Sanders	88.9	17.78	7.06	10.72	24.84	0.4	62.53
19	Juju Smith-Schuster	92	18.4	8.12	10.28	26.52	0.44	60.08
20	Julio Jones	91.5	18.3	8.21	10.09	26.51	0.45	59.08
21	Golden Tate	95	19	9.2	9.8	28.2	0.48	58.24
22	Robert Woods	95.7	19.14	9.77	9.37	28.91	0.51	56.65
23	Stefon Diggs	98.6	19.72	10.55	9.17	30.27	0.54	56.57
24	DeSean Jackson	77.4	19.35	10.53	8.82	29.88	0.54	54.91
25	Willie Snead	54.3	10.86	2.87	7.99	13.73	0.26	51.99
26	Michael Crabtree	55	11	3.02	7.98	14.02	0.27	51.12
27	Keenan Allen	75.7	15.14	6.48	8.66	21.62	0.43	50.5
28	Tyrell Williams	39.6	7.92	1.5	6.42	9.42	0.19	49.72
29	Tyreek Hill	91.2	18.24	11.03	7.21	29.27	0.6	48.41
30	Darius Jennings	4.9	1.63	0.06	1.58	1.69	0.04	47.84
31	Tyler Boyd	81.8	16.36	8.81	7.55	25.17	0.54	46.74
32	Paul Richardson	37.1	9.28	2.31	6.97	11.58	0.25	46.54
33	Ryan Grant	54.6	10.92	3.44	7.48	14.36	0.32	45.55
34	Will Fuller	64.8	16.2	9.48	6.72	25.68	0.59	43.87
35	Marvin Jones	58.1	11.62	4.21	7.41	15.83	0.36	43.71
36	Devin Funchess	47.8	11.95	4.5	7.45	16.45	0.38	43.7
37	Allen Robinson	46.7	11.68	4.54	7.14	16.21	0.39	41.71
38	Sterling Shepard	70.4	14.08	7.55	6.53	21.63	0.54	40.34
39	Chris Godwin	52.3	13.08	6.31	6.76	19.39	0.48	40.16
40	Dede Westbrook	65.5	13.1	7.08	6.02	20.18	0.54	37.35
41	Demaryius Thomas	64.3	12.86	6.8	6.06	19.66	0.53	37.17
42	Calvin Ridley	86.5	17.3	15.38	1.92	32.68	0.89	36.76
43	Danny Amendola	31.1	6.22	1.29	4.93	7.51	0.21	36.32
44	Albert Wilson	51.1	10.22	4.1	6.12	14.32	0.4	35.72
45	Cameron Meredith	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
46	Jordy Nelson	69.7	13.94	9.93	4.01	23.87	0.71	33.52
47	Alshon Jeffery	30.4	15.2	13.15	2.05	28.35	0.87	32.77
48	Corey Davis	68.1	13.62	10.09	3.53	23.71	0.74	32.01
49	Taylor Gabriel	56	14	10.96	3.04	24.96	0.78	31.88
50	Mohamed Sanu	57.3	11.46	6.44	5.02	17.9	0.56	31.85

Coutee has come out firing and seems to be a huge part of this offense. It will be interesting to see if he has a long-term affect on Will Fuller's value. Allison at three feels like a must-start when healthy and Lockett at nine seems to be seeing at leat a couple of deep balls a game from Wilson. At this stage he is becoming hard to ignore as he is pulling in at least one of them.

Jones, Tate and Woods around the 20 mark are frustrating because of the amount of weapons in their offense. All remain must-starts but there will be frustrating weeks. The same goes for Allen and Hill.

Boyd is an interesting name simply because I expect him to have success this week. If the Bengals matchup with a decent number one back then they will need to lean on Boyd to relieve the pressure on Green and Dalton. Thomas is driving me insane at this point and I have lost all faith. You ether have to blindly start him or commit to sitting him, but whichever you do will likely be the wrong choice. I expect Davis to draw coverage from Jimmy Smith this week which could make for a tough day for the Titans number one.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Zach Ertz	90.7	18.14	7.01	11.13	25.15	0.39	65.07
2	Kyle Rudolph	57.9	11.58	3.31	8.27	14.89	0.29	52.15
3	Travis Kelce	86.7	17.34	10.33	7.01	27.67	0.6	46.43
4	Eric Ebron	81.5	16.3	8.95	7.35	25.25	0.55	45.99
5	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
6	George Kittle	68.9	13.78	7.21	6.57	20.99	0.52	40.13
7	Jared Cook	81	16.2	11.82	4.38	28.02	0.73	38.41
8	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
9	Jimmy Graham	52.5	10.5	4.88	5.62	15.38	0.46	33.09
10	Geoff Swaim	35.9	8.98	3.35	5.63	12.32	0.37	33.05
11	Jermaine Gresham	4	2	0.14	1.86	2.14	0.07	30.28
12	Jordan Reed	39.9	9.98	4.94	5.04	14.91	0.5	30.13
13	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
14	Rob Gronkowski	59.8	11.96	8.26	3.7	20.22	0.69	29.28
15	Trey Burton	40.6	10.15	5.89	4.26	16.04	0.58	27.65
16	David Njoku	39	7.8	3.61	4.19	11.41	0.46	24.66
17	Austin Hooper	47.2	9.44	6.79	2.65	16.23	0.72	22.56
18	Ben Watson	35.7	7.14	3.39	3.75	10.53	0.47	22.18
19	OJ Howard	39.2	9.8	7.97	1.83	17.77	0.81	21.84
20	Vance McDonald	39.6	9.9	8.5	1.4	18.4	0.86	21.43
21	Jack Doyle	17	8.5	6.36	2.14	14.86	0.75	19.85
22	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
23	Cameron Brate	24.3	8.1	7.02	1.08	15.12	0.87	17.45
24	Mark Andrews	30.5	6.1	3.36	2.74	9.46	0.55	17.19
25	Evan Engram	26.4	8.8	9.45	-0.65	18.25	1.07	16.99
26	Jesse James	42.8	8.56	9.48	-0.92	18.04	1.11	16.29
27	Jake Butt	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44
28	Demetrius Harris	17.7	5.9	3.82	2.08	9.72	0.65	15.02
29	Ricky Seals-Jones	28.3	5.66	3.82	1.84	9.48	0.68	14.04
30	Maxx Williams	26.7	5.34	3.36	1.98	8.7	0.63	13.83

The top three names do not really surprise me and as long as Jack Doyle is absent Ebron is going to be right around the top five.. Kittle and Cook have both been great and Graham seems to be finding that connection with Rodgers now. Swaim has stepped up and become a decent option for the Cowboys. However, his ceiling is not high.

Reed, Gronkowski and Burton remain must-starts. Their rankings look low but if you remove the low ceiling guys and the injured Eifert, they rank 9-10-11. I believe Howard should be right there and the injury hit game in Chicago has hurt his ranking, but his big play dependency might be an issue some weeks.

Finally, McDonald and James are likely to frustrate this year as both can feature game-to-game depending on the game plan.